Game Analysis
Note: The Over was a Best Bet released to subscribers early in the week when the total was at 45 points. The line has moved considerably and is not worth playing as a Best Bet at the current number.
Lean – Over (47) – Green Bay (-3) vs NY JETS
The advanced spread for this game was Packers by 3.5 and the line moved from pick to Green Bay -3 when news broke on Wednesday that Aaron Rodgers would indeed be the starter. However, the total only moved a point after the announcement, which is simply mispricing by the market.
Right tackle Bryan Bulaga will likely be back on the field to protect Rodgers after backup Jason Spriggs conceded 2 sacks and 6 pressures the last two weeks. New York’s defense ranks in the middle of the pack in yards per play but has been fortunate to allow opponent conversions on less than a third of 3rd-downs this season, which ranks 2nd in the league and is mostly due to luck given that 3rd down efficiency is highly correlated to overall defensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Jets have a poor punt team and opponents drives are starting at the 31-yard line on average (31st). Thus, the Jets’ defense is not as good as their yardage stats would suggest.
The Packers offense will take a hit without RB Aaron Jones in the lineup, as he gains a half yard per rush after contact more than Jamaal Williams, but I’m expecting an all-out prove-it performance from Aaron Rodgers – otherwise, he wouldn’t be playing.
Sam Darnold is displaying the typical traits of a rookie quarterback, as he’s interception prone and looks significantly more comfortable at home when he doesn’t have to deal with crowd noise at the line of scrimmage. Darnold is averaging for 6.5 yards per pass play at MetLife Stadium against defenses rated a point better than average by our numbers. Green Bay’s defense rates below average and is now without probably their two best players in Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels. The duo both ranked in the top 10 in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders and in the top 20 in run stop rate. Right tackle Brandon Shell will miss this remainder of the season for the Jets, which would normally be a decent downgrade as he ranks 22nd in pass blocking efficiency. However, Clay Matthews is clearly on the downslope of his career and has recorded just 4.5 sacks this season (72nd) and I don’t think he’ll cause too many problems in this game. The Packers front is terrible without their dominant interior tandem and I expect Darnold to build on his success at home.
Our model favors Green Bay by 6.7 points with a predicted total of 49.1 points but we prefer the over given that the Packers apply to a very negative 89-170-9 ATS final road game situation. The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 46 points or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.6
34.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.6%
47.9%
-
Sack Rate
8.4%
8.4%
-
Int Rate
0.5%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.6%
19.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.5%
44.8%
-
NYPP
6.6
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.8
28.7
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
