Game Analysis
Best Bet – *DETROIT (+12.5) over Green Bay
Lean – Under (43.5)
This line is a classic example of the market overreacting to one prime time game after the Packers destroyed the Vikings last week. Minnesota closed as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday night implying the market had the Vikings clearly better than Green Bay. The Lions closed as an 11.5-point road underdog in Minnesota just 3 weeks ago. Now, we’re seeing the Packers as larger favorites despite the game being played in Detroit. This number is clearly over-inflated even if you believe Green Bay and Minnesota are now equal, as a team that was an 11.5 point road dog at Minny would be a 6.5 point home dog to an equally good team. Detroit is a bit worse than they were a few weeks ago but our model favors the Packers by just 7.7 points.
The Packers will lock up a first round bye with a win but I expect them to take a conservative approach to avoid injuries against an inferior opponent while also playing not to lose rather than to win. Green Bay’s ground game ranks 3rd best in the league but the Lions have the 3rd-rated rush defense. The Packers likely won’t have success running the ball when they are trying to kill the game in the second half. David Blough has a nice opportunity for a backdoor touchdown if Detroit trails late and the most likely outcome for this game is the Lions losing by 10.
Green Bay locked up the NFC North last week and are now overvalued. Our model favors the Packers by just 7.7 with a predicted total of 40.6 points. Detroit is a 1-Star Best Bet at +11 or more and I’ll lean Under the total.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.9
37.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.2%
45.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
0.5%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.3%
20.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.2%
48.7%
-
NYPP
6.3
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.4
25.7
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
18.7%
18.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.9%
52.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.5%
31.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
62.3
62.8
-
Early Down Succ
50.9%
51.2%
-
Succ Rate
46.9%
48.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.6%
44.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.1
27.7
-
Run Ratio
40.7%
41.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
28.1
-
Game Control
3.1
-3.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.9
38.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.8%
49.5%
-
Sack Rate
7.3%
4.7%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.2%
23.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
47.5%
45.1%
-
NYPP
6.5
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.5
28.3
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
24.0%
15.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.0%
47.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.8%
30.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
64.4
67.2
-
Early Down Succ
47.7%
50.5%
-
Succ Rate
46.0%
48.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.3%
41.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
28.1
-
Run Ratio
39.8%
42.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.7
25.8
-
Game Control
-0.5
0.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CHI |
10 – 3 W |
2.9 |
40.0% /
34.0% |
14.3% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
4.7 /
4.2 |
22.7% /
40.0% |
36.4% /
26.7% |
2.1 /
3.1 |
57 /
65 |
39.5% /
41.7% |
33.3% /
35.4% |
53.1% /
38.2% |
3.7 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.6% /
23.1% |
30.9 /
22.7 |
| 2 |
MIN |
21 – 16 W |
9.0 |
44.4% /
30.3% |
5.6% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
5.3 /
6.8 |
54.5% /
55.6% |
21.2% /
18.5% |
4.4 /
7.3 |
69 /
60 |
54.7% /
44.7% |
49.3% /
41.7% |
32.5% /
65.6% |
4.9 /
7.0 |
2.9% /
3.3% |
47.8% /
45.0% |
28.5 /
28.7 |
| 3 |
DEN |
27 – 16 W |
7.3 |
37.9% /
45.7% |
0.0% /
17.1% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
8.1 /
4.6 |
52.2% /
60.5% |
