Game Analysis

Lean – Green Bay (+1) over CHICAGO

· Justin Fields has more rushing EPA in his first two seasons in the league than any quarterback in our database, including Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton. However, he’s finished last or close to it in yards per pass play in both seasons with a 3.6% career interception rate to boot.

· QB rushing production has less variance than passing and Fields will have a real receiving corps for the first time after the Bears traded for wide receiver DJ Moore, who had a great season in 2020 where he finished 8th in yards per route run with Teddy Bridgewater throwing him the ball.

· I’m not optimistic about Chicago’s offensive line. I expect LT Braxton Jones in year 2 to get slightly better but he only has 5th-round pedigree which likely puts a ceiling on his potential.

· The Bears brought in Nate Davis to play guard, but he has been one of the worst interior linemen in the NFL since he entered the league. Last year he was serviceable, but I wouldn’t expect him to give production above 0.3 points better than replacement level.

· Chicago drafted tackle Darnell Wright with the 10th overall pick. We’ve seen tackles from this range come in and succeed – like Rashawn Slater – but we’ve also seen them struggle. Giants Evan Neal was drafted 7th overall and ranked 2nd-worst in pass-blocking efficiency on true pass sets on 56 qualifiers last year.

· Defensively the Packers return basically the same unit besides top snap earner safety Adrian Amos. He didn’t play up to his usual standard last year though. Amos ranked 65th in PFF grade out of 69 qualifying safeties. Darnell Savage ranked dead last. It’s hard to expect Green Bay’s defense to get worse play from their safeties this year even after losing Amos.

· The Packers will also have back edge defender Rashan Gary, who was 5th in pass-rushing efficiency through the first half of the season before tearing his ACL.

· Jordan Love had only 86 passing plays in his first two seasons. The 6.8 yppp was nice, but the 3.6% interception rate was not. I think it’s fair to say Green Bay’s offense has one of the widest ranges of outcomes in the league.

· The Packers’ receiving corps is rough unless they can get solid production from one of their second-round picks (WR Jayden Reed &TE Luke Musgrave) or second-year WR Christian Watson makes the leap. Watson averaged 3.32 yards per route run against man coverage as a rookie which ranked 5th in the NFL – between AJ Brown and Justin Jefferson. Watson is out for the Packers to start the season though.

· Green Bay LT David Bakhtiari looks like he’ll be healthy for the first time in two seasons, and they return every starter from a unit that rated 5th in pass block win rate.

· Chicago’s defense splurged at linebacker, using $20 million in cap space this season on newcomers Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards. However, the Bears did not make any major upgrades to a pass rush that had a league-low 24% pressure rate last year.

· Chicago signed edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue to a 1 year $10.5 million contract which is a classic case of a team paying for sacks, not pressures (which we know are a better future predictor of sacks). Of the 104 players with 300+ pass-rushing snaps, Ngakoue had the 4th-lowest pressure-to-sack ratio falling into a sack every 3.7 pressures.

· The Bears secondary has some question marks planning to start second-round rookie Tyrique Stevenson along with rolling out Kyler Godon at nickelback again. Gordon surrendered nearly 2 yards per slot cover snap in 2022 ranking 65th out of 68 qualifiers.

· Our model favors the Packers by 0.5 points with a predicted total of 42.4.