Game Analysis
NEW ORLEANS (-7/-6.5) vs Houston
The Saints offense will revolve around 3 big playmakers in 2019 but only one of them has a favorable matchup versus the Texans. Michael Thomas was the only wide receiver to add more than 100 points of value last year and he will line up across from Johnathan Joseph, who is probably in line for some regression at 35 years old. Meanwhile, Jared Cook gained 1.82 yards per route run in 2018 (7th) but likely won’t be able to do much damage against new safety Tashaun Gipson. Alvin Kamara was one of 5 running backs to average more than 2 yards per route run, but he should be limited by Benardrick McKinney, who ranked 3rd among linebackers by surrendering only 0.60 yards per cover snap last season. New Orleans has rookie Erik McCoy playing center this year after Max Unger started every game since 2015 and Drew Brees may have to take more responsibility organizing the offensive line pre-snap, which could have some negative affect.
The Texans traded for left tackle Laremy Tunsil to improve an offensive line that allowed the most pressures in the NFL last season. Giving up two first round picks and a second rounder is definitely too much for the fourth year left tackle and the Texans are still likely to have issues with Saints’ pass-rusher Cam Jordan lining up on the other side of the line. DeAndre Hopkins averaged 2.51 yards per route run (5th) in 2018, but he’ll be challenged in the season opener with Marshon Lattimore guarding him. Duke Johnson is one of the more elusive running backs in the league and I expect him to provide solid production in an expanded role after Lamar Miller tore his ACL.
I think the market is underrating both these defenses, as our priors have each of them ranked in the top 10. Our model favors New Orleans by 6.1 with a predicted total of 50.3 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.5
39.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.7%
46.4%
-
Sack Rate
10.5%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.7%
19.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.4%
39.9%
-
NYPP
6.6
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.7
24.7
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
23.2%
27.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.7%
40.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.9%
32.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
65.2
64.1
-
Early Down Succ
47.4%
44.9%
-
Succ Rate
44.6%
44.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.8%
38.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
28.8
-
Run Ratio
44.2%
38.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.6
25.3
-
Game Control
1.6
-1.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.6
38.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.8%
48.6%
-
Sack Rate
3.9%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
1.7%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.3%
18.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.8%
40.9%
-
NYPP
7.3
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.1
22.1
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
17.9%
25.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.9%
45.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.5%
33.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
63.6
60.7
-
Early Down Succ
56.1%
50.1%
-
Succ Rate
53.4%
47.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.1%
39.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.3
28.7
-
Run Ratio
45.6%
