Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – 6-point Teaser (-115) – Cleveland (+8.5) with Houston (+8.5), both at +7.5 or more

Houston (+2.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

· The Texans can lock up the top overall pick with a loss here, but I do not expect an old school head coach like Lovie Smith to roll over and die. The Colts look like the team actually determined to lose this game starting Sam Ehlinger above Matt Ryan and Nick Foles.

· Ehlinger has been one of the worst quarterbacks we’ve seen in awhile averaging just 3.4 yppp and a 37% success rate.

· Indianapolis was without its top four usual cornerbacks as the week of practice began on Wednesday and it looks like they aren’t going to force banged-up guys back onto the field.

· Houston’s secondary has really come on after CB Derek Stingley’s season ending hamstring injury. The Texans rank 5th in EPA/dropback allowed since week 11.

· Stringley ranked 68th out of 77 qualifying cornerbacks in PFF coverage grade during the rookie’s nine games. Stingley’s hamstring opened the door to get the best cornerbacks on the field for Houston’s defense.

· CB Desmond King ranks 20th in coverage grade by PFF and CB Steven Nelson ranks 23rd. Texans nickelback Tavierre Thomas is conceding just 0.45 yards per cover snap in the slot.

· Houston’s defense will also have a decided advantage up front. Edge defender Jerry Hughes ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency and he will go against Colts RT Bernhard Raiman, who has allowed 7 sacks ranking 7th-most among tackles.

· Ryan Kelly has surrendered 24 pressures, 4th-most among centers. Kelly will not hold up versus Texans interior defender Maliek Collins, who ranks 12th in pass rushing efficiency.

· The Texans have ranked 21st in EPA/dropback since week 14 when they rolled out the two-pronged quarterback approach with Jeff Driskel and Davis Mills sharing the snaps.

· Houston’s interior offensive line is allowing 7.3 pressures per game and will struggle to contain DT DeForest Buckner, who ranks 10th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Indianapolis edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue has 10.0 sacks (14th) but he will be shut down by LT Laremy Tunsil, who ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.

· Our model favors the Texans by 3.1 points, with a predicted total of 37.9 points, and I’ve decided that the best way to use Houston is in a 2-team Teaser to get through key numbers 3 and 7.

1-Star Best Bet 6-point Teaser (-115) – Houston (+8.5) with Cleveland (+8.5) both at +7.5 or more.