Game Analysis

Lean – Houston (-2.5 -120) over INDIANAPOLIS

• The market has the Colts rated a half point worse than average to start this season or 2 points better than their market power rating ended last year. I will make the case that Indianapolis is not much better at all than they finished 2023.
• The Colts did not add a starting player on either side of the ball in free agency.
• It’s unlikely the current version of Anthony Richardson is notably better than Gardner Minshew. They had the exact same 43.4% success rate last year and Minshew had a better EPA+CPOE composite score.
• Richardson was known as a raw prospect coming out and the Colts offense was rated 28th in the market going into last year. Now, 98 dropbacks later and everyone’s ready to say this is a top half of the league offense.
• Richardson still has less than 500 total passing attempts in college and pro combined. I think it’s reasonable to wait one more year for an Indianapolis breakout.
• Richardson won’t have WR Josh Downs for this game due to an ankle sprain. Downs led the team with a 52% success rate in 2023. However, Downs’s absence is canceled out by the suspension of Houston DE Denico Autry. Autry finished last season with 53 pressures in Tennessee.
• The Colts defense finished 28th in scoring last year and is running back almost the exact same unit with DC Gus Bradley.
• Indianapolis drafted edge rusher Laiatu Latu in the first round but he’s unlikely to give them more as a rookie than they got last year from edge defender Samson Ebukam, who tore his Achilles in camp. Remember, Ebukam led the team with 9.5 sacks last season.
• CJ Stroud is coming off the 6th best rookie season by EPA/play of the last 15 years and his supporting cast should be better in 2024.
• The backups accounted for 45% of Houston’s offensive line snaps last season and managed to finish 12th in pass blocking efficiency, a real feather in the cap for offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. The pass blocking should be better with a more consistent group in 2024.
• The Texans traded for WR Stefon Diggs, who has made 4-straight Pro Bowls. In addition to Diggs, Houston’s wide receivers will likely benefit from the same health boost as the offensive line as starters Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Robert Woods, and Noah Brown combined to miss 23 games including the playoffs.
• The big addition for Houston’s defense is Danielle Hunter, who was one of 9 edge defenders with 80 pressures last season. Hunter will line up opposite of edge defender Will Anderson, who ranked 14th in pass rushing efficiency as a rookie.
• Our model favors the Texans by 3.2 points, with a predicted total of 47.7 points.