Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (43.5) – NY JETS vs Detroit

Lean – NY JETS (-1.5)

· Zach Wilson will be back under center for the Jets on Sunday. Wilson was benched after averaging -0.307 EPA/play in New England. Wilson’s -0.055 EPA/play before the second Patriots game is roughly equivalent to Matt Ryan’s EPA/play this season. I do think Wilson is a downgrade from White, but this isn’t suddenly the worst offense in the league. However, the Lions could be the worst defense in the NFL according to our ratings.

· Detroit’s defense has been better lately, but I think the improvement is overblown. Kirk Cousins got anything he wanted last week, averaging 8.8 yppp, and Minnesota’s offense would’ve likely scored 30 points last week if Dalvin Cook hadn’t fumbled at Detroit’s 3 yard line.

· Mike White averaged 6.8 yppp after taking over the starting role for New York but he went against two of the NFL’s worst pass defenses in his three starts. The Bears are allowing 7.1 yppp (31st) and the Vikings are allowing a league-high 7.2 yppp. Wilson would have improved his numbers if he had gotten those starts.

· The average defensive EPA rank the Lions have faced during their six-straight covers is 23rd. The Jets are conceding -0.058 EPA/play (6th), which is a significant upgrade from what Detroit has faced.

· However, New York’s defense might be without their best player on Sunday. DT Quinnen Williams leads all interior defenders in pass rushing efficiency, but he will be hampered at best which will give Jared Goff more time to throw than he otherwise would have had.

· Goff was under pressure on just 23% of his dropbacks last week and it might not be much higher in this game.

· Our model favors Detroit by 1.7 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points, but the Lions apply to a negative 66-139-5 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their recent run of success while the Jets apply to a 105-48-3 ATS home off 2 road losses angle.

Over 44 or less or less is a 1-Star Best Bet.