Game Analysis
NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) vs Houston
Deshaun Watson rated as our 12th-most efficient quarterback in his rookie campaign before tearing his ACL in practice. Houston went 3-3 with Watson starting compared to 1-11 without him under center. Watson was pressured on a league-high 48% of his dropbacks, but the Texans added three new offensive linemen in the offseason to protect their young quarterback. Senio Kelemete comes over from New Orleans after allowing the fewest pressures of any guard with at least 300 pass blocking snaps in 2017. Zach Fulton didn’t surrender a sack all last season in Kansas City while playing center and will move to guard for 2018. Seantrel Henderson hasn’t seen consistent starting time since 2015 when he was one of three tackles to allow less than 20 pressures (min 300 pass blocking snaps). Watson was spectacular when kept clean last year, averaging 8.7 yards per pass play (2nd) and a 9.5% touchdown rate (1st) – more than double the league average of 4.4%.
Watson will line up across from Bill Belichick’s ‘bend but don’t break’ defense that’s finished top 8 in yards allowed per point in all but one of the last 15 seasons, including last year despite a lack of consistency. Early last season New England was on pace to be the worst defense in our database (going back to 2000), as the Patriots surrendered a 53% success rate prior to their bye week with opposing quarterbacks completing an alarming 18.5% of their passes for 15+ yards. Changes were made during the bye week and the Patriots allowed just a 42% success rate and 11.3% of opposing passes going beyond 15 yards. New England built on their second-half success by limiting big plays in their first playoff matchup against Tennessee, surrendering an 11.1% deep pass rate before reverting to the early season form in the AFC Championship and Super Bowl by allowing a 25.6% deep pass rate to Blake Bortles and Nick Foles. The safeties are crucial in the ‘bend but don’t break’ scheme and both Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung return, but their inconsistency is certainly something to watch.
Devin McCourty will welcome a familiar face to the secondary in twin brother Jason McCourty, who replaces Malcolm Brown after the controversial Super Bowl benching. Jason McCourty will likely be a downgrade as he allowed 1.32 yards per cover snap in 2017 (73rd among cornerbacks). I’m more optimistic about New England’s other key defensive signings, Adrian Clayborn and Danny Shelton. Clayborn racked-up 54 pressures last year (25th) and should provide a capable pass rush across from Trey Flowers, while Shelton finished 13th among defensive linemen with a 9.5% run stop rate and will improve a Patriots’ rush defense that ranked 31st in 2017 according to our metrics.
New England finished with the best offense in our end-of-season ratings, but they have the 5th-most targets lost in the league after parting ways with Brandin Cooks, Martellus Bennett, and Danny Amendola in the offseason. Still, Tom Brady has proven through the years he can get it done with anybody catching passes. Our model rates the future Hall of Fame quarterback as the most valuable player in the league going into his 19th season.
New England’s offense also loses running back Dion Lewis, whose 47% success rate in 2017 was the best among all running backs with at least 150 carries. However, the other Patriots rushers combined for a 46% success rate, suggesting most of Lewis’s stellar season was the product of excellent offensive line play. Four of the Pats’ five offensive line starters return so expect more of the same from the ground attack. New England opted not to re-sign left tackle Nate Solder and traded for Trent Brown instead, which should be an upgrade. Solder surrendered 51 quarterback pressures last season (5th-most), while Brown was one of just 3 players with at least 400 pass blocking snaps to allow just 1 sack.
Houston’s defense surrendered 7.1 yards per pass play in 2017 (30th), but they should improve drastically in limiting opposing quarterbacks this season. Former defensive player of the year J.J. Watt and fellow linemen Whitney Mercilus missed most of last year with injuries, but now the Texans will have to the two All-Pro pass rushers back in the lineup alongside Jadeveon Clowney, whose 64 pressures in 2017 ranked 14th. Houston enters this season with perhaps the most dynamic pass-rushing trio in the league. Houston’s pass defense will be bolstered further by the addition of another All-Pro in safety Tyrann Mathieu and former Jaguars’ nickelback Aaron Colvin, who allowed just 0.76 yards per cover snap from the slot last year (4th).
My ratings don’t show much value, but Houston applies to a 70-39-6 ATS week 1 contrary indicator. However, New England is 121-56-6 ATS with Tom Brady at quarterback in the regular season games when not favored by 9 points or more (8-1 last season), including 53-16-4 ATS at home. I like that week 1 angle but I’ve learned not to buck the Pats in this price range.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Texans
- Patriots
Pass
- Pass Plays 36.0 33.3
- Succ Pass Plays 41.5% 43.3%
- Sack Rate 9.7% 5.8%
- Int Rate 3.4% 2.5%
- Deep Pass Rate 23.4% 21.5%
- Big Pass Yards 48.1% 43.7%
- NYPP 5.7 7.0
Rush
- Rush Plays 28.2 28.9
- RB YPR 3.8 3.5
- Stuff Rate 22.5% 23.2%
- Succ Rush Plays 44.5% 40.1%
- Big Rush Yards 34.4% 47.3%
- Yards Per Rush 4.1 3.8
Game
- All Snaps 64.2 62.1
- Early Down Succ 44.5% 45.5%
- Succ Rate 42.7% 41.8%
- Big Yards Rate 43.3% 47.4%
- Yards Per Play 5.0 5.6
- Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.6%
- Time Per Play (sec) 28.2 28.9
- Run Ratio 44.1% 46.3%
- Starting Field Pos 25.3 29.7
- Game Control -2.5 2.5
- Points 21.1 27.3