Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – MINNESOTA (+3) over Green Bay Packers

Despite the injury to Sam Bradford, that has kept him out of 3 ½ games thus far, the Vikings +0.9 net yards per play ranks second in the league with the offense averaging a surprising 5.7 yppl (9^th) to go along with the predictably strong defensive numbers. The Vikings quarterback for this game hasn’t been announced yet, but whoever starts will have a good matchup against a Packers defense rated 28^th in my metrics.

Minnesota’s defense ranks 11^th in yards per play, but their 3^rd down luck is likely to catch up with them. The Vikings held the Bears to 3 for 12 on 3^rd down last week maintaining their league-best opponent 3^rd down conversion rate – they’ve held opponents to just 25% on 3^rd downs, which I don’t expect to continue moving forward. In fact, no team last season held opponents to under a 30% 3^rd down conversion rate for the full season. That doesn’t mean that the Vikings won’t continue to be good defensively, but rather that they’re likely to give up a few more points per game as their 3^rd down defense regresses to expectations.

Despite scoring more than 27 points per game, the Packers offense is gaining just 5.3 yppl. Aaron Rodgers has been held to 5.9 yppp – a full yard per play less than his career average of 6.9 yppp. Rodgers is still a very accurate thrower of the football but he’s had less time to look downfield for big plays and has been sacked third most in the league. The Vikings talented defensive line is looking for a breakout game, as they’ve been pretty mediocre in getting to the quarterback thus far, and this could be the game to boost their stats.

The Packers are a probably a better team than the Vikings moving forward, but not enough to justify laying a field goal on the road. I’ll lean with Minnesota +3 or better in this one.

Team Stats
Game Log

Packers
Vikings

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 41.8 32.4
Succ Pass Plays 47.5% 48.5%
Sack Rate 9.2% 7.1%
Int Rate 1.4% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 13.2% 19.3%
Big Pass Yards 46.7% 34.1%
NYPP 5.8 6.1

Rush

Rush Plays 22.8 28.2
RB YPR 3.7 3.9
Stuff Rate 18.0% 27.7%
Succ Rush Plays 50.2% 45.3%
Big Rush Yards 26.5% 46.6%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.4

Game

All Snaps 64.6 60.6
Early Down Succ 48.7% 48.1%
Succ Rate 48.5% 46.9%
Big Yards Rate 42.8% 39.0%
Yards Per Play 5.2 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.4 29.8
Run Ratio 35.8% 46.1%
Starting Field Pos 25.9 26.9
Game Control -0.8 0.8

Points 27.4 22.4

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SEA	17 – 9 W	2.5	50.0% / 40.0%	8.7% / 10.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	6.2 / 4.5	35.5% / 38.9%	19.4% / 50.0%	2.8 / 5.0	77 / 48	44.6% / 44.4%	44.2% / 39.6%	37.8% / 58.7%	4.8 / 4.7	0.0% / 2.1%	40.3% / 37.5%	25.9 / 27.5
2	@ATL	23 – 34 L	-12.4	50.9% / 51.6%	5.7% / 9.7%	2.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 7.2	56.3% / 55.6%	25.0% / 18.5%	3.8 / 5.2	69 / 58	53.8% / 55.3%	52.2% / 53.4%	24.2% / 50.0%	5.3 / 6.3	1.4% / 0.0%	23.2% / 46.6%	22.1 / 26.7
3	CIN	27 – 24 W	-6.6	43.8% / 53.3%	12.5% / 10.0%	2.4% / 0.0%	5.8 / 6.4	47.1% / 32.3%	29.4% / 29.0%	3.8 / 3.6	65 / 61	44.0% / 46.8%	44.6% / 42.6%	58.1% / 31.8%	5.3 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.6%	26.2% / 50.8%	25.8 / 26.5
4	CHI	35 – 14 W	16.9	41.4% / 38.2%	6.9% / 2.9%	0.0% / 6.1%	5.8 / 6.0	48.0% / 40.0%	4.0% / 26.7%	3.7 / 3.4	54 / 64	43.2% / 36.0%	44.4% / 39.1%	50.6% / 25.6%	4.8 / 4.8	0.0% / 3.1%	46.3% / 46.9%	33.5 / 28.5
5	@DAL	35 – 31 W	-4.2	51.5% / 59.5%	12.1% / 2.7%	0.0% / 2.8%	5.5 / 6.6	64.0% / 60.0%	12.0% / 14.3%	6.4 / 4.7	58 / 72	58.0% / 57.9%	56.9% / 59.7%	43.3% / 28.7%	5.9 / 5.7	1.7% / 2.8%	43.1% / 48.6%	22.3 / 25.7

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NO	29 – 19 W	6.6	63.6% / 60.5%	3.0% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.3 / 7.5	27.3% / 28.6%	33.3% / 14.3%	4.0 / 2.9	66 / 59	44.7% / 52.1%	45.5% / 49.2%	68.0% / 29.9%	7.2 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 35.6%	24.9 / 22.4
2	@PIT	9 – 26 L	-9.3	32.5% / 40.5%	5.0% / 5.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.7 / 6.3	50.0% / 41.2%	25.0% / 20.6%	4.6 / 3.1	60 / 71	42.9% / 48.1%	38.3% / 40.8%	45.1% / 34.1%	4.0 / 4.7	1.7% / 0.0%	33.3% / 47.9%	23.9 / 31.8
3	TB	34 – 17 W	13.1	63.6% / 57.1%	0.0% / 4.8%	0.0% / 7.5%	11.2 / 7.5	37.5% / 44.4%	12.5% / 11.1%	3.2 / 2.9	73 / 51	52.7% / 60.0%	49.3% / 54.9%	45.3% / 16.7%	6.8 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	54.8% / 17.6%	27.3 / 24.8
4	DET	7 – 14 L	-2.8	40.6% / 40.5%	6.3% / 16.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 4.2	63.6% / 32.4%	9.1% / 29.4%	4.0 / 2.9	54 / 71	55.8% / 43.4%	50.0% / 36.6%	42.3% / 31.1%	5.3 / 3.6	5.6% / 0.0%	40.7% / 47.9%	25.2 / 30.0
5	@CHI	20 – 17 W	0.9	50.0% / 37.0%	11.1% / 3.7%	0.0% / 3.8%	3.9 / 5.9	35.5% / 48.3%	25.8% / 13.8%	5.1 / 4.0	67 / 56	44.2% / 46.5%	43.3% / 42.9%	30.3% / 34.7%	4.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.8%	46.3% / 51.8%	30.9 / 26.6

Green Bay Packers @

Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Oct 15

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis