Detroit Lions @

Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Sep 25
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 469
Odds: Minnesota Vikings -6, Total: 52.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Detroit (+6) over MINNESOTA

· We’ve seen good Kirk and bad Kirk in the first two games this season. Cousins gained 8.2 yppp versus the Packers and 4.2 yppp against the Eagles. I think we are more likely to see good Kirk this Sunday.

· Detroit’s defense plays man-coverage 46.5% of the time, which ranks second in the NFL. Man-coverage is not going to work against two of the league’s top route runners in Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

· Lions edge defender Aidan Hutchinson had three sacks in the first half last week, but he will be shut down by Vikings RT Brian O’Neill, who ranked 5th in pass blocking efficiency last year.

· Minnesota rookie RG Ed Ingram is going to have his hands full with Detroit interior defender John Cominsky, who ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency.

· Jared Goff has a 15% touchdown rate to start the season (2nd), but his career TD rate is just 7% so Goff will regress.

· Goff has a connection on the inside with WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is averaging 108.6 yards from scrimmage and 1.0 touchdowns over his last eight games. St. Brown has a favorable matchup this week versus Vikings nickelback Chandon Sullivan, who is surrendering 1.50 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th-worst). Pro Bowl safety Harrison Smith also supports in coverage underneath, but he might miss this game with a concussion.

· Lions RB D’Andre Swift is averaging 4.65 yards per carry before contact this season – benefiting from huge holes created by the offensive line. We have Minnesota’s rush defense rated below average as new defensive coordinator Ed Donatell’s scheme uses light box counts.

· Our model has the Vikings by 3.7 points with a predicted total of 50.4.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Lions
  • Vikings
DET
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00



Rush


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00




Game

  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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