Green Bay Packers @

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Oct 6
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 473
Odds: Dallas Cowboys -3.5, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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DALLAS (-3.5) vs Green Bay

Dak Prescott is averaging the 5th-highest time to throw, at 2.71 seconds, but he may not have time that luxury this week with left tackle Tyron Smith injured. We have Smith as the most valuable offensive lineman in the league, worth 1.2 points, and Prescott was pressured on 4 of 7 dropbacks once he was sidelined last week. Since 2016, the Cowboys offensive line has averaged 2.98 seconds to hurry and a 5.9% sack rate with Smith on the field compared to 2.74 seconds to hurry with a 9.7% sack rate without him. The Packers’ new edge signings Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith both rank in the top 10 in pass rush efficiency and should cause problems for Prescott on Sunday. Meanwhile, Kenny Clark and Dean Lowry are two of the 20 interior defenders with double-digit pressures thus far but they will likely be limited by guards Zack Martin and Connor Williams as well as center Travis Frederick, who have all combined to surrender just 1 sack this season. Amari Cooper is gaining 2.22 yards per route run (11th) but should be blanketed by Green Bay’s excellent cornerback Jaire Alexander. However, Michael Gallup was gaining 4.35 yards per route run before his injury and he is now expected to return this week. Ezekiel Elliott is off to a slow start, averaging only 0.11 missed tackles forced per rush, and this probably isn’t the matchup for him to turn it around. Green Bay’s rush defense ranks 11th in the league led by Blake Martinez and Dean Lowry, who both have double-digit run stops already.

Aaron Rodgers is gaining 6.5 yards per pass play, which is his highest mark since 2014 and I expect him to continue improving as he gains comfort in the new scheme. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga has yet to allow a sack and he should keep Pro Bowl edge rusher Demarcus Lawrence in front of him. However, it may be difficult for Rodgers this week against a Dallas pass defense rated 4th and with Davante Adams, gaining 2.74 yards per route run (2nd), unlikely to take the field on Sunday.

Two key injuries will greatly affect both offenses with Tyron Smith and Davante Adams out. Our model favors Dallas by 3.3 points with a predicted total of 48.4. I’ll pass.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Packers
  • Cowboys


  • Pass Plays 38.5 36.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 42.6% 41.4%
  • Sack Rate 5.4% 7.5%
  • Int Rate 0.5% 3.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 20.3% 16.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 45.2% 45.9%
  • NYPP 6.5 5.4


  • Rush Plays 24.5 28.3
  • RB YPR 2.9 4.9
  • Stuff Rate 26.2% 16.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 46.1% 56.4%
  • Big Rush Yards 34.3% 33.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.4 4.9


  • All Snaps 63.0 64.5
  • Early Down Succ 48.8% 51.6%
  • Succ Rate 44.2% 48.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 42.6% 43.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.3 5.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 1.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.2 27.4
  • Run Ratio 39.4% 43.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.2 27.3
  • Game Control 4.7 -4.7
  • Points 21.3 17.3
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