17.4% /
13.2% |
3.3 /
3.9 |
52 /
73 |
50.0% /
52.7% |
44.2% /
53.4% |
45.2% /
40.0% |
6.0 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
44.2% /
52.1% |
36.3 /
26.0 |
| 4 |
PHI |
27 – 34 L |
-0.2 |
48.1% /
55.6% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
5.9 |
55.0% /
69.7% |
30.0% /
6.1% |
3.9 /
5.3 |
74 /
60 |
50.8% /
67.3% |
50.0% /
63.3% |
39.5% /
31.3% |
6.6 /
5.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
27.0% /
55.0% |
21.0 /
31.9 |
| 5 |
@DAL |
34 – 24 W |
14.0 |
41.7% /
53.2% |
5.6% /
6.4% |
0.0% /
6.8% |
6.0 /
9.4 |
55.2% /
66.7% |
17.2% /
14.3% |
4.1 /
5.8 |
65 /
68 |
54.9% /
61.7% |
47.7% /
57.4% |
52.5% /
62.3% |
5.2 /
8.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
30.9% |
31.7 /
23.1 |
| 6 |
DET |
23 – 22 W |
-5.8 |
40.0% /
40.0% |
2.5% /
8.6% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
6.9 |
62.1% /
40.0% |
3.4% /
30.0% |
5.9 /
2.8 |
69 /
55 |
53.6% /
45.0% |
49.3% /
40.0% |
49.0% /
58.9% |
6.5 /
5.4 |
2.9% /
0.0% |
42.0% /
36.4% |
21.0 /
33.2 |
| 7 |
OAK |
42 – 24 W |
10.0 |
68.8% /
67.7% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
13.2 /
10.6 |
34.8% /
38.7% |
21.7% /
16.1% |
2.6 /
5.0 |
55 /
62 |
55.8% /
53.1% |
54.5% /
53.2% |
68.4% /
38.0% |
8.7 /
7.8 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
41.8% /
50.0% |
16.6 /
29.3 |
| 8 |
@KC |
31 – 24 W |
3.7 |
52.6% /
47.4% |
13.2% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.6 |
57.7% /
75.0% |
7.7% /
5.0% |
4.5 /
4.4 |
64 /
58 |
55.1% /
57.4% |
54.7% /
56.9% |
48.1% /
38.6% |
5.8 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
40.6% /
34.5% |
26.6 /
28.6 |
| 9 |
@LAC |
11 – 26 L |
-9.8 |
42.1% /
60.0% |
7.9% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
9.4 |
63.6% /
63.2% |
9.1% /
13.2% |
4.1 /
4.2 |
49 /
68 |
55.3% /
66.7% |
46.9% /
61.8% |
0.0% /
37.1% |
3.8 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
22.4% /
55.9% |
25.8 /
29.7 |
| 10 |
CAR |
24 – 16 W |
4.9 |
38.7% /
45.7% |
6.5% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
7.3 /
6.1 |
70.4% /
52.2% |
18.5% /
8.7% |
6.0 /
5.2 |
58 /
69 |
55.1% /
48.3% |
53.4% /
47.8% |
56.2% /
28.7% |
6.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
46.6% /
33.3% |
25.6 /
25.0 |
| 12 |
@SF |
8 – 37 L |
-16.2 |
26.2% /
52.2% |
11.9% /
13.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
1.9 /
9.9 |
39.3% /
36.4% |
35.7% /
31.8% |
4.2 /
5.1 |
70 /
45 |
38.5% /
48.6% |
31.4% /
44.4% |
22.2% /
69.3% |
2.8 /
7.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
48.9% |
25.2 /
40.9 |
| 13 |
@NYG |
31 – 13 W |
8.4 |
51.5% /
40.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
8.1% |
7.4 /
6.5 |
57.7% /
55.6% |
23.1% /
25.9% |
3.0 /
3.5 |
59 /
64 |
54.5% /
47.8% |
54.2% /
46.9% |
44.4% /
42.7% |
5.5 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.1% /
42.2% |
33.1 /
20.4 |
| 14 |
WAS |
20 – 15 W |
9.0 |
43.8% /
35.5% |
12.5% /
12.9% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
5.2 /
4.5 |
60.7% /
60.7% |
17.9% /
25.0% |
6.2 /
4.3 |
60 /
59 |
57.1% /
51.1% |
51.7% /
47.5% |
54.5% /
37.4% |
5.7 /
4.4 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
46.7% /
47.5% |
34.0 /
21.5 |
| 15 |
CHI |
21 – 13 W |
9.0 |
38.2% /
44.6% |
2.9% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
5.6 /
5.7 |
25.0% /
37.0% |
8.3% /
18.5% |
4.2 /
3.6 |
58 /
83 |
32.5% /
42.4% |
32.8% /
42.2% |
51.4% /
31.8% |
5.0 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
41.4% /
32.5% |
38.3 /
26.0 |
| 16 |
@MIN |
23 – 10 W |
0.7 |
48.8% /
32.4% |
7.0% /
13.5% |
2.5% /
3.1% |
4.6 /
2.2 |
53.1% /
37.5% |
12.5% /
18.8% |
5.8 /
3.6 |
75 /
53 |
55.9% /
38.9% |
50.7% /
34.0% |
21.7% /
45.3% |
5.1 /
2.6 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
42.7% /
30.2% |
32.3 /
35.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ARI |
27 – 27 T |
9.4 |
47.9% /
35.6% |
6.3% /
8.5% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
7.5 /
4.7 |
53.1% /
56.5% |
25.0% /
13.0% |
3.6 /
4.9 |
80 /
82 |
57.6% /
41.7% |
50.0% /
41.5% |
45.5% /
39.5% |
6.0 /
4.7 |
2.5% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
28.0% |
26.5 /
28.4 |
| 2 |
LAC |
13 – 10 W |
-1.9 |
