Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Houston (+20) over ARIZONA

Davis Mills had a 2.45-second average time to throw without starting LT Laremy Tunsil in the lineup last week compared to 2.67 seconds during all other games this season. The loss of Tunsil made it more difficult for Mills to look downfield and he attempted only 2 passes over 20 yards against the Colts. Backup tackle Charlie Heck will have a tough task when lined up across from edge defender Markus Golden, who had two sacks last Sunday. However, edge defender Chandler Jones will miss his second straight game for the Cardinals, and he is worth 0.8 points.

Kyler Murray had a season-low 229 yards last week with strong winds in Cleveland, but it will get easier back at home in Arizona versus a Texans defense surrendering 7.6 yppp (29th). Murray has just 7 rushing yards in his last two starts and Houston’s defensive scheme limits scrambling. The Texans are conceding only 12.3 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Our model favors the Cardinals by 20.9 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points, but Houston applies to a 114-44-4 ATS contrary situation based on the combined average scoring margins of these two teams and the matchup favors Arizona a bit. I’d lean with Houston if the line gets up to +20 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Texans
Cardinals

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 0.00 32.57
Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 53.1%
Sack Rate 0.0% 6.7%
Int Rate 0.0% 3.0%
Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 19.6%
Big Pass Yards 0.0% 43.9%
NYPP 6.62 7.82

Rush

Rush Plays 0.00 30.86
RB YPR 0.00 4.90
Stuff Rate 0.0% 25.7%
Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 51.0%
Big Rush Yards 0.0% 45.0%
Yards Per Rush 0.00 4.77

Game

All Snaps 0.00 63.43
Early Down Succ 0.0% 53.7%
Succ Rate 0.0% 50.7%
Big Yards Rate 0.0% 45.4%
Yards Per Play 5.16 6.26
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 30.54
Run Ratio 0.0% 49.1%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control -3.85 3.85

Points 13.86 29.00

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	JAX	37 – 21 W	14.37	55.9% / 38.5%	2.9% / 1.9%	0.0% / 5.9%	8.50 / 6.13	48.8% / 62.5%	19.5% / 18.8%	3.90 / 4.75	75 / 68	50.9% / 47.3%	52.0% / 44.1%	46.6% / 38.7%	5.99 / 5.81	0.0% / 0.0%	54.7% / 23.5%	0.00 / 0.00
2	@CLV	21 – 31 L	-2.85	50.0% / 73.9%	3.3% / 8.7%	3.4% / 4.8%	7.33 / 8.65	39.3% / 50.0%	35.7% / 26.5%	2.93 / 4.59	58 / 57	41.9% / 63.8%	44.8% / 59.6%	40.8% / 39.6%	5.21 / 6.23	0.0% / 1.8%	48.3% / 59.6%	0.00 / 0.00
3	CAR	9 – 24 L	-6.14	0.0% / 45.9%	0.0% / 8.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.00 / 7.84	0.0% / 48.5%	0.0% / 30.3%	0.00 / 3.55	0 / 70	0.0% / 50.0%	0.0% / 47.1%	0.0% / 48.9%	0.00 / 5.81	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 47.1%	0.00 / 0.00
4	@BUF	0 – 40 L	-15.47	29.2% / 61.3%	12.5% / 3.2%	19.0% / 3.3%	2.54 / 8.10	27.8% / 62.5%	22.2% / 17.5%	2.67 / 4.98	42 / 71	33.3% / 67.9%	28.6% / 62.0%	16.3% / 45.3%	2.60 / 6.34	2.4% / 0.0%	42.9% / 56.3%	0.00 / 0.00
5	NE	22 – 25 L	5.14	46.9% / 54.8%	9.4% / 3.2%	0.0% / 3.3%	9.16 / 7.29	20.8% / 56.7%	12.5% / 30.0%	2.79 / 4.20	56 / 61	29.7% / 57.1%	35.7% / 55.7%	47.8% / 38.9%	6.43 / 5.77	1.8% / 1.6%	42.9% / 49.2%	0.00 / 0.00
6	@IND	3 – 31 L	-12.03	51.1% / 40.9%	4.4% / 9.1%	4.7% / 0.0%	5.09 / 9.73	34.5% / 30.8%	34.5% / 26.9%	4.28 / 6.69	74 / 48	41.8% / 36.1%	44.6% / 35.4%	24.5% / 65.5%	4.77 / 8.08	1.4% / 0.0%	39.2% / 54.2%	0.00 / 0.00
7	@ARZ	5 – 31 L	-9.96	29.4% / 56.3%	5.9% / 12.5%	0.0% / 3.6%	3.47 / 7.03	33.3% / 45.9%	20.0% / 29.7%	2.80 / 4.65	49 / 69	39.4% / 53.8%	30.6% / 50.7%	19.8% / 40.6%	3.27 / 5.75	2.0% / 0.0%	30.6% / 53.6%	0.00 / 0.00

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@TEN	38 – 13 W	15.57	41.2% / 42.9%	5.9% / 14.3%	3.1% / 2.8%	8.24 / 3.86	53.1% / 45.5%	21.9% / 36.4%	4.03 / 3.91	66 / 64	46.2% / 50.0%	47.0% / 43.8%	47.4% / 24.3%	6.20 / 3.88	0.0% / 3.1%	48.5% / 34.4%	0.00 / 0.00
2	MIN	34 – 33 W	-3.69	56.4% / 51.5%	7.7% / 3.0%	5.6% / 0.0%	9.51 / 7.33	66.7% / 51.9%	19.0% / 33.3%	4.90 / 6.56	60 / 60	66.7% / 58.0%	60.0% / 51.7%	44.9% / 43.7%	7.90 / 6.98	0.0% / 0.0%	35.0% / 45.0%	0.00 / 0.00
3	@JAX	31 – 19 W	3.29	61.8% / 51.4%	0.0% / 8.1%	2.9% / 5.9%	9.29 / 5.46	56.7% / 65.5%	23.3% / 17.2%	3.03 / 5.48	64 / 66	66.0% / 67.3%	59.4% / 57.6%	34.9% / 32.0%	6.36 / 5.47	0.0% / 3.0%	46.9% / 43.9%	0.00 / 0.00
4	@LA	37 – 20 W	10.09	62.9% / 56.1%	8.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.4%	7.11 / 6.83	57.5% / 69.6%	27.5% / 17.4%	5.40 / 5.26	75 / 64	60.7% / 63.5%	60.0% / 60.9%	49.4% / 29.4%	6.20 / 6.27	0.0% / 1.6%	53.3% / 35.9%	0.00 / 0.00
5	SF	17 – 10 W	6.53	45.5% / 29.0%	6.1% / 6.5%	0.0% / 3.4%	6.36 / 6.00	48.1% / 50.0%	29.6% / 21.4%	3.48 / 5.43	60 / 59	52.1% / 45.2%	46.7% / 39.0%	39.9% / 45.6%	5.07 / 5.73	1.7% / 0.0%	45.0% / 47.5%	0.00 / 0.00
6	@CLV	37 – 14 W	12.22	46.9% / 41.7%	6.3% / 13.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.50 / 6.03	40.5% / 31.6%	32.4% / 26.3%	3.89 / 3.84	69 / 55	40.4% / 44.7%	43.5% / 38.2%	44.0% / 52.7%	5.10 / 5.27	0.0% / 3.6%	53.6% / 34.5%	0.00 / 0.00
7	HST	31 – 5 W	9.96	56.3% / 29.4%	12.5% / 5.9%	3.6% / 0.0%	7.03 / 3.47	45.9% / 33.3%	29.7% / 20.0%	4.65 / 2.80	69 / 49	53.8% / 39.4%	50.7% / 30.6%	40.6% / 19.8%	5.75 / 3.27	0.0% / 2.0%	53.6% / 30.6%	0.00 / 0.00

Houston Texans @

Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Oct 24

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis