Game Analysis

DETROIT (-8) vs Green Bay

· The Lions are the only team in the NFL this season to win a game with 4 turnovers after coming back to beat the Bears last week. They’ll have another divisional opponent on Thanksgiving and the Packers’ offense is trending down.

· Packers RB Aaron Jones is out with a sprained MCL and Jordan Love is averaging 0.20 EPA/play fewer with Jones off the field this year.

· Green Bay’s ground game will be completely shut down without Jones as Detroit’s rush defense ranks 5th by our metrics.

· The Packers will also be without starting tight end Luke Musgrave and they have a banged-up wide receiver in Jayden Reed, who has a 56% success rate (19th) but suffered a chest injury in practice earlier this week.

· Lions edge defender Aidan Hutchinson has 58 pressures (3rd) but he will be contained by RT Zach Tom, who ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Green Bay linebacker De’Vondre Campbell suffered a stinger injury in the fourth quarter last game and did not return, but it looks like he’ll suit up for this game.

· The Packers are conceding a 35.3% rush success rate in the games with Campbell on the field but allowed a 44.7% rush success rate in the four weeks without him.

· Detroit’s offense has a 50% success rate on screens (5th) and RB Jahmyr Gibbs had six receptions for 59 yards last week. Campbell’s is Green Bay’s only shot at limiting those and the Packers’ defense will suffer if he has a setback and doesn’t play.

· The Packers are surrendering a 60% success rate to tight ends (29th) and Jared Goff will look for TE Sam LaPorta, who is averaging 0.26 EPA/target (6th).

· The Lions placed starting guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai on injured reserve and backup guard Jonah Jackson is also out. Green Bay interior defender Kenny Clark ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc across from third-stringer Colby Sorsdal, who surrendered 4 pressures last week (8th-most).

· Our model makes Detroit an 8.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 46.3 points.