Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – DALLAS (+7 -105) over Houston

• Texans’ WR Nico Collins will be back on the field on Monday night but it’s unlikely to vault Houston’s offense into the elite tier. The Texans had a 37% early down success rate in the first 5 weeks of the season with Collins (31st).
• CJ Stroud has faced a league-high 50 plays of third-and-10+, providing a favorable matchup for the Cowboys pass rush, which is the strength of this Dallas defense. Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons returned to the lineup last week and got 2.0 sacks. Dallas had a 54% pressure rate against the Eagles.
• The weakness of the Dallas defense is stopping the run, but the Texans will not be able to take advantage as Houston’s offense only has a 33% rush success rate (31st). The Texans had a 56% run-play rate on first down last Sunday night and managed just a 6% success rate on those rushes.
• Houston edge defender Will Anderson ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency but he will be sidelined again this week. Anderson is worth 0.9 points according to our metrics.
• Cowboys RT Terence Steele has surrendered 29 pressures (2nd-most) and he will struggle versus edge defender Danielle Hunter, who has 5.5 sacks (18th).
• Cooper Rush will get the ball out quickly to WR CeeDee Lamb and TE Jake Ferguson, who has lined up in the slot on 59% of his passing snaps. Texans nickelback Jalen Pitre is surrendering 1.39 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th-worst).
• Our model makes Houston a 4.5-point favorite, with a predicted total of 39.3 points, and Dallas applies to a 90-41-2 ATS situation that plays on teams coming off a loss of 24 points or more.

Dallas is a Strong Opinion at +7 at -120 odds or better.