36.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.0
26.0
-
Game Control
2.7
-2.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NE |
20 – 27 L |
-10.6 |
29.7% /
48.8% |
8.1% /
4.9% |
2.9% /
2.6% |
4.3 /
6.5 |
47.1% /
38.7% |
26.5% /
9.7% |
4.9 /
3.9 |
71 /
72 |
43.1% /
47.4% |
38.0% /
44.4% |
37.5% /
38.0% |
4.6 /
5.4 |
1.4% /
2.8% |
47.9% /
43.1% |
35.4 /
25.4 |
| 2 |
@TEN |
17 – 20 L |
-6.4 |
47.2% /
39.1% |
11.1% /
4.3% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
8.0 |
42.3% /
35.3% |
11.5% /
14.7% |
5.7 /
2.9 |
62 /
57 |
46.0% /
35.0% |
45.2% /
36.8% |
53.1% /
27.9% |
7.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.9% /
59.6% |
26.6 /
23.2 |
| 3 |
NYG |
22 – 27 L |
-7.6 |
51.2% /
60.6% |
7.0% /
12.1% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
8.6 /
8.0 |
42.1% /
33.3% |
36.8% /
25.9% |
3.1 /
4.2 |
62 /
60 |
50.0% /
47.8% |
48.4% /
48.3% |
53.4% /
41.4% |
6.9 /
6.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
30.6% /
45.0% |
28.9 /
22.2 |
| 4 |
@IND |
37 – 34 W |
6.7 |
53.1% /
48.5% |
14.3% /
6.1% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
6.6 |
42.9% /
41.2% |
28.6% /
41.2% |
3.4 /
2.4 |
84 /
83 |
49.2% /
44.6% |
48.8% /
47.0% |
37.1% /
26.6% |
5.5 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
2.4% |
41.7% /
20.5% |
33.4 /
24.1 |
| 5 |
DAL |
19 – 16 W |
-0.3 |
60.0% /
41.9% |
2.2% /
6.5% |
2.3% /
6.9% |
8.3 /
6.3 |
32.3% /
37.9% |
32.3% /
31.0% |
2.8 /
3.4 |
76 /
60 |
53.3% /
43.2% |
48.7% /
40.0% |
30.1% /
53.1% |
6.1 /
4.9 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
40.8% /
48.3% |
27.9 /
30.8 |
| 6 |
BUF |
20 – 13 W |
4.3 |
27.3% /
29.0% |
21.2% /
6.5% |
7.7% /
6.9% |
4.3 /
4.2 |
37.5% /
40.7% |
29.2% /
22.2% |
3.1 /
3.7 |
57 /
58 |
34.9% /
32.6% |
31.6% /
34.5% |
34.3% /
46.3% |
3.8 /
3.9 |
1.8% /
1.7% |
42.1% /
46.6% |
36.5 /
28.2 |
| 7 |
@JAC |
20 – 7 W |
10.6 |
36.0% /
47.8% |
4.0% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
5.2 /
4.1 |
54.1% /
31.8% |
13.5% /
27.3% |
3.8 /
3.2 |
62 /
68 |
47.7% /
41.7% |
46.8% /
42.6% |
21.3% /
13.1% |
4.4 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
59.7% /
32.4% |
36.3 /
20.0 |
| 8 |
MIA |
42 – 23 W |
7.4 |
45.0% /
40.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
12.0 /
6.4 |
40.0% /
64.0% |
20.0% /
20.0% |
5.4 /
4.6 |
55 /
65 |
39.0% /
54.9% |
41.8% /
49.2% |
64.2% /
34.3% |
7.8 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
63.6% /
38.5% |
29.7 /
25.3 |
| 9 |
@DEN |
19 – 17 W |
3.8 |
53.6% /
47.7% |
14.3% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
6.2 |
39.4% /
35.0% |
30.3% /
40.0% |
3.0 /
3.8 |
61 /
64 |
51.1% /
43.8% |
45.9% /
43.8% |
10.7% /
38.5% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
54.1% /
31.3% |
31.4 /
22.5 |
| 11 |
@WAS |
23 – 21 W |
4.8 |
51.9% /
34.1% |
11.1% /
11.4% |
8.3% /
5.1% |
6.7 /
3.5 |
41.9% /
58.6% |
19.4% /
13.8% |
4.5 /
4.3 |
58 /
73 |
50.0% /
45.5% |
46.6% /
43.8% |
44.4% /
19.4% |
5.5 /
3.8 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
53.4% /
39.7% |
31.8 /
34.4 |
| 12 |
TEN |
34 – 17 W |
8.6 |
64.3% /
48.3% |
14.3% /
20.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
9.0 |
47.1% /
34.8% |
8.8% /
26.1% |
8.3 /
4.6 |
62 /
52 |
60.4% /
46.2% |
54.8% /
42.3% |
58.0% /
55.6% |
7.5 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
54.8% /
44.2% |
25.7 /
24.8 |
| 13 |
CLE |
29 – 13 W |
14.2 |
45.7% /
55.8% |
11.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
7.0% |
5.6 /
9.2 |
48.7% /
55.6% |
7.7% /
33.3% |
4.8 /
3.4 |
74 /
52 |
47.4% /
63.4% |
47.3% /
55.8% |
37.2% /
52.6% |
5.2 /
8.2 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
52.7% /
17.3% |
29.5 /
19.9 |
| 14 |
IND |
21 – 24 L |
-3.4 |
39.5% /
58.1% |
11.6% /
4.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
5.3 /
9.0 |
44.0% /
34.8% |
28.0% /
30.4% |
3.6 /
2.2 |
68 /
66 |
41.2% /
55.8% |
41.2% /
50.0% |
45.1% /
49.3% |
4.6 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.8% /
34.8% |
22.3 /
25.3 |
| 15 |
@NYJ |
29 – 22 W |
3.8 |
44.1% /
48.8% |
17.6% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
5.6 |
29.4% /
35.5% |
47.1% /
35.5% |
2.8 /
2.9 |
51 /
72 |
46.3% /
40.4% |
39.2% /
43.1% |
74.5% /
34.3% |
5.6 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
33.3% /
43.1% |
35.6 /
28.5 |
| 16 |
@PHI |
30 – 32 L |
-2.8 |
47.7% /
51.0% |
9.1% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
7.0 /
9.1 |
36.8% /
31.8% |
26.3% /
45.5% |
3.3 /
2.6 |
63 /
73 |
48.1% /
38.5% |
44.4% /
45.2% |
33.4% /
57.2% |
5.9 /
7.1 |
1.6% /
2.7% |
30.2% /
30.1% |
36.2 /
24.8 |
| 17 |
JAC |
20 – 3 W |
9.3 |
41.5% /
32.3% |
14.6% /
9.7% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
5.1 /
2.9 |
42.4% /
18.8% |
15.2% /
37.5% |
4.1 /
1.9 |
74 /
47 |
44.4% /
29.4% |
41.9% /
27.7% |
36.5% /
18.5% |
4.6 /
2.5 |
1.4% /
2.1% |
44.6% /
34.0% |
31.5 /
25.4 |
| 18 |
IND |
7 – 21 L |
-15.7 |
38.5% /
56.3% |
5.8% /
0.0% |
2.0% /
3.1% |
4.2 /
6.9 |
75.0% /
51.4% |
12.5% /
17.1% |
6.6 /
5.7 |
68 /
67 |
54.0% /
52.9% |
47.1% /
53.7% |
22.7% /
46.9% |
4.7 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.5% /
52.2% |
21.2 /
24.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
TB |
40 – 48 L |
-7.4 |
73.9% /
64.3% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
14.9 |
69.2% /
47.1% |
23.1% /
20.6% |
3.3 /
3.3 |
59 /
62 |
77.6% /
56.5% |
72.9% /
54.8% |
36.4% /
63.1% |
8.1 /
8.5 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
22.0% /
54.8% |
25.9 /
26.4 |
| 2 |
CLE |
21 – 18 W |
-2.8 |
63.2% /
48.5% |
7.9% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
5.6 /
7.1 |
39.1% /
33.3% |
26.1% /
14.8% |
2.7 /
3.4 |
61 /
60 |
60.4% /
43.5% |
54.1% /
41.7% |
30.9% /
43.4% |
4.5 /
5.5 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
45.0% |
35.0 /
28.4 |
| 3 |
@ATL |
43 – 37 W |
0.3 |
56.0% /
63.2% |
2.0% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
9.4 |
55.6% /
22.7% |
14.8% /
45.5% |
5.3 /
2.2 |
77 /
60 |
57.4% /
52.1% |
55.8% /
48.3% |
38.0% /
36.4% |
6.9 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.1% /
36.7% |
29.8 /
24.1 |
| 4 |
@NYG |
33 – 18 W |
3.5 |
42.9% /
56.8% |
2.9% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
5.3 |
53.1% /
53.3% |
9.4% /
20.0% |
5.3 /
4.3 |
67 /
59 |
51.0% /
58.3% |
47.8% /
55.9% |
55.8% /
29.4% |
5.8 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
47.8% /
25.4% |
33.9 /
22.5 |
| 5 |
WAS |
43 – 19 W |
15.4 |
64.5% /
42.9% |
6.5% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
11.3 /
5.8 |
40.6% /
50.0% |
6.3% /
27.8% |
3.1 /
2.2 |
63 /
60 |
54.9% /
48.8% |
52.4% /
45.0% |
54.8% /
51.2% |
7.1 /
4.7 |
1.6% /
1.7% |
50.8% /
30.0% |
36.2 /
33.4 |
| 7 |
@BAL |
24 – 23 W |
-1.6 |
45.2% /
46.3% |
3.2% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
6.7 |
51.3% /
52.2% |
12.8% /
30.4% |
3.4 /
3.3 |
70 /
64 |
48.0% /
50.0% |
48.6% /
48.4% |
31.3% /
19.7% |
4.8 /
5.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
55.7% /
35.9% |
27.6 /
21.8 |
| 8 |
@MIN |
30 – 20 W |
5.9 |
62.5% /
55.6% |
0.0% /
8.9% |
4.2% /
2.4% |
6.8 /
7.5 |
48.3% /
40.9% |
13.8% /
31.8% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
