Game Analysis

DETROIT (-3.5) over Green Bay

• Detroit’s offense ran for 194 yards on 33 attempts last week and has a 46% rush success rate (2nd) on the season and the Lions ground game will be the focal point on Thursday night as the Packers’ rush defense ranks 31st according to our numbers.
• Off the ground game, Detroit’s offense leads the NFL with a 40% play action rate, and Jared Goff will have a favorable matchup as Green Bay’s defense is surrendering 25% more yppp versus play action than no play action (25th).
• Lions TE Sam LaPorta had an 11% target share in the first six games of the year but it is up to 22% in the last 5 games and Goff will feature him against a Packers’ defense that is surrendering a league-high 69% success rate to opposing tight ends.
• Detroit’s starting LT Taylor Decker is likely out and he is worth 0.8 points by our numbers. Decker is allowing a 6.2% pressure rate while his backup Dan Skipper is surrendering a 10.8% pressure rate.
• On defense, the Lions are missing linemen too with interior defenders DJ Reader and Levi Onwuzurike both out. Onwuzurike ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Detroit edge defender Za’Darius Smith has 44 pressures (12th) but he will be contained by RT Zach Tom, who ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency.
• The Lions might not have much of a pass rush, but the coverage could cause Jordan Love to struggle. Green Bay’s yards per attempt against man coverage is a league-low 66% of the yards per attempt versus zone coverage and Detroit’s defense leads the NFL with a 44% man coverage rate.
• Love will need to find his favorable matchup on the inside with Packers WR Jayden Reed, who is averaging 2.30 yards per slot route run (5th). Lions CB Amik Robertson is allowing 1.51 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 18th out of 19 qualifying nickelbacks.
• The Lions have performed very well in games that are projected to be higher scoring, as they are 24-3-1 ATS in their last 28 games when not laying more than 7 points in a game with a total of 45 points or more. They’re also 14-1 ATS in their last 15 home games when not favored by more than 4 points.
• Our model makes Detroit a 3.0-point favorite, with a predicted total of 52.1. I used Detroit in my spread pool on the basis of the favorable team trends.