Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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The Saturday Night Wild Card Game will feature two teams that have stumbled into the playoffs, with Seattle losing their all-world safety, Earl Thomas, and going 2-2 since his departure, while Detroit is on a current 3-game slide. Seattle has given up 25.3 points per contest sans Thomas, after giving up only 16.7 points per contest the previous twelve weeks. Seattle has never lost a game at CenturyLink field during the playoffs as the 12th man has helped the Seahawks go 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS since Paul Allen created the loudest football stadium. While Stafford has never won a playoff game in his two tries, he has thrown for over 300 yards in each contest, averaging a healthy 7.8 NYPP in elimination bouts.

Seattle has allowed greater than 7.0 NYPP in four of the five games Earl Thomas has missed, while holding every other QB not named Tom Brady to under 7.0 NYPP in 2016. The Seattle pass defense has fallen to the 17th ranked defense in the league while becoming highly susceptible to the deep ball without Earl playing centerfield. Offensively the Seahawks have dealt with a bad offensive line all year, as Russell Wilson is being sacked at the 6th highest rate in the league and the running attack is only gaining 3.8 yards per carry. The Lions have trailed in the 4th quarter of every game this season, going 9-7 in aggregate. With a -0.5 Game Control rating and -0.4 yards per play differential the Lions are a below average team that will rely on a banged up Matthew Stafford to once again come through in the high leverage situations. Even with the “best white running back in the league”, the Lions RB’s have only averaged 3.3 yards per carry on the season.

The advanced stats model shows inefficient offenses and value on the road dog, so Lions (+8) and UNDER (43.5) are leans as both are below model-thresholds of plays.

Team Stats
Game Log

Lions
Seahawks

DET

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.3 35.9
Succ Pass Plays 48.3% 51.7%
Sack Rate 6.0% 4.7%
Int Rate 1.6% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 15.3% 17.1%
Big Pass Yards 39.3% 36.8%
NYPP 6.6 7.0

Rush

Rush Plays 22.4 25.3
RB YPR 3.3 4.2
Stuff Rate 24.5% 19.5%
Succ Rush Plays 41.4% 51.9%
Big Rush Yards 36.5% 40.2%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.3

Game

All Snaps 61.7 61.2
Early Down Succ 47.1% 53.7%
Succ Rate 45.7% 50.7%
Big Yards Rate 40.2% 38.1%
Yards Per Play 5.5 5.9
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.3 29.9
Run Ratio 36.4% 41.2%
Starting Field Pos 25.8 26.9
Game Control -0.5 0.5

Points 21.6 22.4

SEA

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.9 36.1
Succ Pass Plays 48.5% 42.9%
Sack Rate 6.8% 6.9%
Int Rate 2.1% 1.9%
Deep Pass Rate 19.6% 22.1%
Big Pass Yards 39.8% 42.9%
NYPP 6.9 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 26.4 28.3
RB YPR 3.6 3.3
Stuff Rate 26.5% 25.7%
Succ Rush Plays 42.3% 42.7%
Big Rush Yards 40.8% 36.0%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 3.3

Game

All Snaps 64.4 64.4
Early Down Succ 49.3% 45.3%
Succ Rate 45.5% 42.6%
Big Yards Rate 41.1% 41.5%
Yards Per Play 5.6 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.1 28.7
Run Ratio 40.8% 44.0%
Starting Field Pos 29.3 28.1
Game Control 2.3 -2.3

