Game Analysis
Detroit (-3) vs MIAMI
Brock Osweiler looked great in his first start shredding the vaunted Bears defense for 8.6 yards per pass play, but it’s worth noting that 76% of his yards came after the catch. Chicago’s defense clearly tired in the heat, as the Bears surrendered 5.2 yards per play through the first 3 quarters compared to 12.3 yards per play in the 4th quarter and overtime. It will be hot in Miami again this week and Detroit will need to focus on their tackling late in the game as Albert Wilson ranks 3rd among wide receivers with 10 forced missed tackles. Still, I expect the Dolphins to rely on their 7th-rated ground game this Sunday against a Lions rush defense ranked 29th.
I imagine Detroit used their bye week to restructure their rushing attack as LeGarrette Blount and Kerryon Johnson are basically splitting the carries thus far despite Johnson having a success rate 16 percentage points higher than Blount. Matt Stafford ranks 11th in expected points added per play among qualifying quarterbacks according to our metrics and he should find success against a Dolphins defense conceding 7.5 yards per pass play (29th).
Our model favors Detroit by 1.9 points with their extra rest. Single-digit road favorites off a bye week have been historically good bets (72-43 ATS) but I’ll pass on this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.6
29.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.3%
58.4%
-
Sack Rate
6.6%
11.1%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.0%
19.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.7%
36.6%
-
NYPP
7.5
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.2
29.6
-
RB YPR
4.1
5.1
-
Stuff Rate
20.9%
17.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.4%
48.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.3%
49.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
5.0
Game
-
All Snaps
61.8
59.4
-
Early Down Succ
46.1%
55.9%
-
Succ Rate
46.1%
53.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.0%
43.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.3
29.7
-
Run Ratio
39.4%
48.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.6
28.3
-
Game Control
0.6
-0.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
28.8
35.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.2%
50.5%
-
Sack Rate
7.2%
4.9%
-
Int Rate
4.4%
5.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.3%
20.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.4%
43.2%
-
NYPP
7.7
8.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.0
30.7
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
24.8%
20.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.2%
39.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.5%
41.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
53.8
66.3
-
Early Down Succ
48.2%
45.2%
-
Succ Rate
46.6%
44.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.6%
43.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.5%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
32.1
30.5
-
Run Ratio
46.0%
46.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.7
25.5
-
Game Control
-0.8
0.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYJ |
17 – 48 L |
-11.9 |
44.2% /
65.2% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
9.6% /
4.8% |
5.8 /
7.8 |
37.5% /
32.6% |
25.0% /
9.3% |
2.5 /
4.0 |
68 /
66 |
51.0% /
53.8% |
42.6% /
43.9% |
37.9% /
55.1% |
5.0 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
23.5% /
65.2% |
23.0 /
40.7 |
| 2 |
@SF |
27 – 30 L |
-5.3 |
43.6% /
53.1% |
3.6% /
18.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
4.9 |
44.4% /
44.8% |
5.6% /
24.1% |
5.4 /
6.6 |
73 /
61 |
44.6% /
56.3% |
43.8% /
49.2% |
38.4% /
48.7% |
5.8 /
5.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
24.7% /
47.5% |
24.8 /
32.3 |
| 3 |
NE |
26 – 10 W |
8.1 |
61.1% /
42.9% |
2.8% /
7.1% |
2.9% /
3.8% |
7.1 /
4.3 |
45.5% /
57.9% |
21.2% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
69 /
47 |
54.5% /
56.8% |
53.6% /
48.9% |
36.7% /
19.1% |
6.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
40.4% |
30.2 /
26.4 |
| 4 |
@DAL |
24 – 26 L |
-1.7 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
7.7 |
40.0% /
55.6% |
25.0% /
22.2% |
4.8 /
5.1 |
53 /
66 |
47.6% /
56.9% |
49.1% /
53.0% |
64.1% /
51.6% |
7.2 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
54.5% |
23.8 /
21.8 |
| 5 |
GB |
31 – 23 W |
13.9 |
52.9% /
80.6% |
17.6% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.0 /
11.8 |
34.5% /
52.4% |
27.6% /
9.5% |
3.3 /
4.7 |
46 /
57 |
32.6% /
55.6% |
41.3% /
70.2% |
37.7% /
41.2% |
5.8 /
9.2 |
0.0% /
5.3% |
63.0% /
36.8% |
46.1 /
20.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
TEN |
27 – 17 W |
3.5 |
55.2% /
36.8% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
7.1% /
7.9% |
7.7 /
5.8 |
53.3% /
44.8% |
26.7% /
17.2% |
4.1 /
4.0 |
59 /
67 |
66.7% /
41.2% |
54.2% /
40.3% |
44.3% /
17.0% |
5.8 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
43.3% |
35.5 /
29.2 |
| 2 |
@NYJ |
20 – 12 W |
9.2 |
44.4% /
43.2% |
14.8% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
4.5 /
7.3 |
52.9% /
26.3% |
26.5% /
36.8% |
4.1 /
2.2 |
61 /
63 |
55.8% /
39.6% |
49.2% /
38.1% |
36.2% /
50.3% |
4.3 /
5.7 |
3.3% /
1.6% |
55.7% /
30.2% |
34.4 /
24.1 |
| 3 |
OAK |
28 – 20 W |
-2.8 |
48.0% /
57.1% |
4.0% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
5.1% |
13.3 /
7.7 |
20.0% /
55.9% |
33.3% /
14.7% |
2.8 /
3.3 |
40 /
76 |
43.3% /
62.1% |
37.5% /
56.6% |
62.8% /
32.6% |
9.4 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
44.7% |
30.6 /
19.7 |
| 4 |
@NE |
7 – 38 L |
-19.6 |
33.3% /
42.9% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
4.0% /
5.7% |
4.3 /
7.8 |
11.1% /
34.9% |
38.9% /
18.6% |
3.1 /
4.1 |
45 /
78 |
21.2% /
34.5% |
24.4% /
38.5% |
20.9% /
45.1% |
3.8 /
5.8 |
2.2% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
55.1% |
29.5 /
32.0 |
| 5 |
@CIN |
17 – 27 L |
4.6 |
77.3% /
68.2% |
13.6% /
9.1% |
10.5% /
5.0% |
7.7 /
10.4 |
45.5% /
29.6% |
13.6% /
25.9% |
5.8 /
3.9 |
44 /
49 |
48.9% /
45.7% |
61.4% /
46.9% |
25.3% /
52.9% |
6.8 /
6.8 |
2.3% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
55.1% |
25.5 /
22.9 |
| 6 |
CHI |
31 – 28 W |
0.3 |
48.8% /
54.5% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
4.7% /
3.2% |
8.8 /
9.2 |
58.1% /
43.8% |
9.7% /
9.4% |
5.2 /
5.2 |
74 /
65 |
53.4% /
48.0% |
52.7% /
49.2% |
48.2% /
60.7% |
7.3 /
7.2 |
1.4% /
3.1% |
41.9% /
49.2% |
28.7 /
25.3 |
Detroit Lions
@ 
Miami Dolphins