Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **ATLANTA (+1.5) over Green Bay

Lean – Over (40.5)

· Desmond Ridder had a 3.5 average depth of target last week (31st) and Atlanta’s underneath bully ball offense sets up well to crush Green Bay’s passive defense.

· The Packers were the only team to not use man coverage on a single snap in week 1 and they surrendered a 47% rush success rate last season (31st) under defensive coordinator Joe Barry. The Falcons were 4th in EPA per rush last year and graded as our 9th-best ground game in week 1.

· Green Bay interior defender Devonte Wyatt had 1.5 sacks last week, but he will be shut down by Atlanta RG Chris Lindstrom, who led the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency last season.

· Ridder should have time in the pocket to take shots on play action where he is averaging a career 11.2 yards per attempt.

· The market is currently implying the Falcons have the 28th-rated offense in the NFL which is way off. Last season, Atlanta’s offense finished 19th in market before Ridder had an entire offseason to improve.

· Green Bay’s offense ranked 6th with 5.5 yards per play in week 1 but their 38% success rate rated 23rd, which is more indicative of future results.

· The Packers offense is trying to be explosive as Jordan Love averaged 10.2 air yards per attempt, but Green Bay’s two most explosive players are not at full strength with RB Aaron Jones and WR Christian Watson nursing hamstring strains.

· Our model favors the Falcons by 2.1 points, with a predicted total of 44.8 points, and Atlanta is a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and 1-Star at pick (Strong Opinion at -1).