17.6%
17.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.2%
46.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.3%
37.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
62.4
63.5
-
Early Down Succ
50.9%
49.6%
-
Succ Rate
48.8%
46.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.0%
43.0%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.2
29.1
-
Run Ratio
34.9%
45.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
30.1
-
Game Control
-0.1
0.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.1
36.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.0%
45.6%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
4.5%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.2%
17.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.6%
43.3%
-
NYPP
6.3
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.1
28.9
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
30.8%
26.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.1%
42.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.3%
47.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
61.3
65.4
-
Early Down Succ
42.1%
48.1%
-
Succ Rate
39.7%
44.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.1%
46.1%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
28.3
-
Run Ratio
44.4%
43.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.9
30.0
-
Game Control
-2.1
2.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
CHI |
24 – 23 W |
-9.5 |
43.9% / 35.9% |
9.8% / 10.3% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 4.0 |
27.8% / 59.3% |
16.7% / 18.5% |
3.8 / 5.1 |
59 / 66 |
40.0% / 48.9% |
39.0% / 45.5% |
59.5% / 38.1% |
6.3 / 4.5 |
1.7% / 1.5% |
30.5% / 40.9% |
30.7 / 25.7 |
2 |
MIN |
29 – 29 T |
6.3 |
48.9% / 56.0% |
8.9% / 4.0% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
5.6 / 8.2 |
54.2% / 44.4% |
25.0% / 5.6% |
4.1 / 3.8 |
69 / 68 |
55.4% / 53.7% |
50.7% / 52.9% |
31.3% / 44.4% |
5.1 / 7.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.8% / 26.5% |
29.9 / 26.5 |
3 |
@WAS |
17 – 31 L |
-12.0 |
34.7% / 50.0% |
8.2% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
4.9 / 11.0 |
64.7% / 32.4% |
11.8% / 10.8% |
5.9 / 4.5 |
66 / 57 |
42.9% / 40.5% |
42.4% / 38.6% |
35.9% / 60.1% |
5.2 / 6.8 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
25.8% / 64.9% |
26.4 / 30.8 |
4 |
BUF |
22 – 0 W |
12.8 |
47.6% / 27.5% |
4.8% / 17.5% |
2.5% / 6.1% |
6.7 / 2.2 |
56.3% / 43.8% |
37.5% / 25.0% |
4.4 / 3.6 |
74 / 56 |
50.0% / 37.5% |
51.4% / 32.1% |
49.6% / 31.0% |
5.7 / 2.6 |
1.4% / 1.8% |
43.2% / 28.6% |
27.4 / 27.3 |
5 |
@DET |
23 – 31 L |
-13.9 |
80.6% / 52.9% |
11.1% / 17.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
11.8 / 10.0 |
52.4% / 34.5% |
9.5% / 27.6% |
4.7 / 3.3 |
57 / 46 |
55.6% / 32.6% |
70.2% / 41.3% |
41.2% / 37.7% |
9.2 / 5.8 |
5.3% / 0.0% |
36.8% / 63.0% |
20.5 / 46.1 |
6 |
SF |
33 – 30 W |
-1.4 |
37.5% / 52.0% |
6.3% / 8.0% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
8.4 / 9.1 |
52.4% / 66.7% |
14.3% / 13.3% |
5.5 / 5.8 |
69 / 55 |
44.4% / 67.4% |
42.0% / 60.0% |
55.5% / 54.1% |
7.6 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 3.6% |
30.4% / 54.5% |
32.0 / 25.9 |
8 |
@LA |
27 – 29 L |
2.6 |
45.5% / 43.9% |
