Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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INDIANAPOLIS (-1) vs Houston

The Texans are gaining 7.0 yards per pass play (8th) and have room for improvement. Star WR DeAndre Hopkins ranks only 27th with only 1.72 yards per route run after finishing in the top 5 his first two seasons with Deshaun Watson. Kenny Stills is averaging 4.37 yards per route run in the slot and he should return to the lineup this week giving Watson another option. Houston traded for LT Laremy Tunsil before the season and the left tackle has paid dividends, ranking 10th in pass blocking efficiency. However, the Texans will be without right tackle Tytus Howard, who ranks 2nd in pass block win rate, and edge rusher Justin Houston could cause problems for Watson. Houston’s ground game ranks 6th and they should be able to move the ball easily versus an Indianapolis rush defense rated 31st.

Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle both rank outside the top 20 in yards per route run despite the Colts targeting tight ends 5th-most in the league and I do not expect either to get going on Sunday. The Texans are 1 of 3 teams allowing less than 6 yards per target to opposing tight ends led by linebacker Benardrick McKinney, who is conceding 0.61 yards per cover snap (4th). TY Hilton is gaining over 2 yards per route run and will look to take advantage of a hobbled Houston secondary with Bradley Roby out and Johnathan Joseph questionable. Anthony Castonzo and Braden Smith both rank in the top 20 in pass blocking efficiency among tackles and the pair should limit JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus off the edge. Quenton Nelson ranks 4th among guards with a 96% pass block win rate and he should neutralize DJ Reader, who ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders. The Colts ground game ranks 3rd and they have a favorable matchup against Houston’s 29th-rated rush defense.

Both rush offenses have big advantages and I expect a run-heavy approach from each team. Frank Reich is one of the best coaches in the league and should have a particularly solid game plan with an extra week to prepare. Our model favors the Texans by 2.2 points, with a predicted total of 47.3 points, but the Colts apply to a 76-19-1 ATS situation. I’ll pass.

Team Stats
Game Log

Texans
Colts

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.7 42.2
Succ Pass Plays 51.0% 46.4%
Sack Rate 8.2% 6.3%
Int Rate 1.8% 1.2%
Deep Pass Rate 21.1% 18.0%
Big Pass Yards 40.5% 32.8%
NYPP 7.1 6.3

Rush

Rush Plays 28.2 19.8
RB YPR 4.8 4.2
Stuff Rate 19.3% 19.8%
Succ Rush Plays 54.0% 40.9%
Big Rush Yards 53.2% 51.5%
Yards Per Rush 5.0 4.5

Game

All Snaps 64.8 62.0
Early Down Succ 52.3% 43.8%
Succ Rate 52.1% 44.4%
Big Yards Rate 46.7% 37.8%
Yards Per Play 6.1 5.8
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 1.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 27.6
Run Ratio 42.8% 31.7%
Starting Field Pos 26.2 27.6
Game Control 0.7 -0.7

Points 27.0 22.3

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NO	28 – 30 L	2.7	38.9% / 59.1%	16.7% / 2.3%	3.3% / 2.3%	6.5 / 8.2	60.9% / 52.4%	30.4% / 9.5%	7.8 / 7.0	59 / 65	44.4% / 57.7%	47.5% / 56.9%	68.4% / 45.5%	7.0 / 7.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.0% / 32.3%	17.9 / 26.4
2	JAC	13 – 12 W	3.3	36.4% / 40.5%	12.1% / 10.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.2 / 4.8	56.7% / 42.9%	16.7% / 14.3%	4.2 / 4.9	63 / 58	46.8% / 44.2%	46.0% / 41.4%	35.0% / 40.6%	4.2 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.7%	47.6% / 36.2%	26.8 / 26.0
3	@LAC	27 – 20 W	-2.4	58.3% / 41.2%	5.6% / 9.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 5.7	26.3% / 38.9%	26.3% / 16.7%	2.1 / 4.1	55 / 69	45.5% / 41.2%	47.3% / 40.6%	57.7% / 42.6%	6.8 / 5.3	1.8% / 1.4%	34.5% / 26.1%	24.2 / 27.7
4	CAR	10 – 16 L	-2.3	40.0% / 51.4%	15.0% / 8.1%	2.9% / 0.0%	3.2 / 5.5	68.2% / 35.7%	18.2% / 25.0%	6.2 / 3.4	62 / 65	54.0% / 43.1%	50.0% / 44.6%	36.0% / 28.3%	4.3 / 4.6	1.6% / 4.6%	35.5% / 43.1%	29.6 / 29.9
5	ATL	53 – 32 W	5.3	72.7% / 41.7%	0.0% / 4.2%	0.0% / 2.2%	12.9 / 6.6	55.9% / 30.0%	11.8% / 35.0%	4.9 / 2.9	67 / 68	61.1% / 32.0%	64.2% / 38.2%	58.1% / 27.6%	8.8 / 5.5	1.5% / 0.0%	50.7% / 29.4%	26.5 / 28.7
6	@KC	31 – 24 W	-2.6	59.5% / 44.4%	0.0% / 2.8%	4.8% / 2.9%	6.7 / 7.1	56.1% / 45.5%	12.2% / 18.2%	4.7 / 4.8	83 / 47	62.1% / 44.7%	57.8% / 44.7%	25.2% / 42.1%	5.7 / 6.6	1.2% / 2.1%	49.4% / 23.4%	32.4 / 27.2

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LAC	24 – 30 L	-6.2	44.8% / 52.6%	6.9% / 10.5%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.0 / 8.2	66.7% / 57.1%	15.2% / 23.8%	6.2 / 6.0	62 / 59	56.3% / 52.1%	56.5% / 54.2%	38.0% / 57.9%	6.1 / 7.4	0.0% / 1.7%	53.2% / 35.6%	26.4 / 30.0
2	@TEN	19 – 17 W	1.3	45.2% / 37.5%	9.7% / 12.5%	3.6% / 0.0%	3.9 / 3.7	47.1% / 50.0%	29.4% / 20.8%	4.9 / 5.1	65 / 56	45.8% / 52.3%	46.2% / 42.9%	27.8% / 38.4%	4.4 / 4.3	1.5% / 0.0%	52.3% / 42.9%	26.5 / 31.5
3	ATL	27 – 24 W	8.1	60.5% / 61.8%	2.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.9%	7.9 / 8.9	41.7% / 50.0%	33.3% / 25.0%	3.3 / 4.7	62 / 54	53.8% / 53.5%	53.2% / 57.4%	34.6% / 35.0%	6.1 / 7.4	0.0% / 0.0%	38.7% / 37.0%	20.9 / 24.0
4	OAK	24 – 31 L	-10.8	34.8% / 43.8%	0.0% / 3.1%	2.2% / 0.0%	5.8 / 5.9	47.8% / 46.9%	34.8% / 21.9%	3.5 / 5.9	69 / 64	36.7% / 46.0%	39.1% / 45.3%	45.7% / 38.5%	5.0 / 5.9	1.4% / 1.6%	33.3% / 50.0%	28.7 / 23.5
5	@KC	19 – 13 W	1.9	48.3% / 39.5%	0.0% / 9.3%	3.4% / 0.0%	5.2 / 6.7	68.9% / 42.9%	11.1% / 35.7%	4.0 / 2.6	74 / 57	67.9% / 42.9%	60.8% / 40.4%	22.4% / 53.1%	4.5 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.8%	60.8% / 24.6%	32.0 / 25.1

Houston Texans @

Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Oct 20

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis