Houston Texans @

Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Dec 20
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 341
Odds: Indianapolis Colts -7, Total: 51.5

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *Under (52) – INDIANAPOLIS (-1) over Houston

Lean – Indianapolis (-7)

The books opened this total too high because the Colts’ game last Sunday had 71 combined points and there was support in the betting market for the over in last week’s Texans versus Bears game (I think that had more to do with Chicago). We just saw these teams square off two weeks ago and the total was 50.5. The change in venue doesn’t make much of a difference given both teams play in a dome and we would expect lower points in the second occurrence than the first (even without Houston safety Justin Reid on the field).

Colts’ DT DeForest Buckner is averaging 3.5 pressures per game and he should improve that mark when lined up across from RG Zach Fulton, who ranks 57th out of 57 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency and was exploited by Buckner in the first meeting for 2 sacks. More than half of Houston’s yardage gained by wide receivers this season will not be available for Deshaun Watson again on Sunday and the Texans’ lone NFL caliber receiver, Brandin Cooks, will be limited by Xavier Rhodes, who is conceding 0.86 yards per cover snap (16th).

The Texans are allowing 6.9 yards per target to opposing RBs so I would expect Philip Rivers to continue looking at Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Taylor out of the backfield. Houston’s secondary will once again be without CB Bradley Roby (suspension) and now safety Justin Reid will miss the remainder of the season due to a torn UCL in his thumb. Roby allowed only 0.72 yards per cover snap while the rest of the Texans CBs are surrendering 1.46 yards per cover snap. The two defensive backs are worth 1.5 points combined according to our metrics but the model still likes the under.

Our model favors the Colts by 9.4 points, with a predicted total of 48.7 points, and the Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 51.5 points or higher.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texans
  • Colts
HOU
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.3 36.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 53.2% 52.1%
  • Sack Rate 8.5% 6.6%
  • Int Rate 1.4% 0.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.4% 18.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.2% 34.8%
  • NYPP 7.5 7.0



Rush


  • Rush Plays 22.2 30.5
  • RB YPR 3.3 5.1
  • Stuff Rate 21.5% 18.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 43.4% 53.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 31.3% 46.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 5.0




Game

  • All Snaps 58.5 67.2
  • Early Down Succ 52.7% 55.1%
  • Succ Rate 50.0% 52.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.7% 41.3%
  • Yards Per Play 6.1 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 29.7
  • Run Ratio 37.9% 45.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.3 27.4
  • Game Control -3.6 3.6
 
  • Points 22.7 27.6
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