Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Best Bet – *Houston (+5 at -105) over JACKSONVILLE

Note: This line has moved out of Best Bet range since we released it to subscribers.

The Texans and Jaguars have played to nearly identical levels this season, but the Jags are being priced as the clearly better team. Our season-to-date ratings have Jacksonville’s offense ranked 22nd and Houston’s offense ranked 26th, while Jacksonville’s defense ranks 10th and Houston’s defense ranks 9th. Overall, the Texans have been only about a half point worse than the Jaguars in 2018 and our preseason expectations rated the Texans above the Jags. Our model favors Jacksonville by just 1.8 points with home field advantage minimized for divisional favorites. The matchups look fairly neutral but the Jaguars apply to a 40-96-1 ATS situation that plays against home favorites of 3 points or more that have allowed 27 points or more in consecutive games.

There’s no doubt the Jaguars’ defensive line will cause problems in the trenches for a Houston offensive line ranked 31st in pass blocking efficiency, but I expect Jacksonville’s offensive line to struggle as well. The Jaguars lost their top two left tackles and we may see Ereck Flowers, just cut by the Giants after allowing the most pressures in the NFL since 2015, line up across from Jadeveon Clowney. Furthermore, A.J. Cann, who ranks 7th-worst among guards in pass blocking efficiency, will have his hands full with J.J. Watt.

Houston’s star receiver DeAndre Hopkins is showing he’s matchup-proof averaging 11.3 yards per target the last two weeks against Byron Jones and Tre’Davious White, who both rank in the top 5 in yards allowed per cover snap. Hopkins will look to continue his success this week against Jalen Ramsey, whose 0.80 yards allowed per cover snap ranks 16th. During the offseason, the Jaguars lost Aaron Colvin to the Texans after ranking 4^th in yards surrendered per slot cover snap among nickelbacks and they signed D.J. Hayden to replace him. Hayden has been out with a toe injury and Jacksonville’s trouble defending slot receivers was exposed last week by the Cowboys’ Cole Beasley, who had 9 catches for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns. Houston’s Keke Coutee will look to take advantage inside after earning the second-most targets on the team since his week 3 debut while running 74% of his routes in the slot.

There’s no real advantage from the matchups in this game but the line value and situation favor Houston, whose 1-5 ATS mark actually sets the Texans up in a 384-254-16 ATS contrary situation that plays on teams with horrible spread records. Houston is better than they’ve shown and Jacksonville is still overrated because of how good their defense was last season. Defensive performance from year-to-year is more variable than offensive performance and I don’t expect the Jags’ to suddenly be as good as they were last season. I’ll take Houston in a 1-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Texans
Jaguars

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.8 35.7
Succ Pass Plays 49.0% 48.5%
Sack Rate 11.0% 7.3%
Int Rate 3.7% 3.4%
Deep Pass Rate 20.6% 17.7%
Big Pass Yards 38.3% 44.0%
NYPP 7.4 7.2

Rush

Rush Plays 28.5 27.8
RB YPR 3.2 3.2
Stuff Rate 27.2% 23.8%
Succ Rush Plays 40.2% 37.5%
Big Rush Yards 40.3% 27.4%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.4

Game

All Snaps 66.3 63.5
Early Down Succ 46.1% 41.8%
Succ Rate 45.2% 43.0%
Big Yards Rate 40.9% 38.8%
Yards Per Play 5.9 5.4
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 1.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 31.1
Run Ratio 42.7% 45.9%
Starting Field Pos 31.5 25.7
Game Control -2.3 2.3

Points 22.5 22.8

JAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.2 31.7
Succ Pass Plays 53.2% 46.5%
Sack Rate 6.6% 7.6%
Int Rate 4.0% 2.0%
Deep Pass Rate 16.3% 16.3%
Big Pass Yards 35.8% 31.3%
NYPP 7.0 6.2

Rush

Rush Plays 23.8 28.5
RB YPR 3.8 3.6
Stuff Rate 15.3% 25.4%
Succ Rush Plays 45.5% 35.9%
Big Rush Yards 38.5% 44.4%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.0

Game

All Snaps 61.0 60.2
Early Down Succ 47.7% 41.3%
Succ Rate 49.9% 40.7%
Big Yards Rate 37.4% 38.1%
Yards Per Play 6.0 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.4 30.9
Run Ratio 38.6% 46.8%
Starting Field Pos 27.0 28.7
Game Control -1.2 1.2

