Houston Texans @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Oct 18
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 257
Odds: Tennessee Titans -3.5, Total: 52.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Houston (+3.5/+3) over TENNESSEE

The 58 points scored in Tuesday night’s Titans-Bills game was deceptive, as there were only 694 yards of combined offense and 60 of those yards came on a garbage time Matt Barkley drive as the clock winded down. Teams this season have been able to score more efficiently thus far, resulting in the average yards per point dropping to 14.3 from the typical average 15. Even using the 14.3 yards per point we’ve seen thus far, there should’ve only been about 48.5 point scored combined on Tuesday night. Tennessee’s offense gained a mediocre 5.4 yppl but the Titans were set up by short fields from takeaways and converted all six of their Redzone opportunities into touchdowns, which isn’t sustainable moving forward.  The Titans and Bills were also a combined 19-for-27 on third down (70%), well above the league-average mark 43%. That game may have led to the total on this game opening up too high and we pounced on Under 55 points when it was available on Wednesday morning.

Titans’ receiver AJ Brown had 7 receptions in his return last week, six of them resulting in first downs and the other being a touchdown, but he will face a tougher matchup on Sunday. Bradley Roby will likely shadow Brown and he has yet to concede more the 45 receiving yards in a game this year.

There were some encouraging signs for Houston’s offense in their first game without Bill O’Brien, as Deshaun Watson recorded season-highs in play-action rate and air yards per attempt. However, Houston’s ground game ranks 4th-worst and they won’t be able to expose Tennessee’s soft run defense, which ranks last by our metrics.

Our model favors the Titans by 1.5 with a predicted total of 50.2 points. The Under was released to our subscribers at Under 55 on Wednesday morning (Best Bet at 54.5 or higher, Strong Opinion at 54) but the total has moved down and out of Best Bet range – although the NFL subscribers got a great number on the under.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texans
  • Titans
HOU
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.0 33.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.4% 54.4%
  • Sack Rate 12.2% 7.5%
  • Int Rate 3.2% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 23.3% 16.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.5% 22.0%
  • NYPP 6.8 6.1



Rush


  • Rush Plays 18.0 36.3
  • RB YPR 3.3 5.5
  • Stuff Rate 17.8% 13.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 38.1% 48.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 13.8% 55.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.4 5.2




Game

  • All Snaps 54.0 69.3
  • Early Down Succ 48.5% 53.4%
  • Succ Rate 46.7% 51.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.6% 37.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.7 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.2 31.0
  • Run Ratio 33.2% 52.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 24.2 30.7
  • Game Control -5.0 5.0
 
  • Points 19.0 31.7
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