Game Analysis
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Strong Opinion – Houston (+3 -120) over GREEN BAY
- Houston’s defense has the 5th-highest Cover 1 rate and they will limit a Green Bay offense with a yppp versus Cover 1 a league-low 61% compared to other coverages.
- Texans’ nickelback Jalen Pitre is conceding only 0.85 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th) and he will contain WR Jayden Reed, who is averaging 0.64 EPA/target (2nd).
- Packers’ TE Tucker Kraft 0.34 EPA/target (6th) but he will be shut down as Houston’s defense is allowing a league-low 29% success rate to opposing tight ends.
- Jordan Love should have protection on the edge as RT Zach Tom ranks 6th in pass-blocking efficiency and he will line up across from edge defender Danielle Hunter, who has 24 pressures (10th). However, Love could see pressure up the middle as Houston’s defense will be getting Denico Autry off of suspension. Autry had 11.5 sacks last year in Tennessee (12th).
- The Packers under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley are surrendering 14% more yppp against motion than when opposing offenses do not motion (29th) and they will struggle this week as the Texans offense has a 69% motion rate (5th-highest).
- Our model makes Green Bay a 3.2-point favorite, with a predicted total of 46.0 points, and the reason for the play is a 234-115-10 ATS situation that favors the Texans.
Houston is a Strong Opinion at +2.5 or more.