Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **First Half Over (23.5 -105) – Green Bay (-3) vs LA RAMS

Alternate play, if you don’t have 1st-Half Totals, is the game over 48 for 2-Stars, 1-Star to 49.

• The Rams should’ve scored more than 18 points last week in Chicago but converted on only 25% of red-zone drives. The Los Angeles offense has a 48.0% success rate (9th), despite a myriad of players sidelined, thanks to Matthew Stafford and head coach Sean McVay, who provide a high floor no matter who else is on the field.
• The Rams have a 76.4% motion rate (4th-highest) and a favorable matchup versus a Packers defense allowing 24% more yards per pass play against motion than when teams don’t motion (28th).
• Green Bay interior defender Devonte Wyatt ranks 8th in pass-rushing efficiency but he has an ankle injury and was seen wearing a walking boot after the Vikings game. Wyatt is worth 0.6 points by our numbers.
• Los Angeles has an 82.8% zone rate (8th-highest) and they will struggle versus Jordan Love, who is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt against zone coverage since the start of last season (6th).
• Packers WR Jayden Reed leads the NFL with 315 yards versus zone coverage and is averaging a league-high 3.40 yards per route run in the slot. Rams nickelback Quentin Lake is allowing 1.36 yards per cover snap in the slot (7th-worst) and will not be able to stay with Reed.
• Green Bay wide receiver Christian Watson is out with a high-ankle sprain, but the Packers have one of the most capable backup wide receivers in the league in Dontayvion Wicks, who has an 85% separation rate (7th). Watson is only worth 0.4 points over Wicks according to our metrics.
• Los Angeles’ young defensive line has impressed with a 38.5% pressure rate (5th) but they will have a tougher time getting to the quarterback in this game against a Packers’ offensive line that ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.
• I expect Green Bay’s offense to be faster than they have been to this point in the year. Jordan Love is more comfortable with tempo in this offense than backup Malik Willis. Love averaged 0.44 EPA/play in the no-huddle last week versus Minnesota.
• Our model favors the Packers by 1.9 points, with a predicted total of 51.4 points.

The first-half Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 23.5 -115 odds or better and 1-Star to -120 odds. If your line is 24 then play 1-Star on the game Over 49 or less.