Game Analysis

Lean – Philadelphia (-2) over Green Bay

• This is a neutral site game in Sao Paulo and the field surface is grass.
• Heading into last year’s postseason, Green Bay’s offense was rated slightly below average. Then, Jordan Love averaged 1.13 EPA/play in the Wild Card round which was the most of any playoff quarterback in the last two decades. Now, with Love and the young receivers another year older the market has this offense rated 1.5 points better.
• The Eagles brought in a new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and they might have the best cornerback depth in the NFL. Philadelphia’s first two draft picks were cornerbacks, Darius Slay has made the Pro Bowl in 6 of last 7 seasons, and Isaiah Rodgers is underrated coming off a year-long gambling suspension. Rodgers ranked 9th in successful coverage over expected in 2022 as he conceded a league-low target rate in his coverage.
• At safety, the Eagles brought in CJ Gardner Johnson, who led the NFL in interceptions in 2022 with the Eagles.
• Philadelphia’s pass rush had 109 pressures walk out the door with the Fletcher Cox retirement and Haason Reddick being traded to the Jets.
• The Eagles brought in Bryce Huff, a pass rush specialist who played 43% of snaps on 3rd down. Huff had a league-high 22% pressure rate last season. Huff also led the NFL in pressure rate in 2022, with pressure on 26% of his pass rushes. Huff is not as well-rounded as Reddick but should be able to come close to his pass rushing production.
• Philadelphia’s offense is also getting a new coordinator and Jalen Hurts was quoted saying 95% of the offense is new.
• Eagles OC Kellen Moore’s weakness has been run game design, particularly in the back half of seasons, but you’d expect top offensive line coach and run game coordinator Jeff Stoutland to help in that department.
• Moore will be charged with finding Hurts answers against the blitz and I think they’ll do so by getting new RB Saquon Barkley involved as a receiver. The Eagles gave Barkley a 3-year $38 million deal which is nearly the exact same as the Falcons gave WR Darnell Mooney. The running back depreciation might’ve gone too far as I think Barkely will be more valuable than Mooney in 2024.
• Barkely was running behind an awful offensive line last year but he averaged 0.3 rush yards over expected which was a half yard per carry better than De’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell, who were the Eagles RBs in 2023.
• Philadelphia’s offense was rated top 5 in 2022 and top 10 last season by the market. I think Barkley and better play calling make up some of the gap for the loss of Kelce.
• Also, the Eagles have a matchup advantage versus new Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, who ran more single-high safety looks than anyone in college football during his time at Boston College.
• Green Bay leaned into this philosophy switch by giving centerfield S Xavier McKinney four-year, $68 million deal, the only big deal for a safety this offseason.
• Boston College had a 43% Cover 1 Rate in 2023 and the Packers called 30% Cover 1 in the preseason. Dallas led the NFL last year with a 34% Cover 1 Rate.
• The Eagles offense averaged 25% more yppp versus Cover 1 last season than all other coverages because wide receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith torch man.
• Our model makes Philadelphia a 2.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 48.0.