Green Bay Packers @

Detroit Lions

Sun, Dec 31
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 303
Odds: Detroit Lions -6.5, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Green Bay (+6.5) vs DETROIT

Lean – Under (43.5)

Note: We released Green Bay at +7.5 as a 2-Star Best Bet to our subscribers on Tuesday morning and the line dropped to 6.5. Today (Friday) we recommended that they play Detroit -6.5 for 1-Star to diminish some of the risk, as 6 Packers players that were listed as questionable were downgraded to out.

We still think there is value on Green Bay, but I’d just lean with the Packers at +6.5 now.

The Lions were eliminated from playoff contention with their loss in Cincinnati last week and it’s hard to imagine we’ll see their best effort in this meaningless game. Detroit, missing three starters on the offensive line, gained just 4.7 yards per play against the Bengals and I don’t see much incentive to rush T.J. Lang, Ricky Wagner, and Travis Swanson back this week.

Meanwhile, Brett Hundley will be playing for a new contract and Green Bay’s offense has a favorable matchup this week. My metrics show Hundley is adding nearly a half point per rush this season (he’s averaging 7.7 ypr) and the Packers’ 3rd-ranked ground game should find success against Detroit’s 25th ranked rush defense.

Clay Matthews could miss his second-straight game but I don’t think his impact will be felt as much as years past. Matthews ranks just 44th (out of 63 qualified edge rushers) in pressures this season and Green Bay was able to hold the Vikings to just 4.1 yards per play without him in the lineup last week (excluding kneel downs). The Packers 16 point loss to Minnesota was a bit misleading, as Green Bay had some good opportunities to score and they were only outgained by 1 yard (239 yards to 240 yards, before kneel downs). Detroit should be able to throw the ball but laying more than a touchdown is too much based on my ratings, which favor the Lions by just 2 points in this game.

In addition to the line value, Green Bay applies to a 123-41-2 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and a 67-21-2 ATS division road dog revenge situation. Detroit, meanwhile, applies to a 2-28 ATS final game situation. Also, teams at 8-7 are just 9-27 ATS hosting a losing team, including 4-20 ATS if the visiting team is off a loss. Green Bay is in a good situation with good line value and I’ll take Green Bay in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 1-Star down to +6 points. I’ll also lean Under 43 points or higher based on a 690-498-16 (58%) under situation that is even better in recent years (169-95-2 ATS since 2012).

Note: Six players on the Packers that were listed as questionable that are now out, we’ve decided to take 1-Star off the table and play the Lions for 1-Star at -6.5 (only for those of you that got +7 or more with Green Bay). There is about a 6% chance of a middle with the game landing on Detroit by 7, which more than makes up for the juice we are losing. None of the 6 players are actually vital players, as we figured Matthews to be out again (he’s actually still questionable) and WR Davante Adams, who will sit, is only averaging 7.6 yards per target, which is not hard to replace. Still, we prefer to have less risk. Those of you that played the game for 1-Star at +6.5 should just leave that bet alone, as there is still some value on Green Bay.

 

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Packers
  • Lions
GB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.4 34.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 42.7% 48.8%
  • Sack Rate 8.3% 6.9%
  • Int Rate 2.9% 2.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 15.4% 18.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 33.0% 39.3%
  • NYPP 5.2 6.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.5 30.5
  • RB YPR 4.0 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 19.2% 24.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.2% 41.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 31.3% 42.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.5 3.9




Game

  • All Snaps 62.9 65.1
  • Early Down Succ 48.6% 47.1%
  • Succ Rate 46.4% 45.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.0% 40.5%
  • Yards Per Play 5.0 5.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.7 29.4
  • Run Ratio 39.4% 46.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.4 29.3
  • Game Control -2.4 2.4
 
  • Points 20.6 23.3
Share This