Game Analysis

PHILADELPHIA (-4.5) vs Green Bay

Lean – Over (45.5)

Strong Opinion – AJ Brown (PHIL) Over 5.5 Receptions to (Constraint is -125)

Lean – Saquon Barkley (PHIL) Longest Rush Over 21.5 Yards (listed a lean because it’s not available in all books, but it has the same value as others). It will not count in our records, win or lose.

• There are question marks with both quarterbacks in the leadup to this game as Jalen Hurts has not played since his concussion on December 22nd and Jordan Love lost feeling in his fingers against the Bears last week. Both quarterbacks will suit up on Sunday.
• However, it’s unlikely to be a typical Love performance as he leads the NFL with 6 completions on throws 40+ yards downfield but Green Bay’s deep threat WR Christian Watson is sidelined.
• Watson will be replaced in the lineup by WR Dontayvion Wicks, who is the best backup WR in the NFL, ranking 2nd in the entire league with a 75% separation rate. I don’t think Wicks will be a downgrade from a success rate standpoint for the Packers but the lack of Watson will hinder explosiveness for Green Bay’s offense.
• Eagles’ CB Cooper DeJean conceded -28.3 EPA (2nd) and Philadelphia’s defense changed when the rookie came into the lineup. The Eagles were the lone defense in the NFL to concede less than a 40% dropback success rate from weeks 6 through 17 with DeJean as a starter.
• The Packers, Eagles, and Ravens were the only three offenses to have more rushes than passes this season, so the ground game will be massively important in deciding this game.
• Green Bay RB Josh Jacobs had a league-high 88 forced missed tackles but he will be shut down by Philadelphia’s defense allowing  -0.19 EPA/rush (2nd).
• Meanwhile, Green Bay’s rush defense has a propensity to allow huge plays. The Packers surrendered a run of at least +1.0 EPA at a 15% rate (31st).
• Eagles’ RB Saquon Barkley led the NFL with 14 fourth-quarter carries of 10+ yards and I expect him to hit an explosive run and be the closer to Philadelphia in this game.
• The Eagles have faced the NFL’s easiest schedule of defenses – nearly a point easier than average according to our numbers – and this is not necessarily an ideal schematic matchup for Jalen Hurts and the passing attack that prefers man-coverage.
• Green Bay’s defense has the 4th-highest Cover 2 rate and Philadelphia’s yppp against Cover 2 was only 87% the yppp versus other coverages (28th).
• Eagles’ C Cam Jurgens ranked 3rd-worst in pass blocking efficiency and is the clear weakness on Philadelphia’s offensive line. The Packers will attack Jurgens by blitzing linebacker Edgerrin Cooper up the middle. Cooper had 11 pressures on 51 pass-rushing snaps during his rookie season. Furthermore, Green Bay DT Devonte Wyatt battled an ankle injury in October but he ranked 10th in pass-rushing efficiency in the 13 weeks he got at least a third of the snaps and he will wreak havoc on the Eagles’ interior offensive line as well.
• Our model makes Philadelphia a 4.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 48.6 points.