9.1% / 12.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.7 / 6.9 |
63.2% / 42.9% |
21.1% / 28.6% |
5.6 / 3.9 |
52 / 76 |
58.1% / 43.6% |
51.9% / 43.4% |
69.4% / 51.3% |
6.9 / 5.5 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
36.5% / 46.1% |
21.1 / 31.7 |
9 |
@NE |
17 – 31 L |
-5.1 |
47.7% / 55.3% |
2.3% / 5.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 8.2 |
60.0% / 47.1% |
12.0% / 20.6% |
4.7 / 3.7 |
69 / 72 |
54.5% / 61.1% |
52.2% / 51.4% |
36.4% / 55.1% |
5.3 / 6.1 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
36.2% / 47.2% |
19.3 / 29.2 |
10 |
MIA |
31 – 12 W |
9.9 |
50.0% / 37.2% |
6.7% / 14.0% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
6.1 / 3.8 |
50.0% / 56.5% |
10.7% / 13.0% |
7.1 / 5.7 |
58 / 66 |
58.5% / 45.8% |
50.0% / 43.9% |
54.5% / 38.1% |
6.6 / 4.5 |
1.7% / 1.5% |
48.3% / 34.8% |
35.7 / 31.4 |
11 |
@SEA |
24 – 27 L |
4.5 |
45.7% / 44.1% |
14.3% / 8.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.9 / 6.0 |
38.5% / 47.4% |
15.4% / 7.9% |
3.7 / 4.6 |
48 / 72 |
48.6% / 48.0% |
43.8% / 45.8% |
55.2% / 42.5% |
7.5 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
27.1% / 52.8% |
30.4 / 22.3 |
12 |
@MIN |
17 – 24 L |
-1.9 |
46.9% / 64.1% |
12.5% / 5.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 8.3 |
52.6% / 29.0% |
15.8% / 19.4% |
4.3 / 3.0 |
51 / 70 |
57.5% / 52.9% |
49.0% / 48.6% |
37.4% / 42.1% |
5.0 / 6.0 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 44.3% |
26.6 / 35.6 |
13 |
ARI |
17 – 20 L |
-0.1 |
49.0% / 35.7% |
2.0% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.5 / 4.8 |
56.5% / 43.3% |
26.1% / 13.3% |
4.3 / 6.1 |
74 / 58 |
56.9% / 41.9% |
51.4% / 39.7% |
13.8% / 59.5% |
4.4 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
31.1% / 51.7% |
25.6 / 24.9 |
14 |
ATL |
34 – 20 W |
12.3 |
44.4% / 56.8% |
11.1% / 4.5% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
4.5 / 5.4 |
46.2% / 66.7% |
15.4% / 20.8% |
5.3 / 4.5 |
62 / 68 |
44.7% / 66.0% |
45.2% / 60.3% |
48.8% / 20.3% |
4.9 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
41.9% / 35.3% |
25.9 / 27.8 |
15 |
@CHI |
17 – 24 L |
-5.3 |
44.7% / 58.6% |
10.6% / 3.4% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 8.0 |
42.1% / 36.7% |
15.8% / 26.7% |
4.6 / 3.3 |
66 / 59 |
45.1% / 54.3% |
43.9% / 47.5% |
41.8% / 27.0% |
4.9 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
28.8% / 50.8% |
26.1 / 36.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DET |
48 – 17 W |
11.9 |
65.2% / 44.2% |
8.7% / 0.0% |
4.8% / 9.6% |
7.8 / 5.8 |
32.6% / 37.5% |
9.3% / 25.0% |
4.0 / 2.5 |
66 / 68 |
53.8% / 51.0% |
43.9% / 42.6% |
55.1% / 37.9% |
5.4 / 5.0 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
65.2% / 23.5% |
40.7 / 23.0 |
2 |
MIA |
12 – 20 L |
-9.2 |
43.2% / 44.4% |
6.8% / 14.8% |
4.9% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 4.5 |
26.3% / 52.9% |
36.8% / 26.5% |
2.2 / 4.1 |
63 / 61 |
39.6% / 55.8% |
38.1% / 49.2% |
50.3% / 36.2% |
5.7 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 3.3% |
30.2% / 55.7% |
24.1 / 34.4 |
3 |
@CLE |
17 – 21 L |
5.4 |
36.4% / 36.6% |
6.1% / 9.8% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 4.6 |
50.0% / 42.9% |
43.3% / 31.4% |
3.6 / 3.9 |
63 / 76 |
42.6% / 42.6% |
42.9% / 39.5% |
22.4% / 32.3% |
