Green Bay Packers @

Detroit Lions

Sun, Dec 29
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 123
Odds: Detroit Lions +12.5, Total: 43

Game Analysis

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Best Bet – *DETROIT (+12.5) over Green Bay

Lean – Under (43.5)

This line is a classic example of the market overreacting to one prime time game after the Packers destroyed the Vikings last week. Minnesota closed as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday night implying the market had the Vikings clearly better than Green Bay. The Lions closed as an 11.5-point road underdog in Minnesota just 3 weeks ago. Now, we’re seeing the Packers as larger favorites despite the game being played in Detroit. This number is clearly over-inflated even if you believe Green Bay and Minnesota are now equal, as a team that was an 11.5 point road dog at Minny would be a 6.5 point home dog to an equally good team. Detroit is a bit worse than they were a few weeks ago but our model favors the Packers by just 7.7 points.

The Packers will lock up a first round bye with a win but I expect them to take a conservative approach to avoid injuries against an inferior opponent while also playing not to lose rather than to win. Green Bay’s ground game ranks 3rd best in the league but the Lions have the 3rd-rated rush defense. The Packers likely won’t have success running the ball when they are trying to kill the game in the second half. David Blough has a nice opportunity for a backdoor touchdown if Detroit trails late and the most likely outcome for this game is the Lions losing by 10.

Green Bay locked up the NFC North last week and are now overvalued. Our model favors the Packers by just 7.7 with a predicted total of 40.6 points. Detroit is a 1-Star Best Bet at +11 or more and I’ll lean Under the total.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Packers
  • Lions


  • Pass Plays 36.9 37.1
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.2% 45.7%
  • Sack Rate 6.3% 7.2%
  • Int Rate 0.5% 2.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.3% 20.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.2% 48.7%
  • NYPP 6.3 6.6


  • Rush Plays 25.4 25.7
  • RB YPR 4.0 4.5
  • Stuff Rate 18.7% 18.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.9% 52.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 37.5% 31.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.5


  • All Snaps 62.3 62.8
  • Early Down Succ 50.9% 51.2%
  • Succ Rate 46.9% 48.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 42.6% 44.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 5.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.1 27.7
  • Run Ratio 40.7% 41.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.4 28.1
  • Game Control 3.1 -3.1
  • Points 23.5 19.5
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