Points 22.1 18.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@IND	39 – 35 W	6.8	62.5% / 46.9%	2.5% / 4.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.3 / 7.5	56.0% / 73.7%	16.0% / 10.5%	4.7 / 4.3	65 / 68	63.0% / 53.8%	60.0% / 54.4%	30.5% / 35.3%	6.9 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	38.5% / 27.9%	23.3 / 22.8
2	TEN	15 – 16 L	6.0	36.4% / 47.2%	9.1% / 8.3%	2.5% / 3.0%	5.4 / 6.2	43.5% / 48.0%	21.7% / 20.0%	6.0 / 5.6	67 / 61	37.3% / 50.0%	38.8% / 47.5%	57.6% / 49.7%	5.6 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	34.3% / 41.0%	26.3 / 17.2
3	@GB	27 – 34 L	-14.3	56.8% / 50.0%	6.8% / 7.7%	2.4% / 0.0%	8.4 / 7.7	39.1% / 33.3%	30.4% / 14.8%	2.2 / 4.7	67 / 53	48.1% / 44.7%	50.7% / 41.5%	50.2% / 44.6%	6.2 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	34.3% / 50.9%	22.3 / 33.5
4	@CHI	14 – 17 L	-6.0	47.4% / 57.9%	5.3% / 5.3%	5.6% / 0.0%	5.2 / 7.7	44.4% / 43.8%	33.3% / 25.0%	3.7 / 3.7	56 / 70	50.0% / 60.8%	46.4% / 51.4%	22.1% / 34.5%	4.7 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	32.1% / 45.7%	26.0 / 28.3
5	PHI	24 – 23 W	5.4	41.4% / 52.8%	13.8% / 8.3%	0.0% / 3.0%	5.7 / 6.4	37.9% / 66.7%	34.5% / 19.0%	2.8 / 5.5	58 / 57	41.9% / 60.9%	39.7% / 57.9%	41.5% / 46.0%	4.2 / 6.1	1.7% / 1.8%	50.0% / 36.8%	29.6 / 29.2
6	LA	31 – 28 W	-0.9	56.3% / 66.7%	3.1% / 3.0%	0.0% / 3.1%	8.3 / 9.4	39.3% / 54.5%	28.6% / 31.8%	3.0 / 3.5	60 / 55	48.8% / 62.2%	48.3% / 61.8%	43.4% / 32.3%	5.8 / 7.0	0.0% / 0.0%	46.7% / 40.0%	30.4 / 20.5
7	WAS	20 – 17 W	2.7	50.0% / 56.1%	9.4% / 4.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 6.9	52.6% / 55.2%	15.8% / 10.3%	4.9 / 4.6	51 / 70	54.8% / 54.5%	51.0% / 55.7%	51.2% / 33.3%	6.7 / 6.0	0.0% / 2.9%	37.3% / 41.4%	25.3 / 25.8
8	@HOU	13 – 20 L	-7.3	40.5% / 37.5%	2.4% / 9.4%	0.0% / 3.4%	5.5 / 5.1	28.6% / 32.4%	21.4% / 11.8%	4.1 / 3.2	56 / 66	40.9% / 35.6%	37.5% / 34.8%	28.7% / 31.3%	5.2 / 4.1	0.0% / 0.0%	25.0% / 51.5%	20.9 / 38.4
9	@MIN	22 – 16 W	2.7	47.2% / 57.1%	2.8% / 4.8%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.9 / 6.2	32.0% / 64.0%	40.0% / 24.0%	3.9 / 3.1	61 / 67	38.3% / 64.7%	41.0% / 59.7%	45.0% / 25.8%	5.1 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	41.0% / 37.3%	21.5 / 34.1
11	JAC	26 – 19 W	1.6	47.2% / 40.0%	8.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 5.7%	7.3 / 5.8	13.6% / 37.9%	40.9% / 24.1%	0.7 / 2.9	58 / 64	35.7% / 44.7%	34.5% / 39.1%	45.0% / 25.5%	4.8 / 4.5	3.4% / 1.6%	37.9% / 45.3%	25.5 / 31.9
