Game Analysis
INDIANAPOLIS (-1) vs Houston
The Texans are gaining 7.0 yards per pass play (8th) and have room for improvement. Star WR DeAndre Hopkins ranks only 27th with only 1.72 yards per route run after finishing in the top 5 his first two seasons with Deshaun Watson. Kenny Stills is averaging 4.37 yards per route run in the slot and he should return to the lineup this week giving Watson another option. Houston traded for LT Laremy Tunsil before the season and the left tackle has paid dividends, ranking 10th in pass blocking efficiency. However, the Texans will be without right tackle Tytus Howard, who ranks 2nd in pass block win rate, and edge rusher Justin Houston could cause problems for Watson. Houston’s ground game ranks 6th and they should be able to move the ball easily versus an Indianapolis rush defense rated 31st.
Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle both rank outside the top 20 in yards per route run despite the Colts targeting tight ends 5th-most in the league and I do not expect either to get going on Sunday. The Texans are 1 of 3 teams allowing less than 6 yards per target to opposing tight ends led by linebacker Benardrick McKinney, who is conceding 0.61 yards per cover snap (4th). TY Hilton is gaining over 2 yards per route run and will look to take advantage of a hobbled Houston secondary with Bradley Roby out and Johnathan Joseph questionable. Anthony Castonzo and Braden Smith both rank in the top 20 in pass blocking efficiency among tackles and the pair should limit JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus off the edge. Quenton Nelson ranks 4th among guards with a 96% pass block win rate and he should neutralize DJ Reader, who ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders. The Colts ground game ranks 3rd and they have a favorable matchup against Houston’s 29th-rated rush defense.
Both rush offenses have big advantages and I expect a run-heavy approach from each team. Frank Reich is one of the best coaches in the league and should have a particularly solid game plan with an extra week to prepare. Our model favors the Texans by 2.2 points, with a predicted total of 47.3 points, but the Colts apply to a 76-19-1 ATS situation. I’ll pass.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.7
42.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.0%
46.4%
-
Sack Rate
8.2%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.1%
18.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.5%
32.8%
-
NYPP
7.1
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.2
19.8
-
RB YPR
4.8
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
19.3%
19.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
54.0%
40.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
53.2%
51.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.0
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
64.8
62.0
-
Early Down Succ
52.3%
43.8%
-
Succ Rate
52.1%
44.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.7%
37.8%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.1
27.6
-
Run Ratio
42.8%
31.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.2
27.6
-
Game Control
0.7
-0.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.6
35.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.7%
47.0%
-
Sack Rate
3.8%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.2%
17.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
20.8%
33.4%
-
NYPP
5.7
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.8
22.2
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
24.8%
25.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
54.4%
49.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.5%
58.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
66.4
58.0
-
Early Down Succ
52.1%
49.3%
-
Succ Rate
51.2%
48.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
33.7%
44.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
30.2
-
Run Ratio
47.7%
38.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.9
26.8
-
Game Control
-1.1
1.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NO |
28 – 30 L |
2.7 |
38.9% / 59.1% |
16.7% / 2.3% |
3.3% / 2.3% |
6.5 / 8.2 |
60.9% / 52.4% |
30.4% / 9.5% |
7.8 / 7.0 |
59 / 65 |
44.4% / 57.7% |
47.5% / 56.9% |
68.4% / 45.5% |
7.0 / 7.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.0% / 32.3% |
17.9 / 26.4 |
2 |
JAC |
13 – 12 W |
3.3 |
36.4% / 40.5% |
12.1% / 10.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 4.8 |
56.7% / 42.9% |
16.7% / 14.3% |
4.2 / 4.9 |
63 / 58 |
46.8% / 44.2% |
46.0% / 41.4% |
35.0% / 40.6% |
4.2 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
47.6% / 36.2% |
26.8 / 26.0 |
3 |
@LAC |
27 – 20 W |
-2.4 |
58.3% / 41.2% |
5.6% / 9.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.4 / 5.7 |
26.3% / 38.9% |
26.3% / 16.7% |
2.1 / 4.1 |
55 / 69 |
45.5% / 41.2% |
47.3% / 40.6% |
57.7% / 42.6% |
6.8 / 5.3 |
1.8% / 1.4% |
34.5% / 26.1% |
24.2 / 27.7 |
4 |
CAR |
10 – 16 L |
-2.3 |
40.0% / 51.4% |
15.0% / 8.1% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
3.2 / 5.5 |
68.2% / 35.7% |
18.2% / 25.0% |
6.2 / 3.4 |
62 / 65 |
54.0% / 43.1% |
50.0% / 44.6% |
36.0% / 28.3% |
4.3 / 4.6 |
1.6% / 4.6% |
35.5% / 43.1% |
29.6 / 29.9 |
5 |
ATL |
53 – 32 W |
5.3 |
72.7% / 41.7% |
0.0% / 4.2% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
12.9 / 6.6 |
55.9% / 30.0% |
11.8% / 35.0% |
4.9 / 2.9 |
67 / 68 |
61.1% / 32.0% |
64.2% / 38.2% |
58.1% / 27.6% |
8.8 / 5.5 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
50.7% / 29.4% |
26.5 / 28.7 |
6 |
@KC |
31 – 24 W |
-2.6 |
59.5% / 44.4% |
0.0% / 2.8% |
4.8% / 2.9% |
6.7 / 7.1 |
56.1% / 45.5% |
12.2% / 18.2% |
4.7 / 4.8 |
83 / 47 |
62.1% / 44.7% |
57.8% / 44.7% |
25.2% / 42.1% |
5.7 / 6.6 |
1.2% / 2.1% |
49.4% / 23.4% |
32.4 / 27.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@LAC |
24 – 30 L |
-6.2 |
44.8% / 52.6% |
6.9% / 10.5% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
6.0 / 8.2 |
66.7% / 57.1% |
15.2% / 23.8% |
6.2 / 6.0 |
62 / 59 |
56.3% / 52.1% |
56.5% / 54.2% |
38.0% / 57.9% |
6.1 / 7.4 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
53.2% / 35.6% |
26.4 / 30.0 |
2 |
@TEN |
19 – 17 W |
1.3 |
45.2% / 37.5% |
9.7% / 12.5% |
3.6% / 0.0% |
3.9 / 3.7 |
47.1% / 50.0% |
29.4% / 20.8% |
4.9 / 5.1 |
65 / 56 |
45.8% / 52.3% |
46.2% / 42.9% |
27.8% / 38.4% |
4.4 / 4.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
52.3% / 42.9% |
26.5 / 31.5 |
3 |
ATL |
27 – 24 W |
8.1 |
60.5% / 61.8% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
7.9 / 8.9 |
41.7% / 50.0% |
33.3% / 25.0% |
3.3 / 4.7 |
62 / 54 |
53.8% / 53.5% |
53.2% / 57.4% |
34.6% / 35.0% |
6.1 / 7.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 37.0% |
20.9 / 24.0 |
4 |
OAK |
24 – 31 L |
-10.8 |
34.8% / 43.8% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 5.9 |
47.8% / 46.9% |
34.8% / 21.9% |
3.5 / 5.9 |
69 / 64 |
36.7% / 46.0% |
39.1% / 45.3% |
45.7% / 38.5% |
5.0 / 5.9 |
1.4% / 1.6% |
33.3% / 50.0% |
28.7 / 23.5 |
5 |
@KC |
19 – 13 W |
1.9 |
48.3% / 39.5% |
0.0% / 9.3% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 6.7 |
68.9% / 42.9% |
11.1% / 35.7% |
4.0 / 2.6 |
74 / 57 |
67.9% / 42.9% |
60.8% / 40.4% |
22.4% / 53.1% |
4.5 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
60.8% / 24.6% |
32.0 / 25.1 |