Game Analysis

NEW ENGLAND (+6.5/+7) over Houston

• The Patriots are rolling out 3rd overall pick Drake Maye at quarterback this week and the rookie should get bolstered by his ground game as the Texans rush defense is rated 27th by our numbers. New England’s offense has the 2nd-highest run-play rate adjusted for the situation.
• The Patriots are targeting tight ends on 29.3% of passes (2nd-most) but Maye will have to find a way to access the wide receivers in a way Jacoby Brissett could not as Houston’s defense is allowing -0.39 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (2nd).
• New England’s offensive line tinkering is getting better except for center Nick Leverett, who surrendered 11 pressures which was the most in a single game by any center over the past four seasons and 4 more than the other four Patriots starters combined.
• The Texans are completely relying on bail outs from CJ Stroud on 3rd and long. Houston’s offense is averaging -0.15 EPA/play on early downs (31st).
• Texans’ WR Nico Collins leading the NFL averaging 0.86 EPA/target but he won’t be suiting up this week and neither will starting RT Tytus Howard.
• Houston backup RT Blake Fisher surrendered an 11.9% pressure rate last week and will struggle across from edge defender Keion White, who has 19 pressures (15th).
• Texans’ RB Dare Ogunbowale is averaging 1.89 yards per route run (5th) and Stroud will look to catch New England’s defense in a blitz with the screen game. The Patriots have a 38.1% blitz rate (6th-highest) and are allowing a 57% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (29th).
• Our model makes Houston a 5.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 37.2.