4.3 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
47.6% / 46.1% |
23.2 / 33.3 |
4 |
@JAC |
12 – 31 L |
-10.3 |
32.4% / 57.5% |
8.1% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
3.9 / 9.4 |
28.6% / 38.2% |
35.7% / 20.6% |
2.4 / 3.7 |
51 / 74 |
35.1% / 50.0% |
31.4% / 48.6% |
23.6% / 50.5% |
3.5 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 2.7% |
27.5% / 45.9% |
29.8 / 26.8 |
5 |
DEN |
34 – 16 W |
7.7 |
72.7% / 71.8% |
9.1% / 10.3% |
10.0% / 2.9% |
17.2 / 8.8 |
46.2% / 47.1% |
17.9% / 47.1% |
8.3 / 5.4 |
50 / 56 |
42.6% / 56.1% |
52.0% / 64.3% |
74.5% / 42.2% |
10.3 / 7.8 |
2.0% / 0.0% |
78.0% / 30.4% |
28.8 / 26.2 |
6 |
IND |
42 – 34 W |
6.3 |
67.7% / 46.5% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
3.4% / 7.0% |
8.6 / 7.0 |
23.1% / 60.9% |
28.2% / 17.4% |
2.8 / 5.5 |
70 / 66 |
48.0% / 54.7% |
42.9% / 51.5% |
41.9% / 32.5% |
5.4 / 6.5 |
1.4% / 1.5% |
55.7% / 34.8% |
40.5 / 32.7 |
7 |
MIN |
17 – 37 L |
-7.4 |
26.7% / 34.1% |
6.7% / 2.4% |
7.1% / 0.0% |
4.3 / 5.6 |
37.5% / 24.0% |
33.3% / 44.0% |
3.0 / 3.6 |
69 / 66 |
33.3% / 35.4% |
30.4% / 30.3% |
50.2% / 58.0% |
3.8 / 4.8 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
34.8% / 37.9% |
27.3 / 41.4 |
8 |
@CHI |
10 – 24 L |
-6.9 |
36.7% / 45.2% |
3.3% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 7.0 |
20.8% / 52.9% |
37.5% / 14.7% |
2.4 / 5.3 |
54 / 65 |
30.8% / 51.9% |
29.6% / 49.2% |
20.3% / 46.3% |
3.8 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.4% / 52.3% |
22.0 / 28.5 |
9 |
@MIA |
6 – 13 L |
-3.2 |
34.9% / 42.9% |
9.3% / 14.3% |
10.3% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 3.7 |
38.1% / 24.1% |
28.6% / 24.1% |
3.8 / 2.3 |
64 / 57 |
42.9% / 40.0% |
35.9% / 33.3% |
41.8% / 15.3% |
4.4 / 3.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.8% / 50.9% |
18.4 / 32.4 |
10 |
BUF |
10 – 41 L |
-20.8 |
37.8% / 48.1% |
8.1% / 3.7% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
3.1 / 8.9 |
55.6% / 47.9% |
38.9% / 18.8% |
4.6 / 4.5 |
55 / 75 |
52.5% / 49.1% |
43.6% / 48.0% |
37.2% / 53.0% |
3.6 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.7% / 64.0% |
28.5 / 36.8 |
12 |
NE |
13 – 27 L |
-3.1 |
39.1% / 48.4% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 9.1 |
53.3% / 59.5% |
20.0% / 16.2% |
4.9 / 5.8 |
61 / 68 |
43.5% / 58.5% |
42.6% / 54.4% |
28.4% / 57.7% |
5.5 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
24.6% / 54.4% |
27.1 / 16.8 |
13 |
@TEN |
22 – 26 L |
8.4 |
40.6% / 36.8% |
6.3% / 7.9% |
3.3% / 2.9% |
3.9 / 7.2 |
42.4% / 34.8% |
33.3% / 17.4% |
4.7 / 5.7 |
65 / 61 |
46.0% / 43.8% |
41.5% / 36.1% |
28.9% / 69.6% |
4.3 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.8% / 37.7% |
32.3 / 25.3 |
14 |
@BUF |
27 – 23 W |
-4.8 |
48.0% / 37.5% |
0.0% / 7.5% |
4.0% / 5.4% |
6.8 / 4.8 |
30.0% / 45.2% |
33.3% / 19.4% |
2.7 / 5.7 |
55 / 71 |
37.8% / 38.6% |
38.2% / 40.8% |
38.4% / 39.4% |
4.5 / 5.2 |
1.8% / 1.4% |
54.5% / 43.7% |
47.1 / 27.2 |
15 |
HOU |
22 – 29 L |
-3.8 |
48.8% / 44.1% |
7.3% / 17.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 7.0 |
35.5% / 27.8% |
35.5% / 44.4% |
2.9 / 2.7 |
72 / 52 |
40.4% / 46.3% |
43.1% / 38.5% |
34.3% / 74.2% |
4.4 / 5.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
43.1% / 34.6% |
28.5 / 35.6 |