Green Bay Packers @

Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Nov 3
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 471
Odds: Los Angeles Chargers +3.5, Total: 48.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – LA CHARGERS (+3.5) over Green Bay

The Chargers fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt and it remains to be seen how the offense will change. Under Whisenhunt, Los Angeles was targeting running backs at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL with Austin Ekeler gaining 2.63 yards per route run (1st) so the new OC would be wise to continue that sort of play-calling. Keenan Allen is one of 15 qualifying wide receivers gaining more than 2 yards per route run but he is unlikely to do much damage in the slot or on the outside in this matchup. Packers’ nickelback Tramon Williams is surrendering just 0.67 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd) and outside cornerback Jaire Alexander leads the league with 14 passes broken up. TE Hunter Henry is averaging 2.38 yards per route run (5th) but I think the Chargers may focus on running the football more with Shane Steichen calling plays. However, the Chargers ground game ranks 30th in efficiency and it would not be wise to run the ball versus the Packers 5th-rated rush defense. Russell Okung did not concede a pressure in his debut last week but he tweaked his calf. Okung’s availability will be vital for Philip Rivers as the other Los Angeles tackles, Trent Scott and Sam Tevi, both rank in the bottom 10 in pass blocking efficiency. Za’Darius Smith ranks 14th in pass rushing efficiency among edge defenders and Preston Smith has a 27% pass rush win rate (4th).

Aaron Rodgers is targeting running backs at the 5th-highest rate in the league under Matt LaFleur and Aaron Jones is gaining 2.38 yards per route run (2nd). The Chargers are allowing 7.2 yards per target to opposing running backs (25th) and Jones is in line for another strong receiving game after his 159 receiving yards last week. Davante Adams was gaining 2.74 yards per route run before getting turf toe and he may return this week, although he will likely be limited by Casey Hayward, who is surrendering 0.85 yards per cover snap (15th). Right tackle Bryan Bulaga ranks 13th in pass blocking efficiency but picked up a finger injury last week. The Packers will need Bulaga fully healthy against Joey Bosa, who ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency among edge defenders. Meanwhile, left tackle David Bakhtiari leads the league with a 95% pass block win rate and should contain Melvin Ingram on the other edge.

Davante Adams and Russell Okung’s statuses will be important to watch come Sunday. Our model currently favors Green Bay by only 1.2 points, with a predicted total of 49.3 points, and the Chargers apply to a 100-42-2 ATS home dog momentum situation based on last week’s upset win at Chicago.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Packers
  • Chargers
GB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.5 37.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.7% 46.7%
  • Sack Rate 5.8% 6.3%
  • Int Rate 0.6% 2.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.1% 20.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 51.4% 50.5%
  • NYPP 7.3 6.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.6 25.6
  • RB YPR 3.5 4.7
  • Stuff Rate 19.4% 16.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.3% 55.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 37.2% 31.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.7




Game

  • All Snaps 63.1 62.6
  • Early Down Succ 51.8% 52.9%
  • Succ Rate 47.9% 50.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 48.5% 46.6%
  • Yards Per Play 5.9 6.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.4 27.0
  • Run Ratio 40.8% 40.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.6 27.9
  • Game Control 5.1 -5.1
 
  • Points 26.9 20.4
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