Green Bay Packers
@ 
Atlanta Falcons
Game Analysis
Lean – Green Bay (+3) over ATLANTA
A rematch of last season’s NFC Championship will be Atlanta’s first game in their new home. Since 2000, home teams are 11-5 ATS in their first game with a new stadium.
This game will be decided by two of the best quarterbacks in the league. Matt Ryan picked up right where he left off posting a 0.48 EPA/pass play in week 1, even higher than his 0.33 EPA/pass play in last year’s MVP season. However, a lot of that was due to one 88-yard busted play to the tight end on 3rd down and the Falcons still barely got past the Bears, who had 1st down and goal at the 5-yard line in the final minute. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers had a respectable 0.08 EPA/pass play against Seattle’s tough pass defense and overall the Packers are obviously one of the favorites in the NFC – particularly if their defense plays as well as it did last week against the Seahawks. We favor Atlanta by only 2 points and I’d lean with Green Bay at +3 at -115 odds or better.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Packers
- Falcons
Pass
- Pass Plays 46.0 30.0
- Succ Pass Plays 50.0% 40.0%
- Sack Rate 8.7% 10.0%
- Int Rate 2.4% 0.0%
- Deep Pass Rate 14.3% 25.9%
- Big Pass Yards 44.8% 45.9%
- NYPP 6.2 4.5
Rush
- Rush Plays 31.0 18.0
- RB YPR 2.3 3.1
- Stuff Rate 19.4% 50.0%
- Succ Rush Plays 35.5% 38.9%
- Big Rush Yards 14.9% 77.8%
- Yards Per Rush 2.8 5.0
Game
- All Snaps 77.0 48.0
- Early Down Succ 44.6% 44.4%
- Succ Rate 44.2% 39.6%
- Big Yards Rate 37.8% 58.7%
- Yards Per Play 4.8 4.7
- Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 2.1%
- Time Per Play (sec) 30.4 26.3
- Run Ratio 40.3% 37.5%
- Starting Field Pos 25.9 27.5
- Game Control 2.5 -2.5
- Points 17.0 9.0