Green Bay Packers @

San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Sep 26
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 495
Odds: San Francisco 49ers -3.5, Total: 50

Game Analysis

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SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5/-3) vs Green Bay

Jimmy Garoppolo is averaging 8.8 yards per pass play (7th) despite the 3rd-lowest air yards per attempt. Just 29% of Garoppolo’s passing yards came through the air last week as Kyle Shanahan is the master of scheming yards after the catch. The 49ers lead the NFL in pass blocking efficiency and I don’t expect that to change after this week. Green Bay’s defense has yet to get a sack and Pro Bowl edge rusher Za’Darius Smith is out with a lingering back injury.

One of the main reasons former defensive coordinator Mike Pettine had trouble stopping Kyle Shanahan’s offense (when healthy) was his obsession with deploying six defensive backs. New defensive coordinator Joe Barry might be falling into the same trap as he used dime personnel on over a third of snaps last week as the Lions gashed them for 5.7 yards per carry.

Green Bay’s offense scored on half their drives last week despite difficult conditions in the rain with Davante Adams averaged 13.4 yards per target. The All-Pro WR should crush San Francisco’s backup cornerbacks on Sunday night. Rookie CB Deommodore Lenoir allowed a 91-yard reception last week and CB Josh Norman was flagged twice for pass interference. RB Aaron Jones caught three touchdowns last Monday night, but it will be much tougher versus 49ers’ All-Pro LB Fred Warner, who allowed just 7.5 yards per reception last year (5th).

Our model makes San Francisco a 2.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 50.8 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Packers
  • 49ers
GB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.0 21.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 35.1% 61.9%
  • Sack Rate 5.4% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 5.7% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.9% 14.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 31.3% 36.4%
  • NYPP 5.4 7.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 15.0 39.0
  • RB YPR 2.9 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 13.3% 23.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 20.0% 53.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 35.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 2.9 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 52.0 60.0
  • Early Down Succ 35.1% 56.3%
  • Succ Rate 30.8% 56.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 25.8% 36.0%
  • Yards Per Play 4.7 5.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.9% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 34.8
  • Run Ratio 28.8% 65.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control -15.3 15.3
 
  • Points 3.0 38.0
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