Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Over (50) Detroit-Minnesota

Lean – MINNESOTA (-1.5)

• Jared Goff led the NFL with 0.57 EPA/play last week and he averaged 10.2 air yards per attempt, which was his highest since joining the Lions.
• Goff was 6-of-7 for 178 yards under pressure versus the Cowboys and he’s shown an ability to handle collapsing pockets better than in years past.
• Detroit’s yards per attempt versus the blitz is 35% more than its yards per attempt against a standard pass rush and Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will find avenues to attack a Vikings defense with a league-high 52% blitz rate.
• Minnesota’s defense has an 8% sack rate (8th) but Detroit’s offensive line is the best in the NFL with center Frank Ragnow back on the field and Goff only has a 12% disruptive pressure rate (2nd).
• Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown had a season-low 15% target share against the Cowboys, but he will be a major aspect of the game plan on Sunday in a significantly more favorable matchup. Minnesota’s nickelbacks are allowing 0.41 more yards per cover snap in the slot than Dallas nickelback Jourdan Lewis.
• Detroit edge defender Aidan Hutchinson had immediate surgery to repair a broken tibia and will miss the rest of the season. Hutchinson is responsible for 55% of Lions pressures, making him the most indispensable pass rusher in the NFL. Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby led the league accounting for 41% of the Las Vegas pressures last year and Hutchinson was pacing to blow that mark out of the water.
• The less discussed loss on Detroit’s defense is starting cornerback Carlton Davis, who left last game due to a concussion. Lions’ backup Kindle Vildor will struggle when lined up across from WR Justin Jefferson, who is averaging 0.59 EPA/target (5th).
• Detroit’s defense calls Cover 1 at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL, and it will likely increase as defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn compensates for the pass-rushing loss of Hutchinson by blitzing more. However, the Vikings are averaging 45% more yppp versus Cover 1 than other coverages this year (6th).
• There’s an outside shot Minnesota tight end TJ Hockenson will suit up for his first game this week. Hockenson averaged 1.89 yards per route run last year (4th).
• These two teams lead the NFL in point differential. Every team in the NFC North has a better point differential than every other team in the league. I can’t imagine that’s happened before in league history where one division is the top 4 teams in scoring margin this late into the season.
• Our model favors the Vikings by 1.5 points, with a predicted total of 53.4 points.

Over 50.5 points or less is a Strong Opinion.