Houston Texans @

San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Jan 2
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 123
Odds: San Francisco 49ers -12.5, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (-12) over Houston

Lean – Under (44)

Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a grade three sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament last week against the Titans and it looks like we will see rookie Trey Lance at the helm versus the Texans. Lance averaged 6.0 yppp in his only start against the Cardinals and added 16 carries for 89 rushing yards. We have Lance 3.7 points worse than Garoppolo. The 49ers have just a 53% pass rate (28th) and Kyle Shanahan will likely focus on the ground game to avoid mistakes from Lance.

Davis Mills is averaging 7.0 yppp the last three games since taking over as the starter and he should have time in the pocket to operate on Sunday. Pro Bowl edge defender Nick Bosa ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency but he will be limited as Houston’s tackles are conceding just 3.0 pressures per game. Texans WR Brandin Cooks is averaging 1.97 yards per route run (19th) and he will line up across from backup 49ers CB Ambry Thomas.

Our model makes San Francisco a 13.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 42.3 points and Houston applies to a 12-56-1 ATS road letdown situation. I’ll lean with the Niners and the Under.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texans
  • 49ers
HOU
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 34.67 34.67
  • Succ Pass Plays 43.7% 51.3%
  • Sack Rate 7.5% 5.8%
  • Int Rate 2.7% 3.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 14.6% 16.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 33.8% 37.9%
  • NYPP 5.54 6.91



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.80 30.20
  • RB YPR 3.19 4.76
  • Stuff Rate 25.8% 25.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 37.6% 49.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 28.5% 48.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.42 4.67




Game

  • All Snaps 59.47 64.87
  • Early Down Succ 42.9% 53.7%
  • Succ Rate 41.1% 50.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 32.3% 41.7%
  • Yards Per Play 4.65 5.87
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.38 29.42
  • Run Ratio 41.7% 46.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -3.37 3.37
 
  • Points 16.53 26.73
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