12	MIN	16 – 13 W	1.0	45.0% / 43.2%	5.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.7%	5.4 / 6.1	42.9% / 50.0%	4.8% / 12.5%	4.5 / 5.1	61 / 53	50.0% / 52.4%	44.3% / 45.3%	45.3% / 35.6%	5.1 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	34.4% / 30.2%	27.3 / 25.2
13	@NO	28 – 13 W	8.5	52.3% / 45.5%	4.5% / 2.3%	0.0% / 7.0%	7.7 / 7.3	52.2% / 66.7%	21.7% / 25.0%	3.7 / 4.2	67 / 56	54.5% / 51.2%	52.2% / 50.0%	35.1% / 37.7%	6.3 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	34.3% / 21.4%	30.4 / 24.2
14	CHI	20 – 17 W	1.4	44.7% / 42.4%	7.9% / 3.0%	5.7% / 0.0%	5.5 / 6.2	41.4% / 47.1%	13.8% / 29.4%	4.0 / 5.4	67 / 50	43.4% / 46.2%	43.3% / 44.0%	33.0% / 46.3%	4.8 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 34.0%	22.6 / 20.4
15	@NYG	6 – 17 L	-5.6	40.0% / 53.3%	2.5% / 6.7%	2.6% / 0.0%	6.7 / 6.2	31.6% / 50.0%	21.1% / 21.9%	2.9 / 3.6	59 / 62	37.8% / 53.2%	37.3% / 51.6%	54.9% / 40.0%	5.5 / 4.8	1.7% / 0.0%	32.2% / 51.6%	23.7 / 25.5
16	@DAL	21 – 42 L	-7.1	50.0% / 72.7%	8.0% / 4.5%	2.2% / 0.0%	4.6 / 9.6	55.0% / 46.7%	20.0% / 26.7%	4.5 / 5.5	70 / 52	51.8% / 59.1%	51.4% / 57.7%	16.3% / 53.1%	4.6 / 7.2	1.4% / 0.0%	28.6% / 57.7%	32.2 / 27.5
17	GB	24 – 31 L	-2.4	55.8% / 57.5%	4.7% / 2.5%	2.4% / 0.0%	7.7 / 7.4	52.4% / 60.0%	28.6% / 5.7%	3.6 / 4.5	64 / 75	57.7% / 66.1%	54.7% / 58.7%	42.9% / 38.8%	6.4 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	32.8% / 46.7%	25.5 / 26.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	MIA	12 – 10 W	1.6	50.0% / 21.2%	6.5% / 12.1%	2.3% / 0.0%	5.2 / 4.8	50.0% / 35.0%	21.9% / 30.0%	3.5 / 3.2	78 / 53	54.2% / 28.2%	50.0% / 26.4%	19.6% / 53.2%	4.5 / 4.2	1.3% / 0.0%	41.0% / 37.7%	22.5 / 32.1
2	@LA	3 – 9 L	-2.9	37.8% / 39.4%	5.4% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 6.6	33.3% / 29.6%	45.8% / 25.9%	2.8 / 2.4	61 / 60	37.5% / 40.9%	36.1% / 35.0%	44.8% / 41.4%	5.0 / 4.8	3.3% / 0.0%	39.3% / 45.0%	17.0 / 23.7
3	SF	37 – 18 W	19.7	50.0% / 28.0%	5.9% / 0.0%	3.1% / 4.0%	8.6 / 4.8	36.4% / 38.7%	27.3% / 16.1%	3.9 / 4.4	67 / 56	40.0% / 35.0%	43.3% / 33.9%	49.9% / 25.2%	6.3 / 4.5	1.5% / 0.0%	49.3% / 55.4%	35.1 / 33.6
4	@NYJ	27 – 17 W	5.2	61.8% / 40.0%	5.9% / 8.9%	0.0% / 7.3%	8.5 / 5.5	31.0% / 30.0%	31.0% / 25.0%	2.4 / 2.9	63 / 65	57.4% / 32.7%	47.6% / 36.9%	56.3% / 16.7%	5.7 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	46.0% / 30.8%	32.8 / 20.3
6	ATL	26 – 24 W	2.4	60.5% / 45.7%	2.6% / 8.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	6.9 / 6.7	41.9% / 44.4%	16.1% / 22.2%	2.4 / 2.9	69 / 64	63.3% / 49.0%	52.2% / 45.3%	20.8% / 40.9%	4.9 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.6%	44.9% / 28.1%	37.4 / 21.0
7	@ARI	6 – 6 T	-1.7	34.2% / 43.4%	2.6% / 7.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.4 / 5.9	36.8% / 54.1%	31.6% / 24.3%	2.7 / 3.6	57 / 90	39.5% / 47.8%	35.1% / 47.8%	26.5% / 33.4%	4.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	33.3% / 41.1%	25.1 / 28.5
8	@NO	20 – 25 L	2.7	48.6% / 62.2%	2.9% / 5.4%	2.9% / 0.0%	8.1 / 6.8	76.5% / 40.0%	17.6% / 14.3%	4.4 / 3.5	52 / 72	61.0% / 49.1%	57.7% / 51.4%	35.1% / 28.8%	6.9 / 5.2	0.0% / 1.4%	32.7% / 48.6%	27.1 / 26.9
9	BUF	31 – 25 W	4.1	63.3% / 55.8%	13.3% / 11.6%	0.0% / 2.6%	8.2 / 6.1	38.5% / 57.9%	38.5% / 15.8%	2.6 / 4.3	43 / 81	64.7% / 54.0%	55.8% / 56.8%	29.7% / 30.6%	6.5 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	30.2% / 46.9%	30.6 / 31.4
10	@NE	31 – 24 W	1.0	57.5% / 55.9%	7.5% / 5.9%	0.0% / 3.1%	8.1 / 8.9	46.2% / 53.6%	19.2% / 28.6%	3.7 / 2.9	66 / 62	53.7% / 54.9%	53.0% / 54.8%	39.8% / 44.2%	6.4 / 6.2	0.0% / 1.6%	39.4% / 45.2%	28.5 / 26.1
11	PHI	26 – 15 W	9.7	45.5% / 46.8%	3.0% / 4.3%	0.0% / 4.4%	8.7 / 4.1	29.4% / 61.5%	20.6% / 23.1%	4.6 / 4.3	67 / 73	43.5% / 57.4%	37.3% / 52.1%	57.2% / 30.5%	6.6 / 4.2	0.0% / 0.0%	50.7% / 35.6%	32.4 / 23.4
12	@TB	5 – 14 L	-10.5	30.8% / 53.6%	15.4% / 0.0%	6.1% / 3.6%	3.0 / 7.9	54.5% / 41.0%	13.6% / 17.9%	5.8 / 3.1	61 / 67	44.9% / 54.0%	39.3% / 46.3%	30.6% / 31.4%	4.0 / 5.1	1.6% / 1.5%	36.1% / 58.2%	21.5 / 33.2
13	CAR	40 – 7 W	17.3	52.4% / 30.3%	7.1% / 0.0%	2.6% / 3.0%	7.0 / 5.5	44.8% / 42.9%	27.6% / 33.3%	8.3 / 4.2	71 / 54	50.0% / 34.1%	49.3% / 35.2%	62.5% / 51.3%	7.5 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.9%	40.8% / 38.9%	29.5 / 30.5
14	@GB	10 – 38 L	-16.0	47.6% / 53.8%	7.1% / 3.8%	12.8% / 0.0%	5.2 / 9.1	57.7% / 36.4%	11.5% / 27.3%	5.2 / 2.9	68 / 59	52.7% / 53.7%	51.5% / 44.1%	32.5% / 56.2%	5.2 / 5.6	1.5% / 0.0%	38.2% / 55.9%	26.2 / 39.6
15	LA	24 – 3 W	9.4	46.4% / 30.8%	7.1% / 10.3%	3.8% / 0.0%	8.1 / 3.5	27.3% / 29.4%	36.4% / 47.1%	2.3 / 2.8	61 / 56	35.0% / 35.0%	36.1% / 30.4%	51.3% / 50.3%	5.0 / 3.3	0.0% / 0.0%	54.1% / 30.4%	33.8 / 21.1
16	ARI	31 – 34 L	-7.1	45.1% / 39.3%	11.8% / 3.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.1 / 9.9	44.4% / 43.3%	37.0% / 33.3%	2.9 / 3.2	78 / 58	45.8% / 48.9%	44.9% / 41.4%	50.4% / 70.9%	5.0 / 6.4	1.3% / 1.7%	34.6% / 51.7%	34.9 / 30.1
17	@SF	25 – 23 W	1.5	45.0% / 40.7%	5.0% / 18.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.2 / 7.1	28.6% / 45.5%	28.6% / 27.3%	3.2 / 1.9	68 / 60	46.0% / 50.0%	38.2% / 43.3%	51.1% / 59.4%	5.6 / 4.2	0.0% / 3.3%	41.2% / 55.0%	33.8 / 27.6

Detroit Lions @

Seattle Seahawks

Sat, Jan 7

5:15 PM Pacific

Game Analysis