Green Bay Packers @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Oct 17
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 255
Odds: Chicago Bears +5, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – CHICAGO (+5) over Green Bay

Justin Fields has targeted an open receiver on only 32% of his passes this year, the lowest rate among 37 qualified QBs. However, I think Allen Robinson should be able to find some space on Sunday as Green Bay’s defense will once again be without Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander. Backup CB Isaac Yiadom is surrendering 1.75 yards per cover snap while CB Kevin King is banged-up with a shoulder injury and allowing 1.60 yards per cover snap.

Bears RT Germain Ifedi sustained a knee injury late in the first half of last Sunday’s game in Las Vegas and will not be available for this game. Ifedi was conceding a 4.2% pressure rate and backup tackle Elijah Wilkinson allowed a 6.1% pressure rate last season with Denver. Packers edge rusher Rashan Gary has 18 pressures (17th) and will make it tough for Wilkinson to step in the starting role this week.

Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers are somehow conducting our 7th-rated offense with only one true receiving threat. Davante Adams accounted for 60% of Green Bay’s receiving yards and 50% of the first downs against the Bengals. Aaron Jones was averaging 4.4 targets per game last year which ranked 7th among running backs, but the Packers are ranked below average targeting RBs on 18.8% of passes this season.

Our model makes Green Bay a 5.6-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.4 points but Chicago applies to a very good 82-21-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation and I’ll lean with the Bears based on that.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Packers
  • Bears
GB
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.2 37.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.0% 51.1%
  • Sack Rate 6.2% 4.8%
  • Int Rate 1.7% 2.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 25.4% 13.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 44.1% 32.6%
  • NYPP 7.3 6.4



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.2 23.8
  • RB YPR 4.0 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 20.0% 19.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.6% 57.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 27.8% 35.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.2




Game

  • All Snaps 61.4 60.8
  • Early Down Succ 46.8% 56.1%
  • Succ Rate 45.0% 52.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.0% 33.2%
  • Yards Per Play 5.9 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 31.2 29.6
  • Run Ratio 40.6% 39.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 0.6 -0.6
 
  • Points 24.0 24.4
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