Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (45) – DENVER (-10) vs Houston

· The Broncos averaged 6.8 yppl last week and now they face a worse defense at home. I think we could see a four-touchdown outing for Russell Wilson’s offense on Sunday after they fumbled on the goal line twice in Seattle.

· Wilson did a nice job getting Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton involved downfield while also feeding his running backs out of the backfield against the Seahawks. Wilson had 7 deep pass attempts last week (2nd) and 15 targets to his RBs.

· The Texans surrendered 64 receiving yards to opposing RBs last week (6th-most).

· Houston rookie CB Derek Stingley and CB Desmond King surrendered 172 receiving yards, the most among any cornerback tandem in week 1. Stingley and King will not be able to guard Jeudy and Sutton in the vertical passing game. 

· Denver safety Justin Simmons had 7 forced incompletions last season (4th) but he is now out for four games. Our metrics have Simmons worth a full point.

· Davis Mills used a quick tempo last Sunday and there’s potential for the Texans to get even faster on offense. Houston averaged a league-low 2.5 yards per first down run last week and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton could learn from the success the Seahawks had versus the Broncos with the 8th-highest early down pass rate over expectation.

· Denver’s offense will likely have a faster pace this week. Russell Wilson was fighting crowd noise last Monday night in Seattle and tied for the league-lead in Delay of Game penalties. I think they will put an emphasis on snapping the ball quicker now at home.

· Altitude is difficult for opponents early in the year as conditioning adjusts to the speed of the regular season. The Broncos are 51-12-2 at home in games during weeks 1-2 since the merger (31-14-3 ATS in those games since 1980). Tired lungs might also affect defenses more than offenses with the over now 14-10-1 (58%) during the first two weeks in Denver since 2000.

· Our model has the Broncos by 6.2 with a predicted total of 50.4.

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 46 points or less.