56.7% /
43.2% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
6.7% /
2.8% |
8.2 /
7.8 |
50.0% /
52.0% |
17.9% /
16.0% |
3.4 /
5.5 |
58 /
62 |
56.5% /
46.9% |
53.4% /
46.8% |
39.8% /
55.4% |
5.8 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
48.3% /
40.3% |
20.7 /
22.0 |
| 3 |
@PHI |
27 – 24 W |
4.8 |
40.6% /
43.6% |
0.0% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
6.3 |
35.7% /
46.7% |
39.3% /
10.0% |
3.1 /
4.2 |
60 /
69 |
38.6% /
44.4% |
38.3% /
44.9% |
43.2% /
54.4% |
4.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
46.7% /
43.5% |
38.9 /
25.6 |
| 4 |
KC |
30 – 34 L |
1.3 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
10.5% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
7.5 |
65.7% /
60.0% |
20.0% /
24.0% |
5.3 /
4.9 |
73 /
67 |
61.7% /
54.4% |
57.5% /
53.7% |
52.3% /
37.2% |
6.1 /
6.5 |
2.7% /
4.5% |
47.9% /
37.3% |
33.3 /
22.5 |
| 6 |
@GB |
22 – 23 L |
5.8 |
40.0% /
40.0% |
8.6% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
6.9 /
6.9 |
40.0% /
62.1% |
30.0% /
3.4% |
2.8 /
5.9 |
55 /
69 |
45.0% /
53.6% |
40.0% /
49.3% |
58.9% /
49.0% |
5.4 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
36.4% /
42.0% |
33.2 /
21.0 |
| 7 |
MIN |
30 – 42 L |
-2.5 |
53.2% /
67.6% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
9.9 |
55.0% /
54.1% |
10.0% /
13.5% |
4.1 /
4.5 |
67 /
71 |
54.5% /
63.8% |
53.7% /
60.6% |
37.9% /
43.7% |
6.5 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.9% /
52.1% |
24.7 /
23.6 |
| 8 |
NYG |
31 – 26 W |
7.1 |
50.0% /
45.5% |
11.1% /
6.8% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
8.8 /
6.6 |
20.0% /
41.7% |
36.0% /
20.8% |
2.4 /
3.3 |
61 /
68 |
33.3% /
43.4% |
37.7% /
44.1% |
49.9% /
32.7% |
6.1 /
5.4 |
1.6% /
1.5% |
41.0% /
35.3% |
26.4 /
27.7 |
| 9 |
@OAK |
24 – 31 L |
-1.9 |
51.2% /
53.1% |
4.7% /
3.1% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
8.7 |
50.0% /
55.6% |
35.0% /
8.3% |
4.5 /
4.8 |
63 /
68 |
52.0% /
54.7% |
50.8% /
54.4% |
62.4% /
54.0% |
7.5 /
6.6 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
52.9% |
28.6 /
23.7 |
| 10 |
@CHI |
13 – 20 L |
-4.3 |
37.5% /
42.9% |
4.2% /
17.9% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
5.2 |
48.1% /
41.7% |
22.2% /
25.0% |
3.6 /
3.4 |
75 /
52 |
44.4% /
48.7% |
41.3% /
42.3% |
28.3% /
25.2% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.0% /
46.2% |
30.0 /
25.8 |
| 11 |
DAL |
27 – 35 L |
-2.6 |
41.4% /
59.6% |
10.3% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
9.2 |
57.1% /
45.8% |
21.4% /
12.5% |
4.3 /
3.1 |
57 /
71 |
51.2% /
56.4% |
49.1% /
54.9% |
63.1% /
41.7% |
5.5 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
49.1% /
33.8% |
29.0 /
20.5 |
| 12 |
@WAS |
16 – 19 L |
-2.2 |
35.9% /
33.3% |
15.4% /
9.1% |
9.1% /
3.3% |
4.8 /
4.4 |
53.1% /
33.3% |
15.6% /
16.7% |
5.5 /
3.6 |
71 /
57 |
44.6% /
36.6% |
43.7% /
33.3% |
37.4% /
49.6% |
5.1 /
4.0 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
45.1% /
42.1% |
32.1 /
30.8 |
| 13 |
CHI |
20 – 24 L |
3.8 |
40.0% /
61.5% |
5.0% /
2.6% |
2.6% /
2.6% |
6.5 /
8.5 |
51.9% /
47.8% |
18.5% /
21.7% |
3.9 /
3.8 |
67 /
62 |
44.0% /
60.0% |
44.8% /
56.5% |
47.5% /
26.5% |
5.4 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
37.1% |
31.1 /
24.1 |
| 14 |
@MIN |
7 – 20 L |
-12.0 |
48.9% /
54.8% |
11.1% /
3.2% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
7.5 |
59.1% /
38.5% |
22.7% /
20.5% |
3.2 /
3.1 |
67 /
70 |
54.0% /
50.0% |
52.2% /
45.7% |
10.0% /
29.7% |
3.4 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.8% /
55.7% |
24.9 /
29.0 |
| 15 |
TB |
17 – 38 L |
-13.5 |
35.6% /
59.1% |
4.4% /
4.5% |
4.7% /
2.4% |
5.6 /
10.1 |
44.4% /
31.0% |
27.8% /
17.2% |
2.5 /
1.7 |
63 /
73 |
37.0% /
49.1% |
38.1% /
47.9% |
45.8% /
60.4% |
4.7 /
6.8 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
39.7% |
28.4 /
30.2 |
| 16 |
@DEN |
17 – 27 L |
0.5 |
28.6% /
52.9% |
14.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.4 /
5.8 |
52.4% /
48.5% |
19.0% /
9.1% |
4.6 /
4.5 |
49 /
67 |
40.5% /
53.8% |
38.8% /
50.7% |
27.7% /
27.3% |
3.9 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
49.3% |
22.8 /
32.2 |
Green Bay Packers
@ 
Detroit Lions