Game Analysis

BALTIMORE (-10) vs Houston

· I think Lamar Jackson is going to make a leap under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken with his threes (deep balls) and layups (screens) approach. Baltimore’s offense finally has a legitimate receiving corps after signing Odell Beckham, drafting WR Zay Flowers in the first round, and getting back healthy WR Rashod Bateman, who ranked in the top 5 in yards per route run among WRs through the first month of last season before injuries derailed him the rest of the way.

· However, Houston’s secondary is one of the deepest in the NFL after an active offseason under new head coach Demeco Ryans. Solid safety Jimmie Ward follows Ryans from SF to Houston, CB Derek Stingley should make a year 1 to year 2 leap, and opponents had just a 78 QB Rating when targeting Steven Nelson last season (14th). New addition CB Shaquill Griffin was hurt for much of last season, but he finished 23rd in PFF coverage grade in 2021 and is an overqualified rotation guy. And, Desmond King and Tavierre Thomas are both solid defending receivers out of the slot. This depth might be called upon in week 1 with starting safety Ward’s status in doubt.

· At linebacker the Texans brought in an important piece in Denzel Perryman. Las Vegas went 0-5 without Perryman last season while surrendering 29.2 ppg in those games, while going 6-6 in the games he started.

· The Ravens offensive line finished 7th in pass-blocking efficiency last season despite All-Pro caliber LT Ronnie Stanley missing a month and a half. However, Baltimore lost guard Ben Powers and he’s worth about a half point over replacement G John Simpson.

· Baltimore’s trade for linebacker Roquan Smith in the middle of the season was a game-changer. The Ravens allowed a 45% success rate without Smith (27th) and they conceded just a 39% success rate with Smith (5th). Baltimore’s defense ranked 3rd in EPA/rush allowed, excluding fumbles, from week 9 on after the trade.

· However, the Ravens lost Calais Campbell up front plus Chuck Clark and Marcus Peters in the secondary. Baltimore signed CB Rock Ya-Sin, who might not be a major downgrade from Peters in MacDonald’s system after the Ravens ranked below average in man coverage rate last season. They also brought in Ronald Darby for cornerback depth because Pro Bowl CB Marlon Humphrey will miss the earlier part of the season. Humphrey is worth 1.1 points based on our metrics.

· Shanahan offenses succeed when the team has great skill position talent like the 49ers or the Dolphins with Mike McDaniel. We saw Mike LaFleur fail as NYJ’s offensive coordinator because they didn’t have the talent. This looks like it’ll be the same problem for Bobby Slowik as Houston’s new offensive coordinator. The Texans have an entire roster of replacement-level receivers for rookie quarterback CJ Stroud.

· Stroud will also be running for his life because his interior offensive linemen are dropping like flies. The Texans have four interior linemen on IR to start the season and to make matters worse starting RT Tytus Howard (hand) is now on the IR as well.

TE Mark Andrews is out for Baltimore, which hurts the Ravens’ offense a bit.

· Our model favors Baltimore by 10.0 points with a predicted total of 41.8 points.