53 /
67 |
56.8% /
50.9% |
54.7% /
50.7% |
34.1% /
40.2% |
5.1 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
54.7% /
32.8% |
38.3 /
21.6 |
| 9 |
LA |
45 – 35 W |
6.9 |
58.3% /
55.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
9.6 /
9.8 |
47.1% /
36.8% |
11.8% /
21.1% |
4.1 /
4.8 |
70 /
59 |
51.9% /
53.1% |
52.9% /
49.2% |
36.8% /
48.0% |
7.0 /
8.2 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
48.6% /
32.2% |
31.4 /
30.0 |
| 10 |
@CIN |
51 – 14 W |
21.4 |
70.4% /
44.4% |
0.0% /
14.8% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
9.8 /
6.4 |
68.1% /
62.5% |
10.6% /
6.3% |
5.2 /
6.9 |
74 /
43 |
72.9% /
61.8% |
68.9% /
51.2% |
45.6% /
61.3% |
6.9 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
63.5% /
37.2% |
38.8 /
25.9 |
| 11 |
PHI |
48 – 7 W |
20.4 |
68.8% /
36.1% |
0.0% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
9.1% |
11.7 /
3.8 |
45.9% /
58.3% |
27.0% /
25.0% |
4.7 /
4.8 |
69 /
48 |
57.1% /
47.2% |
56.5% /
41.7% |
56.6% /
14.3% |
7.9 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.6% /
25.0% |
27.2 /
25.1 |
| 12 |
ATL |
31 – 17 W |
11.9 |
62.5% /
49.1% |
8.3% /
11.3% |
4.5% /
2.1% |
6.8 /
6.4 |
58.1% /
37.5% |
9.7% /
43.8% |
4.8 /
1.6 |
55 /
69 |
68.3% /
45.8% |
60.0% /
46.4% |
33.3% /
42.3% |
5.7 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
56.4% /
23.2% |
33.5 /
29.6 |
| 13 |
@DAL |
10 – 13 L |
-6.7 |
30.0% /
48.6% |
6.7% /
20.0% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
5.9 |
57.9% /
41.9% |
21.1% /
22.6% |
3.4 /
3.2 |
49 /
66 |
45.9% /
46.0% |
40.8% /
45.5% |
24.4% /
28.2% |
3.6 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
38.8% /
47.0% |
25.4 /
28.6 |
| 14 |
@TB |
28 – 14 W |
-3.3 |
59.4% /
38.1% |
3.1% /
9.5% |
3.2% /
2.6% |
6.2 /
4.1 |
43.3% /
43.5% |
30.0% /
26.1% |
3.3 /
4.6 |
62 /
65 |
53.2% /
39.2% |
51.6% /
40.0% |
30.9% /
36.2% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
48.4% /
35.4% |
34.8 /
29.5 |
| 15 |
@CAR |
12 – 9 W |
-0.6 |
40.5% /
35.3% |
5.4% /
11.8% |
2.9% /
3.3% |
5.2 /
4.4 |
68.8% /
60.9% |
15.6% /
8.7% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
69 /
57 |
58.5% /
46.2% |
53.6% /
45.6% |
34.7% /
38.1% |
5.0 /
4.3 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
46.4% /
40.4% |
31.0 /
24.4 |
| 16 |
PIT |
31 – 28 W |
1.8 |
54.8% /
52.8% |
4.8% /
5.7% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
6.9 |
57.9% /
44.4% |
10.5% /
33.3% |
3.0 /
3.6 |
61 /
71 |
58.3% /
53.7% |
55.7% /
50.7% |
45.7% /
42.4% |
6.1 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
2.8% |
31.1% /
25.4% |
28.5 /
24.2 |
| 17 |
CAR |
14 – 33 L |
-17.5 |
37.5% /
41.9% |
8.3% /
3.2% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
4.6 /
8.5 |
48.1% /
54.1% |
18.5% /
32.4% |
6.8 /
3.0 |
51 /
68 |
45.0% /
49.1% |
43.1% /
48.5% |
35.7% /
48.7% |
5.8 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.9% /
54.4% |
27.3 /
24.6 |
| 19 |
PHI |
20 – 14 W |
-4.0 |
47.5% /
45.2% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
2.6% /
6.5% |
7.1 /
6.5 |
48.4% /
37.5% |
22.6% /
12.5% |
4.4 /
3.1 |
71 /
47 |
46.2% /
46.2% |
47.9% /
42.6% |
61.4% /
31.6% |
5.9 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.7% /
34.0% |
19.8 /
26.5 |
| 20 |
LA |
23 – 26 L |
5.8 |
48.8% /
50.0% |
4.7% /
2.4% |
2.4% /
2.4% |
5.6 /
7.2 |
33.3% /
50.0% |
38.1% /
26.9% |
2.3 /
3.0 |
64 /
68 |
45.8% /
52.9% |
43.8% /
50.0% |
35.9% /
39.4% |
4.5 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.8% /
38.2% |
33.0 /
22.2 |
Houston Texans
@ 
New Orleans Saints