Game Analysis

JACKSONVILLE (-9) vs Houston

· There’s good news on both sides of the ball for Houston with LT Laremy Tunsil likely returning to action this week and S Jimmie Ward in line to make his debut. Tunsil conceded only 17 pressures last season (7th). Ward was solid as a true safety under Demeco Ryans in 2021 conceding just 5.7 yards per target and it’s no wonder the Texans decided to bring him over from San Francisco this offseason. Ward and Tunsil are worth 4.2% in win probability for the Texans by our metrics.

· Houston edge defender Will Anderson ranks 14th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will line up across from fellow rookie Anton Harrison, who has surrendered a league-high 3 sacks at right tackle.

· I expect Trevor Lawrence to benefit from positive 3rd down variance this week despite the pressure. Jacksonville’s offense is averaging an unsustainably low 1.6 yppl on 3rd down which is the main reason they’ve managed only 40 points in two games.

· The Texans rushing attack certainly isn’t chipping in to help rookie quarterback CJ Stroud. Houston’s ground game ranks 31st by our numbers as the running backs are gaining only 2.9 yards per carry on first down.

· Stroud will be challenged in this game by a Jaguars defense allowing just a 41% dropback success rate (8th).

· Texans’ boundary WR Nico Collins averaged an incredible 25.8 yards per target on in-breaking routes last week but he will be limited on Sunday versus Jacksonville’s cornerbacks Darious Williams and Tyson Campbell, who rank 6th and 21st respectively in PFF coverage grade.

· Our model makes Jacksonville a 10.0-point favorite with a predicted total of 44.3.