Detroit Lions @

Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Nov 8
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 457
Odds: Minnesota Vikings -3.5, Total: 51

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – Detroit (+3.5) over MINNESOTA

Matt Stafford didn’t practice all week due to a possible covid case but he is on track to play this game. However, the loss of Kenny Golladay has a major impact for the Lions offensively. Golladay is one of the league’s premier deep threats and Stafford posted season-low marks in average air yards per attempt in weeks 1-2 with Golladay on the sideline. Our metrics have him valued at 1.2 points.

No quarterback is throwing a higher percentage of passes with at least 20 air yards than Kirk Cousins and I could see the Vikings hit some deep shots on Sunday. The Lions are surrendering a 19% explosive passing play percentage (30th) and allowing opponents an NFL-high 15% deep-ball rate this season. Rookie CB Jeffrey Okudah is surrendering 1.83 yards per cover snap, which ranks 71st out of 74 qualifying cornerbacks. Adam Thielen┬áhas been overshadowed by rookie WR Justin Jefferson’s league leading 3.09 yards per route run, but Thielen should dominate when lined up across from Okudah this week. Edge defender Romeo Okwara 3rd in pass rushing efficiency and Detroit’s defense added Pro Bowl DE Everson Griffen. However, his impact will be offset by the loss of DE Trey Flowers, who was put on the injured reserve list with a wrist injury.

Our model favors the Vikings by 1.0 point with a predicted total of 51.7 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Lions
  • Vikings
DET
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.3 34.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.5% 52.1%
  • Sack Rate 8.2% 2.9%
  • Int Rate 1.8% 2.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.1% 24.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 40.3% 37.8%
  • NYPP 6.4 6.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.7 30.0
  • RB YPR 4.2 5.3
  • Stuff Rate 20.5% 12.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.5% 57.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 41.3% 50.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.1 5.6




Game

  • All Snaps 64.0 64.7
  • Early Down Succ 49.6% 58.7%
  • Succ Rate 47.4% 54.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.9% 42.8%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 6.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 28.1
  • Run Ratio 40.0% 46.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.8 25.5
  • Game Control 0.1 -0.1
 
  • Points 23.3 30.7
Share This