Houston Texans @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Nov 21
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 465
Odds: Tennessee Titans -10, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Tennessee Team Total Over (27.5 -115)

Alternate play is Strong Opinion game over 44.5

Lean – TENNESSEE (-10) over Houston

The Titans running back trio of D’Onta Foreman, Adrian Peterson and Jeremy McNichols combined for a single first down on the ground last Sunday with one forced missed tackle and zero explosive rushes. Tennessee’s two highest pass play rates over expectation games have come in the last two weeks without Derrick Henry. I expect the offense to continue leaning on Ryan Tannehill in this game against Houston’s 30th-rated pass defense. However, Texans interior defender Maliek Collins ranks 12th in pass rushing efficiency and will be in Tannehill’s face all afternoon blowing by RG Nate Davis, who’s surrendered 29 pressures (5th-most).

Houston’s offense has scored in the single digits on five occasions this year, but Tyrod Taylor is still clearly an upgrade over Davis Mills in my mind. Taylor is averaging 1.2 yppp more than Mills this season even after gaining only 199 net passing yards in Miami before the bye. Texans C Justin Britt is out with a knee injury which is a dream scenario for interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency. Backups Justin McCray and Jimmy Morrissey are surrendering a 10% pressure rate combined.

Our model favors the Titans by 14.1 points, with a predicted total of 48.4 points, but the backdoor potential for Houston has me favoring the Tennessee Team Total Over 27.5 at -120 odds or better as a Strong Opinion. The alternate play is a Strong Opinion on Over 44.5.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texans
  • Titans
HOU
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.00 34.44
  • Succ Pass Plays 43.8% 51.3%
  • Sack Rate 8.0% 6.1%
  • Int Rate 3.7% 3.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.9% 17.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.5% 41.9%
  • NYPP 5.68 7.23



Rush


  • Rush Plays 22.67 30.22
  • RB YPR 3.13 4.61
  • Stuff Rate 25.0% 26.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 36.8% 50.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 28.4% 46.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.34 4.53




Game

  • All Snaps 58.67 64.67
  • Early Down Succ 43.0% 53.9%
  • Succ Rate 41.1% 50.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 34.5% 43.5%
  • Yards Per Play 4.77 5.97
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.31 29.92
  • Run Ratio 38.6% 46.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.45 29.82
  • Game Control -5.80 5.80
 
  • Points 14.22 28.67
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