Points 18.2 21.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NE	20 – 27 L	-10.6	29.7% / 48.8%	8.1% / 4.9%	2.9% / 2.6%	4.3 / 6.5	45.7% / 38.7%	25.7% / 9.7%	4.8 / 3.9	72 / 72	43.1% / 47.4%	37.5% / 44.4%	37.4% / 38.0%	4.5 / 5.4	1.4% / 2.8%	48.6% / 43.1%	35.4 / 25.4
2	@TEN	17 – 20 L	-6.4	48.6% / 39.1%	11.4% / 4.3%	3.2% / 0.0%	8.3 / 8.0	42.3% / 35.3%	11.5% / 14.7%	5.7 / 2.9	61 / 57	46.0% / 35.0%	45.9% / 36.8%	53.1% / 27.9%	7.2 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	42.6% / 59.6%	26.6 / 23.2
3	NYG	22 – 27 L	-7.6	53.7% / 60.6%	7.3% / 12.1%	2.6% / 0.0%	9.0 / 8.0	42.1% / 32.1%	36.8% / 25.0%	3.1 / 4.1	60 / 61	50.0% / 47.8%	50.0% / 47.5%	53.4% / 41.3%	7.1 / 6.2	1.7% / 0.0%	31.7% / 45.9%	28.9 / 22.2
4	@IND	37 – 34 W	6.7	55.3% / 48.5%	14.9% / 6.1%	2.5% / 0.0%	7.4 / 6.6	42.9% / 41.2%	28.6% / 41.2%	3.4 / 2.4	82 / 83	49.2% / 44.6%	50.0% / 47.0%	37.1% / 26.6%	5.7 / 5.8	0.0% / 2.4%	42.7% / 20.5%	33.4 / 24.1
5	DAL	19 – 16 W	-0.3	79.4% / 65.0%	2.9% / 10.0%	3.0% / 11.1%	11.0 / 9.7	32.3% / 36.7%	32.3% / 30.0%	2.8 / 3.3	65 / 50	53.3% / 43.2%	56.9% / 48.0%	30.1% / 52.9%	7.1 / 5.9	1.5% / 0.0%	47.7% / 60.0%	27.9 / 30.8
6	BUF	20 – 13 W	4.3	27.3% / 29.0%	21.2% / 6.5%	7.7% / 6.9%	4.3 / 4.2	36.0% / 40.7%	28.0% / 22.2%	3.0 / 3.7	58 / 58	34.9% / 32.6%	31.0% / 34.5%	34.1% / 46.3%	3.7 / 3.9	1.7% / 1.7%	43.1% / 46.6%	36.5 / 28.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NYG	20 – 15 W	3.9	44.1% / 28.2%	2.9% / 5.1%	3.0% / 2.7%	4.9 / 5.4	36.7% / 34.8%	16.7% / 30.4%	4.6 / 5.0	64 / 62	46.8% / 31.9%	40.6% / 30.6%	38.8% / 38.0%	4.8 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.6%	46.9% / 37.1%	31.5 / 25.3
2	NE	31 – 20 W	13.1	57.8% / 48.6%	0.0% / 5.4%	2.2% / 0.0%	8.4 / 5.9	36.0% / 36.0%	16.0% / 12.0%	4.2 / 3.3	70 / 62	46.3% / 47.9%	50.0% / 43.5%	42.7% / 38.3%	6.9 / 4.9	1.4% / 1.6%	35.7% / 40.3%	25.7 / 30.1
3	TEN	6 – 9 L	-1.5	37.8% / 45.8%	8.1% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.9 / 3.5	52.6% / 42.9%	15.8% / 25.7%	4.6 / 4.3	56 / 59	46.3% / 47.7%	42.9% / 44.1%	10.3% / 34.3%	4.1 / 3.9	1.8% / 0.0%	33.9% / 59.3%	23.3 / 28.2
4	NYJ	31 – 12 W	10.3	57.5% / 32.4%	5.0% / 8.1%	2.6% / 0.0%	9.4 / 3.9	38.2% / 28.6%	20.6% / 35.7%	3.7 / 2.4	74 / 51	50.0% / 35.1%	48.6% / 31.4%	50.5% / 23.6%	6.8 / 3.5	2.7% / 0.0%	45.9% / 27.5%	26.8 / 29.8
5	@KC	14 – 30 L	-14.4	73.7% / 87.0%	13.2% / 4.3%	12.1% / 9.1%	10.6 / 13.0	70.6% / 28.1%	5.9% / 25.0%	5.9 / 4.0	55 / 55	48.4% / 45.5%	72.7% / 52.7%	49.8% / 49.3%	9.1 / 7.7	1.8% / 0.0%	30.9% / 58.2%	28.3 / 21.3
6	@DAL	7 – 40 L	-18.5	48.3% / 36.7%	10.3% / 10.0%	3.8% / 0.0%	4.8 / 5.7	38.9% / 45.2%	16.7% / 23.8%	3.6 / 4.9	47 / 72	48.6% / 39.6%	44.7% / 41.7%	32.4% / 45.0%	4.3 / 5.3	2.1% / 0.0%	38.3% / 58.3%	26.4 / 37.8

Houston Texans @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Oct 21

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis