Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Green Bay (pick) at TAMPA BAY

Green Bay’s defense is probably a little overrated right now while Tampa Bay’s offense is likely underrated. The Packers have faced three straight teams playing without their top WR as Julio Jones was clearly not right for the Falcons and took himself out the game at halftime, the Saints did not have Michael Thomas, and Kenny Golladay was out for the Lions. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers receivers are all getting healthier with Pro Bowler Chris Godwin likely back on the field for the first time since week 3 and Mike Evans getting 10 days to recover from a nagging ankle injury.

Tom Brady has played better than his raw numbers suggest thus far as Tampa Bay’s receivers have a league-high 13 dropped passes. There were questions coming into the season about Brady’s ability to throw deep, but he clearly still has the deep ball in his arsenal with 13 completions on passes with 20+ air yards (3rd). Brady is still targeting RBs quite often in his new offense (6th-highest rate), which will be particularly effective in this matchup as Packers backup LB Ty Summers is surrendering more than 2 yards per cover snap filling in for Christian Kirksey.

There is mixed news in the trenches for Tampa Bay’s defense. Vita Vea was in the mix for second-best interior defender in the league behind Aaron Donald but he is out for the year with a broken ankle. Vea ranked 4th in pass rushing efficiency and 13th in run stop percentage (9.9%) and he’ll certainly be missed. Packers Billy Turner surrendered 45 pressures in 2019, more than any other guard, and is now playing the more difficult position at right tackle. Turner will likely struggle to contain edge defender Shaquil Barrett (9th in pass rushing efficiency). The Buccaneers have the league’s best rush defense by our numbers but they will be challenged by Green Bay’s top-rated ground game.

Tampa Bay cornerback Jamel Dean four forced incompletions last week bringing his career total to 19, which leads the league since he was introduced in week 9 last season and is three more than teammate CB Carlton Davis in 2nd. Dean and Davis will have a tough assignment on Sunday with Davante Adams likely back in uniform for the Packers.

Our model makes Green Bay a 3.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 53.4 points. There is value on Green Bay but the matchups favor Tampa Bay and Tom Brady is 45-22 ATS in his career in games following a loss (1-0 ATS this season).

Team Stats
Game Log

Packers
Buccaneers

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.0 34.0
Succ Pass Plays 55.4% 51.7%
Sack Rate 2.1% 7.8%
Int Rate 0.0% 2.3%
Deep Pass Rate 22.1% 18.1%
Big Pass Yards 51.8% 40.6%
NYPP 8.0 7.4

Rush

Rush Plays 31.0 21.0
RB YPR 5.3 5.3
Stuff Rate 13.9% 12.8%
Succ Rush Plays 57.6% 61.5%
Big Rush Yards 50.8% 41.2%
Yards Per Rush 5.4 5.5

Game

All Snaps 67.0 55.0
Early Down Succ 59.4% 57.8%
Succ Rate 56.4% 55.7%
Big Yards Rate 52.5% 40.7%
Yards Per Play 6.8 6.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 32.2 26.0
Run Ratio 46.4% 38.5%
Starting Field Pos 31.8 23.9
Game Control 4.6 -4.6

Points 40.7 28.3

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIN	43 – 34 W	6.6	56.8% / 59.3%	0.0% / 7.4%	0.0% / 4.0%	8.3 / 9.2	65.6% / 72.7%	6.3% / 9.1%	4.9 / 6.1	76 / 49	63.9% / 69.0%	60.5% / 65.3%	48.5% / 51.8%	6.9 / 7.8	0.0% / 0.0%	42.1% / 44.9%	33.6 / 22.8
2	DET	42 – 21 W	5.7	54.8% / 45.9%	3.2% / 10.8%	0.0% / 3.0%	7.4 / 5.9	57.1% / 61.9%	8.6% / 14.3%	7.4 / 4.2	66 / 58	58.8% / 53.3%	56.1% / 51.7%	58.2% / 37.1%	7.4 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	53.0% / 36.2%	28.0 / 20.0
3	@NO	37 – 30 W	1.6	54.5% / 50.0%	3.0% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 7.2	50.0% / 50.0%	26.9% / 15.0%	3.8 / 6.1	59 / 58	55.6% / 51.1%	52.5% / 50.0%	50.9% / 33.2%	6.3 / 6.8	0.0% / 1.7%	44.1% / 34.5%	33.9 / 28.9

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NO	23 – 34 L	-6.1	46.2% / 40.6%	7.7% / 3.1%	5.6% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.9	50.0% / 44.1%	23.1% / 32.4%	3.3 / 2.4	65 / 66	49.0% / 46.9%	47.7% / 42.4%	39.0% / 35.8%	4.8 / 4.1	1.5% / 0.0%	40.0% / 51.5%	18.1 / 41.8
2	CAR	31 – 17 W	12.1	40.0% / 53.2%	0.0% / 10.6%	2.9% / 4.8%	6.2 / 7.2	59.1% / 58.3%	27.3% / 12.5%	5.5 / 3.6	57 / 71	47.8% / 55.2%	47.4% / 54.9%	53.1% / 24.6%	5.9 / 6.0	1.8% / 2.8%	38.6% / 33.8%	37.4 / 26.3
3	@DEN	28 – 10 W	12.6	45.0% / 35.6%	5.0% / 13.3%	0.0% / 5.1%	7.1 / 4.1	52.0% / 35.7%	24.0% / 28.6%	2.7 / 3.0	65 / 59	48.9% / 36.4%	47.7% / 35.6%	42.2% / 34.1%	5.4 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	38.5% / 23.7%	36.9 / 21.5

Green Bay Packers @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Oct 18

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis