Game Analysis
Lean – BALTIMORE (-7) vs Houston
Joe Flacco is having perhaps the worst season of his career but I believe part of his struggles can be attributed to a brutal schedule. The Texans will be just the third defense the Ravens have faced all season ranked outside of the top 20 in yards per play allowed. Unsurprisingly Baltimore’s two highest scoring outputs of the year came against Oakland and Miami, the two defenses they faced that are not ranked in the top 20 in yppl allowed, and I expect the Ravens offense to be successful again against a Houston defense surrendering 5.7 yppl (26th).
Tom Savage is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 6.8 yards per pass play, but he’s sucked in general (4.6 yppp this season) and I do not expect a repeat of last week’s success against a Baltimore defense ranked 3rd against the pass in my metrics. Furthermore, Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith, allowing just 0.53 yards per cover snap (2nd), should be able to neutralize Houston’s biggest offensive threat, DeAndre Hopkins. I expect Baltimore’s defense to pick up where they left off last week shutting out the Packers and continue their dominance on Monday night. The Ravens also apply to a 52-12-2 ATS scheduling situation as they return home off two road games and I’ll lean with Baltimore at -7 or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.9
35.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.9%
45.0%
-
Sack Rate
8.6%
6.8%
-
Int Rate
3.4%
3.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
24.3%
21.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.6%
45.3%
-
NYPP
6.3
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.4
26.0
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
19.8%
25.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.6%
40.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.6%
46.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
66.3
61.3
-
Early Down Succ
47.0%
47.1%
-
Succ Rate
44.9%
42.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.2%
47.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.7
28.6
-
Run Ratio
45.8%
42.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.4
29.3
-
Game Control
0.3
-0.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.6
34.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
37.9%
39.6%
-
Sack Rate
5.7%
8.4%
-
Int Rate
3.3%
4.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.4%
20.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
25.1%
37.6%
-
NYPP
4.9
5.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.6
30.3
-
RB YPR
4.0
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
24.2%
25.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.5%
39.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.1%
42.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
65.2
64.9
-
Early Down Succ
44.0%
42.6%
-
Succ Rate
40.9%
39.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.2%
39.9%
-
Yards Per Play
4.3
4.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.1
28.3
-
Run Ratio
45.9%
45.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.5
28.5
-
Game Control
0.9
-0.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
JAC |
7 – 30 L |
-11.9 |
34.8% /
52.4% |
21.7% /
0.0% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
2.4 /
6.0 |
60.9% /
41.5% |
17.4% /
17.1% |
4.0 /
3.8 |
69 /
62 |
44.6% /
53.3% |
43.5% /
45.2% |
12.8% /
32.6% |
2.9 /
4.5 |
4.3% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
66.1% |
26.5 /
38.2 |
| 2 |
@CIN |
13 – 9 W |
1.4 |
40.7% /
31.6% |
11.1% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
5.6 |
51.4% /
54.2% |
31.4% /
16.7% |
4.8 /
3.4 |
62 /
62 |
53.2% /
44.4% |
46.8% /
40.3% |
39.1% /
41.0% |
4.3 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
56.5% /
38.7% |
24.1 /
31.2 |
| 3 |
@NE |
33 – 36 L |
-1.2 |
48.6% /
47.5% |
5.7% /
12.5% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
8.4 |
56.3% /
45.0% |
15.6% /
30.0% |
3.9 /
3.0 |
67 /
60 |
54.7% /
46.8% |
52.2% /
46.7% |
38.8% /
52.3% |
6.2 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
47.8% /
33.3% |
24.0 /
28.8 |
| 4 |
TEN |
57 – 14 W |
20.6 |
58.3% /
40.9% |
5.6% /
9.1% |
2.9% /
20.0% |
7.6 /
5.0 |
50.0% /
35.0% |
14.3% /
15.0% |
4.1 /
4.4 |
78 /
42 |
53.8% /
43.8% |
53.8% /
38.1% |
28.5% /
52.6% |
5.7 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
2.4% |
53.8% /
47.6% |
38.0 /
21.9 |
| 5 |
KC |
34 – 42 L |
-9.9 |
46.9% /
57.9% |
9.4% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
8.5 |
60.9% /
40.0% |
13.0% /
34.3% |
6.3 /
3.6 |
55 /
73 |
56.8% /
47.4% |
52.7% /
49.3% |
