Game Analysis

Note: The total has gone up to 45 but the Over is still a Strong Opinion at that number.

Strong Opinion – Over (44.5) – Green Bay (-1) vs LAS VEGAS

· Jimmy Garoppolo has a favorable matchup on Monday night versus Green Bay’s zone-blitzing defense. Garoppolo is 5th in EPA/dropback against the blitz and the Packers have a 40.3% blitz rate (5th-highest).

· Garoppolo’s yards per attempt against zone defense is 45% higher than versus man coverage and Green Bay’s defense has an 88% zone rate (2nd).

· Khalil Mack tormented the Las Vegas offensive line last week with 6 sacks. The Raiders only double-teamed Mack on 2 pass rushes. Packers edge defender Rashan Gary has 3.5 sacks (10th) and I expect head coach Josh McDaniels to make sure he doesn’t have the same impact as Mack even if it requires using more blockers in pass protection.

· The Las Vegas interior offensive line is conceding just 39% of the pressures (5th-lowest) and they should contain Green Bay’s pass rush up the middle. Packers’ interior defenders Devonte Wyatt, Kenny Clark, and Karl Brooks have combined for 6.5 sacks.

· Opposing offenses are running 6% more than expected based on the situation versus Joe Barry’s defense. The Raiders rated 20th in rushing efficiency last season but are averaging a league-low -0.26 EPA/rush in 2023. The Las Vegas ground game should be up closer to last year’s mark against Green Bay’s defense.

· The Packers have had 11 days off for WR Christian Watson and RB Aaron Jones to get back to full strength after both were on a pitch count last Thursday night versus the Lions. Watson led Green Bay’s wide receivers with 2.26 yards per route run in 2022. Jones is averaging 1.5 more yards per carry than backup running back AJ Dillon this season.

· Las Vegas will be without starting cornerback Nate Hobbs on Monday night and he’s worth 0.3 points.

· The positive report for Jordan Love’s offensive line is it looks like they will get back starting guard Elgton Jenkins, who allowed just one hurry on 40 pass-blocking snaps sustaining a sprained MCL early in week 2.

· Our model makes Green Bay a 1.0-point favorite with a predicted total of 45.8 points and the matchups favor the over.

The Over is a Strong Opinion at 45 or less.