Houston Texans @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Nov 27
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 261
Odds: Miami Dolphins -14, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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MIAMI (-14) vs Houston

Lean – Under (47)

· Miami has scored 105 points in the last three games and the Texans are allowing 0.07 EPA/play this season (26th), but I don’t think we should leave Houston’s defense for dead in this game.

· The Dolphins have had problems at right tackle opposite LT Terron Armstead. RT Brandon Shell will struggle against Texans edge defender Jerry Hughes, who ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Tyreek Hill is averaging 0.51 EPA/target (6th) and gaining 3.37 yards per route run in the slot (2nd), but Houston nickelback Desmond King is conceding 0.81 yards per slot cover snap (4th).

· Tua Tagovailoa will be watching when backup Houston CB Tavierre Thomas is lined up across from WR Jaylen Waddle, who leads all receivers averaging 0.78 EPA/target.

· The Texans are making a change at quarterback with Kyle Allen taking over for Davis Mills. Allen has a 48.1% success rate for his career which is notably above Mills’ 41.5% career success rate. Houston’s offense might get slightly better with Allen under center.

· Miami’s new edge rushing trio of Bradley Chubb, Melvin Ingram, and Jaelan Phillips combined for four sacks in the game before bye, but I do not think Allen will need to worry about them too much. Houston’s tackle tandem Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard are conceding only two pressures per game.

· Dameon Pierce will be limited on the ground by a Dolphins defense allowing just a 39% success rate (8th). Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer will not be afraid to stack the box and make Allen beat him in the passing game.

· Our model makes Miami a 12.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.8.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texans
  • Dolphins
HOU
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00



Rush


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00




Game

  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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