Game Analysis

Lean – Green Bay (-4) over CHICAGO

· Justin Fields will likely be back on the field this week providing a major upgrade from backup Trevor Siemian last game. Chicago’s offense averaged +0.093 EPA/play from week 7 to week 11 (6th).

· Fields will not have his top WR on Sunday. Darnell Mooney leads the Bears with 40 catches and 493 receiving yards this season but is believed to have a high ankle sprain.

· Chicago tight end Cole Kmet is averaging 3.6 targets per game only behind Mooney and Chase Claypool on the team. Kmet’s workload is likely to increase with Mooney out, but Green Bay’s defense is allowing only 5.9 yards per target to TEs (7th).

· The Packers are surrendering a league-high 47.0% rush success rate and they will struggle to stop the Bears 9th-rated ground game.

· Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered bruised ribs late in last Sunday night’s game and did not return, but he should be back under center this week.

· Chicago’s defense is allowing league-high 0.206 EPA/play since week 9 after trading LB Roquan Smith and edge defender Robert Quinn.

· The Bears have the worst defensive front in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per rush (24th) and with a league-low 20.2% pressure rate.

· Now, Bears safety Eddie Jackson has a Lisfranc injury in his left foot and he’s out for the season. Jackson has four interceptions through 12 games and ranks 14th in coverage grade by PFF. Chicago’s defense will also be without another starting safety Jaquan Brisker.

· I expect Rodgers to pick on backup nickelback Jaylon Jones in this matchup. Allen Lazard is gaining 2.01 yards per route run in the slot (7th).

· Green Bay’s offense has a 45.4% rush success rate (3rd) and they can go to the ground game if Rodgers’ oblique flares up.

· Our model favors the Packers by 6.5 points, with a predicted total of 46.3 points.