64.8% /
31.6% |
7.1 /
6.2 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
41.8% /
47.9% |
27.6 /
31.2 |
| 6 |
CLE |
33 – 17 W |
16.2 |
50.0% /
31.7% |
3.3% /
9.8% |
3.4% /
8.1% |
7.2 /
2.8 |
26.5% /
63.6% |
26.5% /
13.6% |
3.6 /
6.1 |
64 /
63 |
38.8% /
49.0% |
37.5% /
42.9% |
47.5% /
39.7% |
5.3 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.1% /
34.9% |
24.9 /
28.0 |
| 8 |
@SEA |
38 – 41 L |
1.4 |
45.7% /
51.2% |
14.3% /
4.7% |
10.0% /
2.4% |
10.5 /
10.4 |
50.0% /
17.4% |
17.6% /
39.1% |
4.2 /
1.5 |
69 /
66 |
51.7% /
44.0% |
47.8% /
39.4% |
72.7% /
62.4% |
7.4 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
34.8% |
22.4 /
27.4 |
| 9 |
IND |
14 – 20 L |
-6.3 |
28.3% /
45.5% |
4.3% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
8.5 |
38.1% /
44.8% |
14.3% /
20.7% |
4.5 /
3.2 |
67 /
62 |
32.7% /
51.1% |
31.3% /
45.2% |
31.6% /
55.6% |
4.3 /
6.0 |
1.5% /
1.6% |
31.3% /
46.8% |
24.2 /
19.1 |
| 10 |
@LA |
7 – 33 L |
-9.5 |
30.8% /
41.5% |
7.7% /
7.3% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
8.3 |
34.6% /
32.1% |
26.9% /
28.6% |
3.5 /
3.8 |
65 /
69 |
34.0% /
42.6% |
32.3% /
37.7% |
46.8% /
63.9% |
4.4 /
6.5 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
40.6% |
29.4 /
31.2 |
| 11 |
ARI |
31 – 21 W |
1.8 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
3.0% /
5.6% |
3.1% /
5.9% |
6.8 /
6.8 |
47.1% /
33.3% |
20.6% /
38.9% |
3.9 /
2.7 |
67 /
54 |
50.0% /
48.8% |
50.7% /
44.4% |
49.6% /
42.5% |
5.3 /
5.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
50.7% /
33.3% |
22.7 /
36.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CIN |
20 – 0 W |
11.0 |
27.8% /
30.6% |
5.6% /
13.9% |
5.9% /
12.9% |
6.2 /
4.0 |
45.2% /
36.4% |
19.0% /
22.7% |
3.7 /
3.5 |
60 /
58 |
39.1% /
34.1% |
40.0% /
32.8% |
32.1% /
45.7% |
4.5 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
70.0% /
37.9% |
32.2 /
30.8 |
| 2 |
CLE |
24 – 10 W |
9.4 |
50.0% /
31.1% |
5.6% /
6.7% |
2.9% /
9.5% |
5.6 /
6.5 |
36.4% /
38.1% |
27.3% /
23.8% |
4.2 /
4.4 |
69 /
66 |
47.3% /
36.5% |
43.5% /
33.3% |
39.9% /
67.1% |
4.9 /
5.8 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
47.8% /
31.8% |
33.9 /
22.3 |
| 3 |
@JAC |
7 – 44 L |
-23.9 |
24.1% /
54.5% |
6.9% /
0.0% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
1.8 /
7.4 |
56.0% /
31.6% |
20.0% /
10.5% |
5.4 /
4.4 |
54 /
71 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
38.9% /
42.3% |
39.2% /
35.8% |
3.4 /
5.8 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
46.3% /
53.5% |
24.1 /
38.5 |
| 4 |
PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-8.6 |
52.9% /
41.9% |
7.8% /
3.2% |
4.3% /
3.3% |
4.0 /
6.7 |
46.7% /
46.5% |
46.7% /
23.3% |
5.5 /
4.0 |
66 /
74 |
56.9% /
45.6% |
51.5% /
44.6% |
25.3% /
26.4% |
4.4 /
5.2 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
22.7% /
58.1% |
28.5 /
31.1 |
| 5 |
@OAK |
30 – 17 W |
11.8 |
42.3% /
34.5% |
0.0% /
10.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
4.7 |
44.2% /
56.0% |
9.3% /
24.0% |
3.4 /
4.3 |
69 /
54 |
46.9% /
43.9% |
43.5% /
44.4% |
46.5% /
40.0% |
5.3 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
62.3% /
46.3% |
34.0 /
24.9 |
| 6 |
CHI |
24 – 27 L |
-4.4 |
27.3% /
28.6% |
6.8% /
19.0% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
3.8 /
5.3 |
46.2% /
41.8% |
15.4% /
29.1% |
4.8 /
4.2 |
70 /
76 |
37.3% /
42.1% |
34.3% /
38.2% |
21.6% /
41.1% |
4.2 /
4.5 |
1.4% /
2.6% |
37.1% /
72.4% |
29.9 /
27.6 |
| 7 |
@MIN |
16 – 24 L |
-5.1 |
36.4% /
54.8% |
11.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
3.3 /
6.1 |
40.0% /
39.4% |
35.0% /
27.3% |
3.2 /
5.1 |
64 /
64 |
36.2% /
46.9% |
37.5% /
46.9% |
29.8% /
26.3% |
3.3 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.3% /
51.6% |
25.4 /
33.2 |
| 8 |
MIA |
40 – 0 W |
17.5 |
36.4% /
29.8% |
0.0% /
6.4% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
5.5 /
3.2 |
34.9% /
26.3% |
20.9% /
42.1% |
4.1 /
2.4 |
65 /
66 |
42.6% /
30.6% |
35.4% /
28.8% |
45.0% /
41.3% |
4.6 /
3.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
66.2% /
28.8% |
35.3 /
22.2 |
| 9 |
@TEN |
20 – 23 L |
-6.3 |
49.1% /
51.6% |
3.6% /
9.7% |
3.8% /
3.6% |
4.9 /
6.0 |
40.9% /
36.4% |
22.7% /
22.7% |
3.3 /
3.3 |
77 /
53 |
47.4% /
53.8% |
46.8% /
45.3% |
8.2% /
49.0% |
4.4 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
41.5% |
24.8 /
34.6 |
| 11 |
@GB |
23 – 0 W |
7.6 |
32.3% /
38.1% |
9.7% /
14.3% |
3.6% /
8.3% |
5.2 /
4.5 |
44.4% /
44.0% |
25.9% /
32.0% |
2.2 /
3.0 |
58 /
67 |
43.9% /
44.0% |
37.9% /
40.3% |
34.1% /
26.4% |
3.8 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
46.6% /
37.3% |
46.6 /
20.1 |
Houston Texans
@ 
Baltimore Ravens