Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *CHICAGO (+5.5) over Green Bay

Lean – Over (40)

• The Bears fired Shane Waldron and Thomas Brown took over as offensive coordinator. There will be an improvement, but it will be due to the offensive line and not necessarily the new play-calling.
• Chicago starting LT Braxton Jones went down with a knee injury 18 snaps into week 8 and the Bears were without his backup Kiran Amegadjie was also sidelined against the Commanders. This caused a massive shuffle of Chicago’s offensive line, particularly when starting RT Darnell Wright went out the next week. The Bears have had a league-high 11 offensive linemen take 20+ snaps this season.
• In the last 3 weeks the Commanders had a 63% pressure rate, the Cardinals had a 42% pressure rate, and the Patriots had a 39% pressure rate against Chicago’s patchwork offensive line.
• The Bears will have Jones and Wright on the field this week and Caleb Williams will be protected enough for wide receiver DJ Moore to be featured with the new offensive coordinator in a favorable matchup across from CB Eric Stokes, who is allowing 1.36 yards per cover snap rankings 63rd out of 74 qualifying cornerbacks.
• Thomas Brown’s offense ranked 32nd in pass-play rate versus expectation when he was the play-caller for the Panthers periodically last year. I have my doubts about going run-heavy in the back half of the season but in this particular game, it will be advantageous as the Packers have the worst rush defense in the NFL according to our metrics.
• Green Bay’s offense has a 64% motion rate (9th-highest) but Matt LaFleur will not fool Chicago’s defense with a yppp allowed versus motion that is 90% of the yppp allowed when teams do not motion (3rd).
• Bears CB Jaylon Johnson is conceding 0.63 yards per cover snap (5th) and he will likely contain WR Romeo Doubs, who has a 62% success rate (6th).
• Our model favors the Packers by just 0.3 points, with a predicted total of 43.8.

Chicago is a 1-Star Best Bet at +4.5 or more (Strong Opinion at +4).