Green Bay Packers @

Detroit Lions

Sun, Dec 13
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 151
Odds: Detroit Lions +7.5, Total: 55

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (55) – Green Bay (-7.5) vs DETROIT

The Bears have the worst ground game in the NFL by our metrics and even they ran for 4.7 yards per attempt against Detroit’s 27th-rated rush defense last week. The Lions have little chance of slowing down a Packers ground game ranked 5th and RB Aaron Jones should be an effective pass catcher against a Lions’ defense that is surrendering more than 7 yards per target to opposing running backs. Aaron Rodgers averaged 8 yards per pass play last Sunday and it should’ve been even better with three critical drops by Packers receivers. Rodgers and Green Bay’s offense will likely move the ball very efficiently in this game.

Interim head coach Darrell Bevell clearly isn’t interested in maximizing points as he tries to get a full-time gig. The Lions ran the ball on half of early downs despite not having RB D’Andre Swift available through the first three quarters last week (outside of the end of the half) before they needed to throw to make a comeback. However, Matt Stafford averaged 14.3 air yards per attempt even with deep threat Kenny Golladay remaining on the sideline with a hip injury. Golladay would likely be shut down if he returns to action this week, as he’d no doubt receive shadow coverage by Jaire Alexander, who is conceding only 0.73 yards per cover snap (6th).

Our model favors the Packers by 8.1 points, with a predicted total of 52.2 points, and this game applies to a 192-119-1 Under situation. As far as the side, the matchups certainly favor Green Bay but the Packers apply to a negative 45-113-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Packers
  • Lions
GB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 35.8 35.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 54.0% 48.8%
  • Sack Rate 3.2% 7.2%
  • Int Rate 0.9% 2.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.2% 16.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 46.5% 35.4%
  • NYPP 7.7 6.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.4 24.8
  • RB YPR 4.4 4.7
  • Stuff Rate 19.6% 19.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.0% 52.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 38.0% 40.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.7




Game

  • All Snaps 63.2 60.1
  • Early Down Succ 54.7% 52.5%
  • Succ Rate 52.3% 50.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 45.7% 38.0%
  • Yards Per Play 6.3 5.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 31.2 27.3
  • Run Ratio 43.2% 41.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.2 28.2
  • Game Control 5.5 -5.5
 
  • Points 31.6 24.9
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