Game Analysis

Note: This game was released early in the week when Green Bay was a 5.5-point underdog. The line is down to 3.5 now but there is still some value on the Packers (Strong Opinion at +3.5).

2-Star Best Bet – **GREEN BAY (+5.5) over Miami

· Packers’ rookie WR Christian Watson averaged 2.3 targets per game through the first 9 weeks of the season before the first round pick gained Rodgers’ trust which subsequently opened up Green Bay’s offense.

· Watson is averaging 6.6 targets per game since week 10 while the Packers are gaining 0.137 EPA/play (3rd) and rank 3rd in DVOA.

· Miami’s defense has a 30% blitz rate, ranking 7th in the NFL. Rodgers’ first down rate against the blitz is 8 percentage points higher than when not blitzed.

· Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined for 71 receiving yards and a touchdown last week and they could have even more involvement in the passing game in this game as the Dolphins are allowing 6.2 yards per target to running backs (25th).

· Miami’s offense has had a turnstile this season at left guard and the current occupant Robert Jones will struggle against DT Kenny Clark, who has 37 pressures (13th).

· Tua Tagovailoa will be forced to navigate collapsing pockets with one of his top receivers taken away. WR Jaylen Waddle leads NFL averaging 0.64 EPA/target but Green Bay cornerback Jaire Alexander ranks 10th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Our model favors the Dolphins by just 0.3 points, with a predicted total of 46.4 points.

Green Bay is a 2-Star Best Bet at +4.5 or more and a 1-Star Best Bet at +4 (Strong Opinion at -3.5).