Green Bay Packers @

New York Jets

Sun, Dec 23
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 117
Odds: New York Jets +3, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Note: The Over was a Best Bet released to subscribers early in the week when the total was at 45 points. The line has moved considerably and is not worth playing as a Best Bet at the current number.

Lean – Over (47) – Green Bay (-3) vs NY JETS

The advanced spread for this game was Packers by 3.5 and the line moved from pick to Green Bay -3 when news broke on Wednesday that Aaron Rodgers would indeed be the starter. However, the total only moved a point after the announcement, which is simply mispricing by the market.

Right tackle Bryan Bulaga will likely be back on the field to protect Rodgers after backup Jason Spriggs conceded 2 sacks and 6 pressures the last two weeks. New York’s defense ranks in the middle of the pack in yards per play but has been fortunate to allow opponent conversions on less than a third of 3rd-downs this season, which ranks 2nd in the league and is mostly due to luck given that 3rd down efficiency is highly correlated to overall defensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Jets have a poor punt team and opponents drives are starting at the 31-yard line on average (31st). Thus, the Jets’ defense is not as good as their yardage stats would suggest.

The Packers offense will take a hit without RB Aaron Jones in the lineup, as he gains a half yard per rush after contact more than Jamaal Williams, but I’m expecting an all-out prove-it performance from Aaron Rodgers – otherwise, he wouldn’t be playing.

Sam Darnold is displaying the typical traits of a rookie quarterback, as he’s interception prone and looks significantly more comfortable at home when he doesn’t have to deal with crowd noise at the line of scrimmage. Darnold is averaging for 6.5 yards per pass play at MetLife Stadium against defenses rated a point better than average by our numbers. Green Bay’s defense rates below average and is now without probably their two best players in Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels. The duo both ranked in the top 10 in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders and in the top 20 in run stop rate. Right tackle Brandon Shell will miss this remainder of the season for the Jets, which would normally be a decent downgrade as he ranks 22nd in pass blocking efficiency. However, Clay Matthews is clearly on the downslope of his career and has recorded just 4.5 sacks this season (72nd) and I don’t think he’ll cause too many problems in this game. The Packers front is terrible without their dominant interior tandem and I expect Darnold to build on his success at home.

Our model favors Green Bay by 6.7 points with a predicted total of 49.1 points but we prefer the over given that the Packers apply to a very negative 89-170-9 ATS final road game situation. The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 46 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Packers
  • Jets
GB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.6 34.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.6% 47.9%
  • Sack Rate 8.4% 8.4%
  • Int Rate 0.5% 1.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.6% 19.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.5% 44.8%
  • NYPP 6.6 6.8



Rush


  • Rush Plays 21.8 28.7
  • RB YPR 4.6 4.3
  • Stuff Rate 17.6% 17.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.2% 46.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 42.3% 37.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.9 4.4




Game

  • All Snaps 62.4 63.5
  • Early Down Succ 50.9% 49.6%
  • Succ Rate 48.8% 46.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 45.0% 43.0%
  • Yards Per Play 6.0 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.2 29.1
  • Run Ratio 34.9% 45.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.0 30.1
  • Game Control -0.1 0.1
 
  • Points 23.7 23.6
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