Game Analysis
Green Bay (+3 at +105) over SAN FRANCISCO
San Francisco’s defense is allowing only 4.6 yards per play (2nd) largely due to their pass rush. The 49ers lead the league with an 11.8% sack rate but I do not expect them to be as successful in this matchup. Nick Bosa leads the league in pass rushing efficiency but the rookie edge rusher will be neutralized by All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari, who has a 94% pass block win rate (3rd). Dee Ford will miss this game with a hamstring strain and our metrics value the Pro Bowl edge rusher at 0.7 points. Left guard Elgton Jenkins has yet to concede a sack and will limit DeForest Buckner on the interior. Aaron Rodgers should have time in the pocket but he’ll have to get creative with his top targets blanketed. Davante Adams is gaining 2.67 yards per route run (4th) but he will line up across from Richard Sherman, who is surrendering a league-low 0.58 yards per cover snap. Aaron Jones is averaging 1.96 yards per route run (4th) but the Niners are allowing only 5.1 yards per target to opposing running backs (7th). Nonetheless, Jones ranks 4th among running backs (min 100 attempts) forcing 0.24 missed tackles per rush and Green Bay’s top-ranked ground game should be successful.
San Francisco’s offense will return George Kittle, whose 2.96 yards per route run is on pace to be the highest for any tight end this decade. Emmanuel Sanders is gaining 1.96 yards per route run since joining the 49ers and he is also expected to be in uniform. Jimmy Garoppolo will be happy to have both of his main guys on the field because he is likely to face tremendous pressure on Sunday night. Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith are both among the top 10 edge defenders in pass rush win rate and they will wreak havoc on the outside. Left tackle Joe Staley will not be available and backup Justin Skule ranks 4th-worst in pass blocking efficiency. The 49ers have a 50.9% run play rate (2nd) despite ranking 27th in efficiency and they will be contained by a Packers rush defense ranked 6th.
The Niners have played the second-easiest schedule through 10 games as only two of their opponents are above .500, while Green Bay’s strength of schedule ranks second-hardest by our metrics. The massive difference in opponent quality is skewing the perception and year-to-date statistics for these teams. Our model makes this game a pick, with a predicted total of 49.6 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.9
37.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.4%
48.0%
-
Sack Rate
6.0%
6.4%
-
Int Rate
0.4%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.5%
20.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.6%
47.6%
-
NYPP
7.0
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.3
26.6
-
RB YPR
3.8
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
18.3%
15.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.8%
56.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.6%
30.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
61.2
63.8
-
Early Down Succ
52.5%
53.9%
-
Succ Rate
48.3%
51.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.5%
43.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.5
27.3
-
Run Ratio
39.6%
41.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.4
27.8
-
Game Control
3.6
-3.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.7
33.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.0%
35.2%
-
Sack Rate
5.6%
12.3%
-
Int Rate
3.3%
3.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.2%
14.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.1%
38.2%
-
NYPP
7.2
4.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
34.9
23.4
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
26.6%
26.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.0%
49.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.0%
40.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
68.6
56.6
-
Early Down Succ
45.1%
45.8%
-
Succ Rate
44.9%
41.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.8%
44.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
4.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
2.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
29.0
-
Run Ratio
51.2%
42.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
32.7
27.5
-
Game Control
6.6
-6.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CHI |
10 – 3 W |
2.9 |
40.0% /
34.0% |
14.3% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
4.7 /
4.2 |
22.7% /
40.0% |
36.4% /
26.7% |
2.1 /
3.1 |
57 /
65 |
39.5% /
41.7% |
33.3% /
35.4% |
53.1% /
38.2% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.6% /
23.1% |
30.9 /
22.7 |
| 2 |
MIN |
21 – 16 W |
9.0 |
44.4% /
30.3% |
5.6% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
5.3 /
6.8 |
54.5% /
55.6% |
21.2% /
18.5% |
4.4 /
7.3 |
69 /
60 |
54.7% /
44.7% |
49.3% /
41.7% |
32.5% /
65.6% |
4.9 /
7.0 |
2.9% /
3.3% |
47.8% /
45.0% |
28.5 /
28.7 |
| 3 |
DEN |
27 – 16 W |
7.3 |
37.9% /
45.7% |
0.0% /
17.1% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
8.1 /
4.6 |
52.2% /
60.5% |
17.4% /
13.2% |
3.3 /
3.9 |
52 /
73 |
50.0% /
52.7% |
44.2% /
53.4% |
45.2% /
40.0% |
6.0 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
44.2% /
52.1% |
36.3 /
26.0 |
| 4 |
PHI |
27 – 34 L |
-0.2 |
48.1% /
55.6% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
5.9 |
55.0% /
69.7% |
30.0% /
6.1% |
3.9 /
5.3 |
74 /
60 |
50.8% /
67.3% |
50.0% /
63.3% |
39.5% /
31.3% |
6.6 /
5.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
27.0% /
55.0% |
21.0 /
31.9 |
| 5 |
@DAL |
34 – 24 W |
14.0 |
41.7% /
53.2% |
5.6% /
6.4% |
0.0% /
6.8% |
6.0 /
9.4 |
55.2% /
66.7% |
17.2% /
14.3% |
4.1 /
5.8 |
65 /
68 |
54.9% /
61.7% |
47.7% /
57.4% |
52.5% /
62.3% |
5.2 /
8.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
30.9% |
31.7 /
23.1 |
| 6 |
DET |
23 – 22 W |
-5.8 |
40.0% /
40.0% |
2.5% /
8.6% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
6.9 |
62.1% /
40.0% |
3.4% /
30.0% |
5.9 /
2.8 |
69 /
55 |
53.6% /
45.0% |
49.3% /
40.0% |
49.0% /
58.9% |
6.5 /
5.4 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
42.0% /
36.4% |
21.0 /
33.2 |
| 7 |
OAK |
42 – 24 W |
10.0 |
68.8% /
67.7% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
13.2 /
10.6 |
34.8% /
38.7% |
21.7% /
16.1% |
2.6 /
5.0 |
55 /
62 |
55.8% /
53.1% |
54.5% /
53.2% |
68.4% /
38.0% |
8.7 /
7.8 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
41.8% /
50.0% |
16.6 /
29.3 |
| 8 |
@KC |
31 – 24 W |
3.7 |
52.6% /
47.4% |
13.2% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.6 |
57.7% /
75.0% |
7.7% /
5.0% |
4.5 /
4.4 |
64 /
58 |
55.1% /
57.4% |
54.7% /
56.9% |
48.1% /
38.6% |
5.8 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
40.6% /
34.5% |
26.6 /
28.6 |
| 9 |
@LAC |
11 – 26 L |
-9.8 |
42.1% /
60.0% |
7.9% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
9.4 |
63.6% /
63.2% |
9.1% /
13.2% |
4.1 /
4.2 |
49 /
68 |
55.3% /
66.7% |
46.9% /
61.8% |
0.0% /
37.1% |
3.8 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
22.4% /
55.9% |
25.8 /
29.7 |
| 10 |
CAR |
24 – 16 W |
4.9 |
38.7% /
45.7% |
6.5% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
7.3 /
6.1 |
70.4% /
52.2% |
18.5% /
8.7% |
6.0 /
5.2 |
58 /
69 |
55.1% /
48.3% |
53.4% /
47.8% |
56.2% /
28.7% |
6.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
46.6% /
33.3% |
25.6 /
25.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@TB |
31 – 17 W |
4.2 |
42.9% /
33.3% |
3.6% /
7.7% |
3.7% /
8.3% |
5.6 /
4.5 |
34.4% /
53.8% |
34.4% /
23.1% |
3.1 /
4.7 |
60 /
65 |
40.0% /
43.1% |
38.3% /
41.5% |
48.0% /
27.1% |
4.3 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
53.3% /
40.0% |
29.4 /
28.6 |
| 2 |
@CIN |
41 – 17 W |
16.7 |
65.4% /
37.0% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
3.8% /
2.4% |
12.0 /
6.3 |
64.3% /
31.6% |
9.5% /
52.6% |
6.2 /
1.3 |
68 /
65 |
68.4% /
30.4% |
64.7% /
35.4% |
63.1% /
53.2% |
8.4 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
61.8% /
29.2% |
29.6 /
25.6 |
| 3 |
PIT |
24 – 20 W |
-2.2 |
51.5% /
24.1% |
3.0% /
6.9% |
6.3% /
3.7% |
8.1 /
5.5 |
52.5% /
50.0% |
20.0% /
27.3% |
4.2 /
3.6 |
73 /
51 |
52.5% /
39.5% |
52.1% /
35.3% |
40.1% /
52.3% |
6.0 /
4.7 |
4.1% /
2.0% |
54.8% /
43.1% |
38.3 /
26.8 |
| 5 |
CLE |
31 – 3 W |
18.3 |
41.9% /
25.0% |
6.5% /
14.3% |
0.0% /
8.3% |
5.5 /
2.8 |
37.5% /
33.3% |
20.0% /
22.2% |
6.9 /
5.7 |
71 /
46 |
40.4% /
34.3% |
39.4% /
28.3% |
52.0% /
71.1% |
6.3 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
56.3% /
39.1% |
34.0 /
26.1 |
| 6 |
@LA |
20 – 7 W |
4.5 |
51.4% /
28.6% |
5.7% /
14.3% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
1.7 |
36.6% /
63.6% |
29.3% /
36.4% |
2.4 /
5.0 |
76 /
50 |
42.9% /
61.1% |
43.4% /
44.0% |
19.9% /
29.3% |
4.4 /
3.1 |
1.3% /
2.0% |
53.9% /
44.0% |
35.4 /
34.0 |
| 7 |
@WAS |
9 – 0 W |
1.5 |
34.8% /
26.7% |
8.7% /
20.0% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
3.3 |
46.2% /
38.5% |
25.6% /
23.1% |
3.5 /
4.0 |
62 /
41 |
40.9% /
35.5% |
41.9% /
34.1% |
41.0% /
38.3% |
4.6 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
2.4% |
62.9% /
63.4% |
32.5 /
23.8 |
| 8 |
CAR |
51 – 13 W |
19.5 |
52.0% /
31.8% |
12.0% /
15.9% |
4.5% /
8.1% |
6.2 /
2.3 |
36.8% /
47.4% |
23.7% /
21.1% |
6.1 /
6.8 |
63 /
63 |
43.1% /
43.8% |
42.9% /
36.5% |
59.8% /
52.6% |
6.2 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.3% /
30.2% |
45.6 /
25.4 |
| 9 |
@ARI |
28 – 25 W |
5.3 |
55.3% /
48.1% |
2.6% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
7.6 |
32.3% /
60.9% |
35.5% /
17.4% |
3.3 /
6.7 |
69 /
50 |
38.8% /
59.5% |
44.9% /
54.0% |
50.9% /
58.3% |
6.0 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.9% /
46.0% |
27.6 /
18.3 |
| 10 |
SEA |
24 – 27 L |
1.9 |
37.3% /
53.8% |
9.8% /
12.8% |
2.2% /
2.9% |
4.2 /
4.8 |
33.3% /
58.8% |
25.9% /
17.6% |
3.2 /
4.3 |
78 /
73 |
36.7% /
59.6% |
35.9% /
56.2% |
25.2% /
28.6% |
3.9 /
4.6 |
2.6% /
4.1% |
34.6% /
46.6% |
25.0 /
37.0 |
| 11 |
ARI |
30 – 26 W |
-3.6 |
57.4% /
43.2% |
4.3% /
10.8% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
3.5 |
15.8% /
56.0% |
42.1% /
20.0% |
1.8 /
5.4 |
66 /
62 |
47.1% /
51.0% |
45.5% /
48.4% |
47.7% /
33.5% |
6.7 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
28.8% /
40.3% |
29.8 /
29.0 |
Green Bay Packers
@ 
San Francisco 49ers