Green Bay Packers @

Minnesota Vikings

Mon, Dec 23
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 481
Odds: Minnesota Vikings -5.5, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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MINNESOTA (-5.5) vs Green Bay

The Vikings could be without Dalvin Cook on Monday night but he isn’t worth more than a half point to the spread. It will be more important for Minnesota’s offense to have Adam Thielen fully healthy after playing in only about half the teams snaps in his return to the lineup last week. Thielen is gaining 2.19 yards per route run (10th) and Stefon Diggs is averaging 2.75 yards per route run (2nd). Having two excellent receivers on the field is important against the Packers because one of them will expose Packers’ CB Kevin King, who is surrendering a league-high 1.96 yards per cover snap. Right tackle Brian O’Neill has yet to concede a sack all season and he will neutralize edge defender Preston Smith, whose 24% pass rush win rate ranks 9th. Kenny Clark has 27 pressures in his last five games and now ranks 6th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders. Clark’s hot streak should continue in this game as Vikings’ left guard Pat Elflein has allowed 6 sacks (3rd-most) and center Garrett Bradbury has surrendered 21 pressures (6th-most).

Green Bay’s 4th-rated ground game will be limited by a Vikings rush defense ranked 4th and RB Aaron Jones (1.72 yards per route run ranks 7th) will be blanketed by Eric Kendricks, who leads all linebackers conceding a reception on only one of every 13.6 coverage snaps. It will be on Aaron Rodgers to step up and hit his receivers down the field. Davante Adams is averaging 2.34 yards per route run (7th) and he will be particularly successful when lined up across from Trae Waynes, one of just 11 qualifying cornerbacks allowing 1.50 yards per cover snap. Pro Bowl left tackle David Bakhtiari conceded one lone pressure on 36 pass-blocking snaps versus the Bears last week and he will neutralize edge rusher Everson Griffen. Danielle Hunter ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency among edge defenders but he will be contained by right tackle Bryan Bulaga, who has surrendered only 20 pressures all year (10th). Rodgers won’t have the short throws to Jones to lean on but he should have time to find Adams open down field in this game.

I expect both quarterbacks to expose weak cornerbacks on the other side of the ball. The Packers can clinch the NFC North and a home playoff game with a win but our model makes Minnesota a 4.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 44.0 points. I’m passing but I used Green Bay in my pool.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Packers
  • Vikings
GB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.4 37.1
  • Succ Pass Plays 43.9% 46.6%
  • Sack Rate 6.3% 6.8%
  • Int Rate 0.3% 2.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.6% 19.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 44.2% 47.9%
  • NYPP 6.4 6.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.9 26.4
  • RB YPR 3.9 4.6
  • Stuff Rate 19.1% 18.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.8% 53.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 37.0% 31.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 4.5




Game

  • All Snaps 61.4 63.5
  • Early Down Succ 50.5% 52.0%
  • Succ Rate 46.7% 49.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 44.1% 44.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.1 27.8
  • Run Ratio 40.6% 41.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.2 27.6
  • Game Control 3.3 -3.3
 
  • Points 23.6 20.2
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