Houston Texans @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Sep 25
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 477
Odds: Chicago Bears -3, Total: 40

Game Analysis

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3-Star Best Bet – Houston (+3) over CHICAGO

· The Bears have done nothing this season to justify being a 3-point favorite over anyone. Chicago beat San Francisco while averaging only 3.6 yards per play with the field looking like a puddle in week 1. The Bears lost by 17 last Sunday night and Justin Fields only had 11 pass attempts.

· Chicago offensive coordinator Luke Getsy clearly does not trust his passing attack and the Texans can take away running back David Montgomery. Houston’s rush defense is rated above average according to our numbers.

· The Texans pass defense was atrocious last season, allowing 7.1 yppp (30th), but one spot Lovie Smith does succeed is limiting RBs receiving out of the backfield. Houston’s defense conceded an above-average 5.4 yards per target to running backs in 2021. Chicago’s RBs have a 28.6% target share (3rd-most), which is favorable matchup for the Texans.

· I believe Davis Mills will improve his 4.6 yppp because Mills averaged 5.8 yppp as a rookie and there’s no reason to expect him to be any worse.

· Chicago linebacker Roquan Smith (hip) is banged-up and might not be available on Sunday. Smith had a 9.5% run stop rate last season (6th) and 25 stops in pass coverage which was 2nd-most among LBs. Smith is worth 0.6 points by our metrics.

· We had these two teams dead even coming into the season, both in contention for worst team in the NFL. Our metrics suggest the Bears have been worse than the Texans in the first two games and home field advantage is only worth 1.4 points.

· Our model has the Texans by 1.4 points, with a predicted total of 42.5 points, and Chicago applies to an early season 45-109-4 ATS situation while Houston applies to a 77-30 ATS bounce-back situation. Houston is a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 at -110 odds, 2-Stars at +3 up to -120 odds, and 1-Star down to +2.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Texans
  • Bears
HOU
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00



Rush


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00




Game

  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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